It was almost inevitable that the two
reluctant partners, who jointly ruled Sudan for the past four years, were to
fight each other as a political accord to hand over the reins of power to a
civilian rule was to be signed and adopted earlier this month. But the faceoff
between the President of the Sovereignty Council and top army brass, Gen. Abdul
Fattah Al-Burhan, and the head of the notorious militia, the Rapid Support
Forces (RSF), Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, has little to do with restoring
democracy or ending decades of hardship for the people of Sudan. It does,
however, have to do with a power struggle and a fight between forces that
carried out the 2019 military putsch against long-time dictator Omar Al-Bashir.
اضافة اعلان
For the people of Sudan, there is little
sympathy for both men. Burhan and deputy Dagalo have derailed previous attempts
to restore civilian rule, and while the signing last December of the Framework
Agreement was a significant breakthrough, the fact that Dagalo had caveats
about the timeframe for integrating the RSF into the regular army was always
going to be a deal breaker. Other issues for both men involved articles in the
agreement regarding divesting the military from economic activities and
investigating abuses by the military against civilians.
It is not clear how this week's bloody
clashes began or which side to believe when it comes to news from the
battlefield. Both sides claim to have scored significant gains. Still, by
Monday evening, it was clear that neither side had come on top and that
skirmishes were taking place in the capital at key points, including the army
headquarters, and elsewhere in the country.
For the people of Sudan, there is little sympathy for both men.
One would assume that the regular army of
about 250,000 well-equipped men backed by fighter jets and heavy armor would
eventually overcome the lightly fitted RSF, whose number is said to be around
100,000. But the RSF is battle-tested, having fought for years in Darfur and
being an elite force that Bashir had selected as his personal militia. In fact,
Dagalo's decision to back the military coup against his boss is also believed
to be instrumental in toppling Bashir's regime.
While Burhan cannot be trusted to oversee
the restoration of civilian rule, the Sudanese army must emerge as the winner
in this confrontation. While difficult to imagine, a defeat of the army would
be catastrophic for Sudan and its territorial integrity. Aside from dire
economic and social conditions, partition and civil strife continue to haunt
the country. Tribes in the economically vital eastern Sudan are becoming
restless, and voices calling for secession are echoing again. Also hanging in
the balance is the future of peace in Darfur and southern Sudan. A prolonged
military confrontation could also trigger tribal wars in different parts of the
country.
One would assume that the regular army of about 250,000 well-equipped men backed by fighter jets and heavy armor would eventually overcome the lightly fitted RSF, whose number is said to be around 100,000.
So far, neither Burhan nor Dagalo has
agreed to a ceasefire or peace talks. Burhan escalated things by disbanding the
RSF and declaring Dagalo a mutineer. For his part, Dagalo has accused Burhan of
leading an Islamist takeover of the country in an attempt to tie the general to
Bashir's backers. Such accusations are meant to send cryptic messages to
outside parties, both regional and beyond, with a vested interest in what is
happening in Sudan.
Interestingly, Israel's Foreign Minister
Eli Cohen, who visited Khartoum last February, warned of a radical Islamist
infiltration in Sudan and confirmed that Israel is trying to calm the situation
there. Both Burhan and Dagalo had met Israeli officials and are on record
supporting normalization of relations between the two countries.
Dagalo has regional connections, and RSF
fighters have been dispatched as mercenaries to fight outside Sudan. This is
probably why Burhan quickly warned foreign parties from interfering in the
current crisis. Dagalo had complained on Saturday that foreign fighter jets had
bombed an RSF position on the Red Sea.
While difficult to imagine, a defeat of the army would be catastrophic for Sudan and its territorial integrity.
The situation in Sudan is critical to the
stability of the immediate region. The US, Russia, Egypt as well as Israel all
have a stake in how things turn out. What is worrying is that neither side will
be able to seal a quick victory. The current conflict could drag on for weeks
and months. If Dagalo is forced out of the capital, he could retreat to Darfur
and wage a guerilla war against the military and inside the cities. In either
case, the country will slide into turmoil, and a humanitarian crisis will soon
ensue.
If a stalemate prevails with no conclusive
end, then mediators may be able to bring the two sides to the table. That may
not be good for the future of Sudan. A situation where both sides remain on the
ground will weaken the country and, more importantly, imperil the
implementation of the Framework Agreement.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and
political commentator based in Amman.
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