Amid speculation about a reduced US military commitment to security in
the Middle East, Turkey has spotlighted the region’s ability to act as a
disruptive force if its interests are neglected.
اضافة اعلان
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan set off alarm
bells this week, declaring that he was not “positive” about possible Finnish
and Swedish applications for NATO membership in the wake of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine.
NATO membership is contingent on a unanimous vote in
favor by the organization’s 30 members. Turkey has NATO’s second-largest army.
The vast majority of NATO members appear to endorse
Finnish and Swedish membership. NATO members hope to approve the applications
at a summit next month.
A potential Turkish veto would complicate efforts to
maintain trans-Atlantic unity in the face of the Russian invasion.
Erdogan’s pressure tactics mirror the maneuvers of
Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, who threatens EU unity by resisting a
bloc-wide boycott of Russian energy.
Earlier, the UAE and Saudi Arabia rejected US
requests to raise oil production in an effort to lower prices and help Europe
reduce its dependence on Russian energy.
The two Gulf states appear to have since sought to
quietly backtrack on their refusal.
In late April, France’s TotalEnergies chartered a
tanker to load Abu Dhabi crude in early May for Europe, the first such shipment
in two years.
Saudi Arabia has quietly used its regional pricing
mechanisms to redirect from Asia to Europe Arab “medium”, the Saudi crude that
is the closest substitute for the main Russian export blend Urals, for which
European refineries are configured.
Erdogan linked his NATO objection to alleged Finnish
and Swedish support for the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), which has been
designated a terrorist organization by Turkey, the US, and the EU.
The PKK has waged a decades-long insurgency in
southeast Turkey in support of Kurds’ national, ethnic, and cultural rights.
Kurds account for up to 20 per cent of the country’s 84 million population.
Turkey has recently pounded PKK positions in
northern Iraq in a military operation named Operation Claw Lock.
Turkey is at odds with the US over American support
for Syrian Kurds in the fight against Daesh. Turkey asserts that America’s
Syrian Kurdish allies are aligned with the PKK.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu warned
that Turkey opposes a US decision this week to exempt from sanctions against
Syria regions controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
“This is a selective and discriminatory move,”
Cavusoglu said, noting that the exemption did not include Kurdish areas of
Syria controlled by Turkey and its Syrian proxies.
Referring to the NATO membership applications,
Erdogan charged that “Scandinavian countries are like some kind of guest house
for terrorist organizations. They are even in parliament”.
Erdogan’s objections relate primarily to Sweden,
with Finland risking becoming collateral damage.
Sweden is home to a significant Kurdish community
and hosts Europe’s top Kurdish soccer team that empathizes with the PKK and
Turkish Kurdish aspirations. In addition, six Swedish members of parliament are
ethnic Kurds.
Turkey scholar Howard Eissenstat suggested that
Turkey’s NATO objection may be a turning point.
“Much of Turkey’s strategic flexibility has come
from the fact that its priorities are seen as peripheral issues for its most
important Western allies. Finnish and Swedish entry into NATO, in the current
context, absolutely not peripheral,” Eissenstat tweeted.
The Turkish objection demonstrates the Middle East’s
potential to derail US and European policy in other parts of the world.
Turkish mediation in the Ukraine crisis and military support for Ukraine prompted US President Joe Biden to move ahead with plans to upgrade Turkey’s fleet of F-16 fighter planes and discuss selling it newer, advanced F-16 models even though Turkey has neither condemned Russia nor imposed sanctions.
Middle Eastern
states walk a fine line when using their potential to disrupt, to achieve
political goals of their own. The cautious backtracking on Ukraine-related oil
supplies demonstrates the limits and/or risks of Middle Eastern brinkmanship.
So does the fact that Ukraine has moved NATO’s
center of gravity to northern Europe and away from its southern flank, which
Turkey anchors.
Moreover, Turkey risks endangering significant
improvements in its long-strained relations with the US.
Turkish mediation in the Ukraine crisis and military
support for Ukraine prompted US President Joe Biden to move ahead with plans to
upgrade Turkey’s fleet of F-16 fighter planes and discuss selling it newer,
advanced F-16 models even though Turkey
has neither condemned Russia nor imposed sanctions.
Some analysts suggest that Turkey may use its
objection to regain access to the US’ F-35 fighter jet program. The US
cancelled in 2019 a sale of the jet to Turkey after the NATO member acquired
Russia’s S-400 anti-missile defense system.
Erdogan has “done this kind of tactic before. He
will use it as leverage to get a good deal for Turkey,” said retired US Navy
Admiral James Foggo, dean of the Center for Maritime Strategy.
A top aide to Erdogan, Ibrahim Kalin, appeared to
confirm Foggo’s analysis.
“We are not closing the door. But we are basically
raising this issue as a matter of national security for Turkey,” Kalin said,
referring to the Turkish leader’s NATO remarks.
“Of course, we want to have a discussion, a
negotiation with Swedish counterparts.”
Spelling out Turkish demands, Kalin went on to say
that “what needs to be done is clear: they have to stop allowing PKK outlets,
activities, organizations, individuals and other types of presence to... exist
in those countries.”
Erdogan’s brinkmanship may have its limits, but it
illustrates that one ignores the Middle East at one’s peril.
However, engaging Middle Eastern autocrats does not
necessarily mean ignoring their rampant violations of human rights and
repression of freedoms.
For the US and Europe, the trick will be developing
a policy that balances accommodating autocrats’, at times, disruptive demands,
often aimed at ensuring regime survival, with the need to remain loyal to
democratic values amid a struggle over whose values will underwrite a 21st
century world order.
That would require a degree of creative policymaking
and diplomacy that seems to be a rare commodity.
The
writer is an award-winning journalist and scholar, a senior fellow at the
National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute and adjunct senior
fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and blog, The
Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer.
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