Three-quarters of a century after independence, India is a nuclear power
about to become the world’s most populous country, and its economy has
overtaken its former coloniser’s to become the globe’s fifth biggest.
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But New Delhi has
challenges to overcome if it is to secure a more central place on the world’s
diplomatic stage, analysts say.
India wants a
permanent seat on the UN Security Council, like the five victors of World War
II, including its former colonial power Britain.
A democracy of
1.4 billion people, India stands as a potential counterweight to Xi Jinping’s
increasingly assertive China and at the intersection of multiple geopolitical
issues.
India is the only
country to be a member of both the Shanghai Cooperation Organization driven by
Moscow and Beijing, and the US-led Quad initiative of democracies aimed at
containing China.
It also
co-founded the BRICS grouping that brings it together with Brazil, Russia,
China and South Africa to challenge the dominant US- and European-led global
governance structures.
For decades,
India marginalized itself diplomatically, content with a role within the
Non-Aligned Movement, which professed equal distance from both Cold War
superpowers, while India shared close ties with Moscow — still its biggest arms
supplier.
Now, a series of
heads of government and foreign ministers have visited in recent months.
In the 21st
century’s changing strategic landscape, India’s “ambition to be present, to be
heard, to shape and to lead is getting stronger”, said Samir Saran, president
of New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation.
But he said the
question remained: “Are we ready to bear the responsibility of being such an
important actor?”
India first
India has a mixed record on the world stage and some compare a
non-committal New Delhi to Beijing’s actions during the Cold War, when China
played both Washington and Moscow to its advantage.
India is the
world’s second-biggest coal user and third-largest carbon emitter, and was
blamed along with China for blocking an international commitment to “phase out”
coal last year.
New Delhi insists
the dirty fuel is essential for an economy attempting to lift millions out of
extreme poverty, and it plans to increase domestic production by 50 percent in
the next two years.
Meanwhile, India
says it will only aim to reach net-zero emissions by 2070 — 20 years later than
a key global goal.
India has a mixed record on the world stage and some compare a non-committal New Delhi to Beijing’s actions during the Cold War, when China played both Washington and Moscow to its advantage.
Three months
after visiting Russian President Vladimir Putin lauded India as “a great power,
a friendly nation and a time-tested friend”, his forces invaded Ukraine.
For months, New
Delhi refused to criticize Moscow’s actions, abstaining from key UN votes, and
as Europe turned away from Russian energy, paying a huge economic price, India
upped its purchases six-fold, taking its two-way trade to an all-time high,
according to official figures.
Window of
opportunity
Several factors have come together to present India with a window of
opportunity, said Tanvi Madan, Washington-based senior fellow with the
Brookings Institution.
Among them are
the increasingly fractious economic relationship between the US and China, and
Beijing’s decision to remain in self-imposed COVID isolation.
“Countries like
the US, some in Europe, others in the Indo-Pacific see India as a geopolitical
counterbalance to China and an economic alternative or a democratic contrast,”
Madan said.
“The big
question” for India, she added, was whether it could “take advantage of this
window before it closes”.
The IMF projects
that India’s economy will expand 6.8 percent this year, more than double the
rate of China, and that it will be the world’s fastest-growing major economy in
2023.
But so far
Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand have proven more attractive than India as
alternative investment destinations to China, despite its vast domestic market,
young and growing population, and widely spoken English.
It also has a
convoluted bureaucracy and tax regime, a legal system where cases can last for
decades, and widespread corruption.
‘Louder, more
present’
The relationship between India and China themselves is strained by
border, trade and technology disputes, and was sent into a deep freeze by a
deadly frontier military clash in 2020.
Xi and Indian
Prime Minister Narendra Modi have not met since, merely “exchanging courtesies”
at the G20 meeting in Indonesia in November.
New Delhi has
been building up its military, including its border defenses and armaments
industry, with a nuclear-powered submarine of its own, and recently unveiled
its first locally made aircraft carrier.
Its low-cost
space program made it only the fourth nation to send an orbiter to Mars, and
it has plans for a manned mission into orbit.
But it remains
well behind China, which has it outmanned and outgunned, having reached those
milestones years ago.
“We’ve probably
never had it as good,” India’s former ambassador to UAE and Egypt Navdeep Suri
told AFP.
Even so, “the
transition to global power will come on the basis of economic and military
strength”, he added. “We are still some distance away from that.”
But as those
capacities increase, said Saran of the Observer Research Foundation, India will
become a “more important and influential voice and a player” in pursuit of its
own interests and values.
“It is not going
to be in service of some other folks’ agendas,” he said.
“We are going to be
louder, more present, and we are going to be more India.”
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