Indonesia’s geopolitical plate is piling up as the archipelago
state prepares to host the G20 summit and associated gatherings in November,
including the Religion 20 (R20), a high-level meeting of religious leaders, the
first under the G20 auspices.
اضافة اعلان
The challenges
and opportunities for Indonesia are multiple and often unique. In June,
Indonesian President Joko Widodo persuaded the leaders of G7, which brings
together Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, the US and the EU, to
join the summit in Bali of the G20, made up of the world’s largest economies,
even if it is attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The G7 leaders
had threatened to boycott the summit if Putin is invited, in protest against
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Even so, much
can derail Widodo’s achievement in the months leading to the summit, although
he has, for now, prevented a fracturing of the G20 before the leaders convene.
Pulling the G20
back from what could have constituted a devastating fiasco is just one of the
pitfalls Indonesia has been seeking to maneuver. With two months to go until
the Bali summit, and a world mired in conflict, division, and economic crisis,
Indonesia’s G20 presidency is hardly out of the woods.
Insisting that
Putin should attend the summit helps Widodo maneuver Indonesia through the
minefields of a world increasingly polarized by the rise of leaders who think
in civilizational rather than national terms, and the power struggle to shape
the world order in the 21st century.
Yet, in a
potential preview of the summit, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov walked
out of a meeting of G20 foreign ministers in Bali in July when Russia came
under fire for its war in Ukraine.
The gathering
ended without the traditional joint communiqué, chairperson’s statement and/or
group photograph. It underscored the fact that Indonesia may have to walk a
diplomatic tightrope to prevent the November summit from fracturing the G20
beyond repair.
Lavrov’s walkout
underscored the risks stemming from the power struggle and the expansionist
ambitions of civilizationalist leaders such as Putin and Chinese President Xi
Jinping.
They threaten to
put a dent in Indonesia’s successful track record of being inspired by the
principles of a 1955 conference in the Indonesian city of Bandung that gave
birth to the non-aligned movement.
That has not
stopped Indonesia from rejecting Chinese claims to territory in the South China
Sea, refusing China’s offer to negotiate maritime boundaries, and at times
conducting military exercises just beyond Chinese-claimed waters while
maintaining substantial economic relations with the People’s Republic.
However,
Indonesia may increasingly find that non-alignment no longer is its best
option, even if that would not necessarily mean that it would pick sides in the
US-China divide.
What it does
mean is that the G20 is the opportunity for Indonesia to showcase itself, on
the back of its diplomatic acumen, as an attractive target for badly needed
foreign investment and a regional power that has long flown under the radar.
Indonesian officials argue that the nature of ASEAN has allowed its 10 members, despite their different political and economic systems, to prevent the once war-torn region from facing another abyss and finding ways to peacefully manage or resolve disputes, and tackle common problems.
One way
Indonesia hopes to make its mark is a summit of religious leaders that is
scheduled to precede the meeting of heads of governments and states. The
religious summit is expected to refashion the G20’s erstwhile Interfaith 20
track or IF20 as Religion 20.
But even that is
not without its pitfalls. Organized by Nahdlatul Ulama, the world’s largest
Muslim civil society movement in the world’s largest Muslim-majority country
and the Islamic world’s foremost democracy, in cooperation with the Indonesian
government, R20 at first glance seems to have significantly shifted away from
the approach of IF20.
In contrast to
the IF20, which was dominated by scholars and activists, R20 intends to bring
together religious leaders to globally position religion as a source of
solutions rather than problems. It is a call that resonates coming from the
world’s most populous Muslim majority country and democracy.
On the surface
of it, R20 constitutes an opportunity to energize the world’s major faith
groups to rally around shared civilizational values that would empower religion
as a force for good which goes beyond lofty statements that are not worth more
than the paper they are written on.
That is a tall
order given the role that religious and identity groups play in perpetuating,
rather than resolving conflicts based on international law, justice, and
equity.
R20 organizers
appear to have opted, at least for now, to co-organize the summit with the
Muslim World League rather than representative non-Muslim faith groups less
beholden to a government.
The league is
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s vehicle to garner religious soft
power, help polish the kingdom’s tarnished image, and propagate a socially
liberal but autocratic interpretation of Islam that preaches absolute obedience
to the ruler.
An R20 press
release quoted the league secretary general, Mohammed Al-Issa, as saying that
“working alongside Nahdlatul Ulama… will strengthen our mission. This
partnership with Nahdlatul Ulama will serve as an excellent platform for
dialogue that will amplify and extend the Muslim World League’s noble mission”.
Even so, R20
could undergird Widodo’s vision of applying the principles of the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to G20.
Indonesian
officials argue that the nature of ASEAN has allowed its 10 members, despite
their different political and economic systems, to prevent the once war-torn
region from facing another abyss and finding ways to peacefully manage or
resolve disputes, and tackle common problems.
Like with the
religious summit, Indonesia faces a tall order in attempting to pull back from
the brink a world consumed by the war in Ukraine as it seeks to maneuver the pitfalls
of mounting tensions between the US and China over issues like Taiwan that,
like Eastern Europe, could spark a war with a global fallout.
James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist and scholar,
adjunct senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam
School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and
blog, The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer.
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