Infighting between rebel forces has been a recurring theme
throughout the Syrian civil war, with shifting alliances between armed factions
producing a trail of destruction throughout the country’s north.
اضافة اعلان
But the latest round of clashes, between Hayat
Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) — the former Al Qaeda branch that controls most of Idlib
province — and the Third Legion, a merger of Turkish-backed factions, could be
among the most consequential.
The fighting, which began on October 11, has so far
enabled HTS to seize Afrin, a strategic city in rural Aleppo that had been held
by Turkish-backed forces since its capture from Syrian Kurdish forces in 2018.
However, the goal of HTS, which is led by Syrian militant commander Abu
Mohammed Al Golani, goes beyond mere territorial expansion. The group is trying
to use this opportunity to force the Third Legion, among others, to agree to a
merger with the Salvation Government, a civilian structure established by HTS
to help it govern its territories.
While creating a unified civil administration for
all rebel areas might not be possible now, the ongoing infighting will
undoubtedly redefine power dynamics in Syria’s northwest.
The new clashes were triggered by the assassination
of a prominent Syrian activist and his pregnant wife, on October 7, in Al Bab.
The investigation, led by the Third Legion of the Turkish-backed Syrian
National Army (SNA), found evidence that the victims were killed by a hit squad
linked to the Hamza Division, another SNA group.
The Third Legion tried to capitalize on the public
anger caused by the discovery and launched a campaign to disband the Hamza
Division, starting with the group’s headquarters in Al Bab. HTS, which viewed
the clashes as an opportunity to expand its own influence, allied itself with
the Hamza Division. The Sultan Suleiman Shah Division, an infamous SNA group,
also joined this coalition to settle a score with the Third Legion.
While the Third Legion had initial success against
the Hamza Division, HTS’ intervention quickly tipped the balance to the
division’s favor. Within hours, HTS and its allies took control of Afrin and
its surroundings.
HTS’ swift victory does not come as a surprise. That
is because the group is by far the strongest remaining rebel faction in
northwest Syria, due to its size, discipline, unified structure, and weapons.
In addition, HTS has a long history of brokering deals to divide and neutralize
its enemies. As soon as the fighting started, the group reportedly reached out
to factions within both the Third Legion and the SNA to ensure that they do not
join the fray.
But none of this would have been possible if it were
not for Turkey’s apathetic response to the recent HTS incursion. HTS has long
sought a wider economic and security role in areas beyond Idlib, but until this
month, Turkey’s objections prevented the group from achieving that. This was
evident last June, when Turkey reportedly asked HTS to withdraw from Afrin’s
southwest shortly after establishing a foothold there.
The group’s designation as a terrorist organization, by many governments, including the US and Turkey, will likely reduce the number of humanitarian organizations willing to operate within its areas of control. It will also strengthen the regime’s rhetoric about countering terrorism, leaving civilians to pay the price for HTS’ ambition.
This time, however, Turkey made no similar demand.
The lack of response has been interpreted by many as a green light for HTS to
try and stabilize the region, which has been suffering from chaos and
insecurity.
Still, Ankara does not seem willing to allow HTS to
go beyond Afrin. Various sources have reported that on October 14, Turkey used
its influence to broker a truce between HTS and the Third Legion. Despite a
brief pause in fighting, clashes erupted again with more intensity, and HTS
quickly advanced toward Kafr Jana, in what appeared to be a move to capture
Azaz, northeast of Afrin, close to the Turkish border.
HTS’ ability to make quick gains has pushed Turkey
to intervene once again; Ankara called on HTS to withdraw from Kafr Jana.
Unlike Afrin, HTS’ capture of Azaz could trigger more community resistance,
hinder international aid operations, and diminish the administrative capital of
the opposition’s interim government.
Whatever comes next, HTS has already made several
strategic gains that are difficult to reverse. First, it has established a
foothold outside Idlib, marking the beginning of a likely expansion phase.
While the next target for the upcoming campaign might be Azaz, there is little
doubt about the group’s desire to broaden its influence into other rebel-held
areas further east.
Second, the recent territorial gains will likely
allow HTS’ affiliate Salvation Government to co-opt local governance in and
around Afrin. Doing so would further advance HTS’ goal of creating a unified
administrative structure for all rebel-held areas.
Third, HTS’ expansion to Afrin would likely allow
the group to redefine its relationship with Turkey, which is currently the only
foreign actor capable of reshaping northwest Syria.
Finally, the latest clashes further polarized and
divided HTS’ main rival, the SNA. As a result, SNA leadership no longer seems
able to mediate or solve the problems between its components, which will make
HTS’ divide-and-conquer strategy easier to implement.
Although no one can predict with certainty what the
future holds for Syria’s northwest, HTS’ tightened grip over the region will
have serious implications for the people living there. The group’s designation
as a terrorist organization, by many governments, including the US and Turkey,
will likely reduce the number of humanitarian organizations willing to operate
within its areas of control. It will also strengthen the regime’s rhetoric
about countering terrorism, leaving civilians to pay the price for HTS’
ambition.
Haid Haid is a Syrian columnist and a consulting
associate fellow of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program, Syndication Bureau.
Read more Opinion and Analysis
Jordan News
.jpg)
.jpg)
