Democracy is proving to be bad for
the planet.
If that seems like a bold claim,
consider the facts as the 28th UN climate-change conference prepares to
get underway in Dubai next month.
اضافة اعلان
The key item on the agenda at COP28
is to carry out the first “
global stocktake” to determine what progress has been made toward
meeting the goals of the legally binding
2015 Paris Agreement.
Spoiler alert: Not only is the world
hopelessly off-target when it comes to reducing emissions, but the combined
national commitments fall far short of what’s actually needed to keep global
warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The UN has acknowledged that
even if every one of the 193 nations that has issued a Nationally Determined
Contribution sticks to its promises, instead of the 45 percent reduction in
greenhouse gas emissions required by 2030, we would still be on course for
an
increase of 10 percent.
Spoiler alert: Not only is the world hopelessly off-target when it comes to reducing emissions, but the combined national commitments fall far short of what’s actually needed to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
And, of course, few are meeting the
commitments. Why? Because,
says the UN, “quality and ambition
vary, for many reasons, including … insufficient political commitment.”
Being held hostage by politics
In many of the G20 nations,
collectively responsible for
80 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, progress in meeting targets is being
held hostage by politics.
When it comes to climate change,
elected governments are fighting ignorance and self-interest, stirred up by
political rivals, vested commercial interests and libertarian ideologues, all
with something to gain by persuading voters that global warming is a myth and
that any attempt to mitigate it should be resisted as an assault on personal
freedom.
Disturbingly, there is increasing
evidence that governments faced with this type of opposition are sacrificing
the greater good and rowing back on their internationally agreed commitments to
remain in power.
The most egregious example of this is
currently unfolding in the UK.
There, the Conservative party, which
has been in power since 2010 and is struggling badly in the polls, has taken
desperate inspiration from a minor by-election victory in London’s suburbs.
Expected to be ousted, its candidate
instead
retained a slender majority thanks
to opposition to an expansion of London’s clear-air zone at the expense of
motorists in the area. Now, grasping at the possibility of an election-winning
wedge issue, just two years after the UK hosted COP26, Prime Minister Rishi
Sunak has begun to
chuck green policies out
of the basket in a bid to keep his balloon afloat.
Among them, a ban on the sale of new
petrol and diesel vehicles has been pushed back five years, plans for tougher
energy-efficiency ratings for privately rented homes have been shelved and a
pledge to enforce the installation of only low-carbon new heating systems by
2035 has been abandoned.
While he was at it, Sunak announced
that his government was offering 100 new licenses for companies to
drill for oil and gas in the North Sea.
Far from alone in exhibiting
climate-change cowardice
The UK government is far from alone
in exhibiting climate-change cowardice. This summer in Germany, which has
pledged to be climate-neutral by 2045, the coalition government came close to
collapsing over plans to ban the installation of new boilers running on less
than 65 percent renewable fuels by 2024. To save its skin, the government
has
delayed the deadline to
at least 2028.
In France, plans for a carbon tax on
cars introduced in 2018 triggered
widespread demonstrations, leading to the scheme being
dropped.
In Italy a study found that,
regardless of previous voting patterns, owners of polluting vehicles banned in
Milan were significantly more likely to
vote for the populist right-wing party League,
which opposed the ban.
The reality now facing every elected
government hoping to introduce green policies is that, no matter how committed
people might be to recycling plastic, most will draw the line at imposed
measures that hit them directly in their pocket.
Even among voters who accept
“something must be done,” human nature means many will baulk at
making personal sacrifices. It takes a particularly selfless type of individual
to trade immediate personal costs for intangible society-wide benefits in a
distant future.
This is, perhaps, down to a failure
of communication – or a product of green fatigue, induced by endless warnings
of impending doom.
Disturbingly, there is increasing evidence that governments faced with this type of opposition are sacrificing the greater good and rowing back on their internationally agreed commitments to remain in power.
Either way, this is the dangerous
state of play that COP28 will have to address head-on next month if the world is
to stand even half a chance of hitting its climate targets.
Persuasive incentives
Politicians who are serious about
confronting climate challenges, rather than simply hanging on to power, must
deliver persuasive incentives and convincing answers to tough questions.
It is no longer enough to talk about
saving the planet. What governments need now is a better approach to selling
environmental policies to dubious electorates.
The slogan for COP28 is “Bringing the
world together.” Quite how that can be achieved remains to be seen – it can be
only hoped that the UAE has a viable, radical plan for doing so.
But do so it must. The struggle is
too big, and too important, to leave to the mercy of the sort of petty politics
that has, disgracefully, caused the UK to turn its back on the green
commitments it has made.
Jonathan Gornall is a British
journalist, formerly with The Times, who has lived and worked in the Middle
East and is now based in the UK.
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