Why do I still have a
job?
It is a question readers ask me often, but I mean it
more universally: Why do so many of us still have jobs?
It is 2022, and computers keep stunning us with
their achievements. Artificial intelligence systems are writing, drawing,
creating videos, diagnosing diseases, dreaming up new molecules for medicine
and doing much more to make their parents very proud. Yet somehow we, sacks of
meat, though prone to exhaustion, distraction, injury and sometimes spectacular
error, remain in high demand.
How did this happen? Were not humans supposed to
have been replaced by now — or at least severely undermined by the
indefatigable go-getter robots that were said to be gunning for our jobs?
I have been
thinking about this a lot recently. In part it is because I was among the
worriers — I started warning about the coming robotic threat to human
employment in 2011. As the decade progressed and artificial intelligence
systems began to surpass even their inventors’ expectations, evidence for the
danger seemed to pile up. In 2013, a study by an Oxford economist and an AI
scientist estimated that 47 percent of jobs are “at risk” of being replaced by
computers. In 2017, the McKinsey Global Institute estimated that automation
could displace hundreds of millions of workers by 2030, and global economic
leaders were discussing what to do about the “robocalypse”. In the 2020
campaign, AI’s threat to employment became a topic of presidential debates.
Even then, predictions of robot dominance were not
quite panning out, but the pandemic and its aftermath ought to radically shift
our thinking. Now, as central bankers around the world are rushing to cool
labor markets and tame inflation — a lot of policymakers are hoping that this
week’s employment report shows declining demand for new workers — a few economic
and technological truths have become evident.
First, humans have been underestimated. It turns out
that we (well, many of us) are really amazing at what we do, and for the
foreseeable future we are likely to prove indispensable across a range of
industries, especially column-writing. Computers, meanwhile, have been
overestimated. Though machines can look indomitable in demonstrations, in the
real world AI has turned out to be a poorer replacement for humans than its
boosters have prophesied.
What is more, the entire project of pitting AI
against people is beginning to look pretty silly, because the likeliest outcome
is what has pretty much always happened when humans acquire new technologies —
the technology augments our capabilities rather than replaces us. Is “this time
different”, as many Cassandras took to warning over the past few years? It is
looking like not. Decades from now I suspect we will have seen that artificial
intelligence and people are like peanut butter and jelly: better together.
It was a recent paper by Michael Handel, a
sociologist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that helped me clarify the
picture. Handel has been studying the relationship between technology and jobs
for decades, and he has been skeptical of the claim that technology is
advancing faster than human workers can adapt to the changes. In the recent
analysis, he examined long-term employment trends across more than two dozen
job categories that technologists have warned were particularly vulnerable to
automation. Among these were financial advisers, translators, lawyers, doctors,
fast-food workers, retail workers, truck drivers, journalists and, poetically,
computer programmers.
In 2013, a study by an Oxford economist and an AI scientist estimated that 47 percent of jobs are “at risk” of being replaced by computers. In 2017, the McKinsey Global Institute estimated that automation could displace hundreds of millions of workers by 2030, and global economic leaders were discussing what to do about the “robocalypse”. In the 2020 campaign, AI’s threat to employment became a topic of presidential debates.
His upshot: Humans are pretty handily winning the
job market. Job categories that a few years ago were said to be doomed by AI
are doing just fine. Data shows “little support” for “the idea of a general
acceleration of job loss or a structural break with trends predating the AI
revolution”, Handel writes.
Consider radiologists, high-paid medical doctors who
undergo years of specialty training to diagnose diseases through imaging
procedures like X-rays and MRIs. As a matter of technology, what radiologists
do looks highly susceptible to automation. Machine learning systems have made
computers very good at this sort of task; if you feed a computer enough chest
X-rays showing diseases, for instance, it can learn to diagnose those
conditions — often faster and with accuracy rivaling or exceeding that of human
doctors.
Such developments once provoked alarm in the field.
In 2016, an article in The Journal of the American College of Radiology warned
that machine learning “could end radiology as a thriving speciality”. The same
year, Geoffrey Hinton, one of the originators of machine learning, said that
“people should stop training radiologists now” because it was “completely
obvious that within five years deep learning is going to be better than
radiologists”.
Hinton later added that it could take 10 years, so
he may still prove correct — but Handel points out that the numbers are not
looking good for him. Rather than dying as an occupation, radiology has seen
steady growth; between 2000 and 2019, the number of radiologists whose main
activity was patient care grew by an average of about 15 percent per decade,
Handel found. Some in the field are even worried about a looming shortage of
radiologists that will result in longer turnaround times for imaging diagnoses.
How did radiologists survive the AI invasion? In a
2019 paper in the journal Radiology Artificial Intelligence, Curtis Langlotz, a
radiologist at Stanford, offered a few reasons. One is that humans still
routinely outperform machines — even if computers can get very good at spotting
certain kinds of diseases, they may lack data to diagnose rarer conditions that
human experts with experience can easily spot. Radiologists are also adaptable;
technological advances (like CT scans and MRIs) have been common in the field,
and one of the primary jobs of a human radiologist is to understand and protect
patients against the shortcomings of technologies used in the practice. Other
experts have pointed to the complications of the health care industry —
questions about insurance, liability, patient comfort, ethics and business
consolidation may be just as important to the rollout of a new technology as
its technical performance.
Langlotz concluded that “Will AI replace
radiologists?” is “the wrong question.” Instead, he wrote, “The right answer
is: Radiologists who use AI will replace radiologists who don’t.”
Similar trends have played out in lots of other jobs
thought to vulnerable to AI. Will truck drivers be outmoded by self-driving
trucks? Perhaps someday, but as The New York Times’ AI reporter Cade Metz
recently pointed out, the technology is perpetually just a few years away from
being ready and is “a long way from the moment trucks can drive anywhere on
their own”. No wonder, then, the end of the road for truck drivers is nowhere
near — the government projects that the number of truck-driving jobs will grow
over the next decade.
How about fast-food workers, who were said to be
replaceable by robotic food-prep machines and self-ordering kiosks? They are
safe too, Chris Kempczinski, the CEO of McDonald’s, said in an earnings call
this summer. Even with a shortage of fast-food workers, robots “may be great
for garnering headlines” but are simply “not practical for the vast majority of
restaurants,” he said.
It is possible, even likely, that all of these
systems will improve. But there is no evidence it will happen overnight, or
quickly enough to result in catastrophic job losses in the short term.
“I don’t want to minimize the pain and adjustment costs for
people who are impacted by technological change,” Handel told me. “But when you
look at it, you just don’t see a lot — you just don’t see anything as much as
being claimed.”
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