As the bloody crisis in Sudan enters its third month, with
no sign that either party is close to securing a decisive military victory,
worst-case scenarios for the strategic African country are already unfolding.
The war between the Sudanese national army, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan,
and his bitter rival, Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedti), the leader
of the paramilitary
Rapid Support Forces (RSF), is now spreading beyond the
capital Khartoum and its twin sister, Omdurman. Neither side has been able to
take full control of the capital and nearby urban centers. The fact that the
regular army has failed to repulse the lightly armed RSF, at least from
Khartoum, has baffled observers.
اضافة اعلان
It is not clear how the conflict erupted, with both sides
pointing the blame at each other. Burhan claims that Dagalo was not happy with
the Framework Agreement that was supposed to go into effect in early April
because it stipulated that the RSF be merged into the army, thus denying him
control over his own militia, which he used as a mercenary organ engaged in
military adventures outside Sudan. In addition, it would end his control over
the illicit gold mining activities in the country itself. On the other hand,
Dagalo, who was Burhan’s deputy in the Transitional Sovereignty Council, blames
his former partner for staging a coup against the civilians in the government,
forcing a military confrontation after it became clear that Muslim Brotherhood
leaders and remnants of the former regime were calling the shots in the armed
forces.
The war in Sudan is proving to be both complex and multilayered, with multiple actors, including outside powers, and motivations involved. The stakes include a bitter struggle over political power, resource control, and deep ethnic and religious divisions.
Dagalo and Burhan were both instrumental in supporting the
regime of former dictator Omar Al Bashir for many years, and together, they
toppled the civilian government in an October 2021 coup.
The humanitarian catastrophe is spreading with a military
and political impasse kicking in. More than 2.5 million people have been
displaced or with thousands of others seeking refuge in neighboring countries.
So far, more than 2000 people have been killed, but the number is likely to
rise in the coming days.
Entire districts of Khartoum no longer have running water or
electricity, and many hospitals have been taken out of service. Relief efforts
have stalled as the two sides continue to breach short-term truce deals
mediated by the US and Saudi Arabia. The two countries appear to have given up
on negotiating new
ceasefire agreements while a political settlement remains
elusive.
Multiple reports speak of atrocities committed against
civilians, including gang rapes, summary killings, and ethnic cleansing. The
situation in Darfur is especially dire, with reports that Arab militiamen
associated with the Janjaweed, precursor to the RSF, are attacking non-Arab
villages and committing atrocities triggering sectarian and ethnic strife. El
Geneina in Darfur has already been declared a disaster area by the UN and local
officials. On 14 June, the governor of West Darfur was killed, allegedly by
militiamen loyal to Dagalo, after he described the violence in Darfur as
genocide. Some reports have accused the army of committing murder as well. But
the fact that Darfur is traditionally known as a tribal base for Dagalo shifts
attention to the bloody history of the Janjaweed in that province.
The
International Crisis Group has reported that “the
conflict is spreading outside the capital, plunging other areas into horrendous
and, in some cases, inter-ethnic bloodletting. Darfur, long a tinderbox, has
exploded into fighting along ethnic lines with dozens killed and tens of
thousands uprooted from their homes.”
The chaos created by the war and the tensions it is causing
among the tribes is reviving attempts by separatist groups in other parts of
the country. Reports suggest at least 80
armed movements in Sudan, with some
taking up arms against the central government. On Monday, it was reported that
the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North fighters (SPLM-N) attacked army
bases in the Blue Nile and South Kordofan, inflicting heavy losses. The army said
it had repulsed such attacks, but the development is serious since the SPLM-N
had signed a peace agreement with Khartoum. Abdulaziz Al-Hilu leads the rebel
movement, including tens of thousands of men with access to heavy weapons.
Residents said it was not yet clear what position Al-Hilu might take in the
conflict, but the build-up of his forces raised fears of a further outbreak of
clashes.
Dagalo and Burhan were both instrumental in supporting the regime of former dictator Omar Al Bashir for many years, and together, they toppled the civilian government in an October 2021 coup.
With both sides refusing to negotiate, the country quickly
becomes uncertain. A civil war is not far-fetched, while the fears that some
provinces might seek to separate cannot be discounted. Furthermore, the power
vacuum will entice jihadist groups to emerge, a development that
concerns Sudan’s neighbors, especially Egypt. On this subject, the ICG said that “such a
war would likely splinter the country, devastating the population while
creating a haven for jihadist militants, mercenaries and traffickers who in
turn could bedevil the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and the Mediterranean and Red
Sea basins for years to come.”
The war in Sudan is proving to be both complex and
multilayered, with multiple actors, including outside powers, and motivations
involved. The stakes include a bitter struggle over political power, resource
control, and deep ethnic and religious divisions. Beyond the immediate fallout,
there is also the long-term humanitarian catastrophe and regional instability.
Like all regional crises, various countries have adopted conflicting
views on what is happening, and some have taken sides. Some countries, like
China and Russia, support the Sudanese government, while others, including some
Gulf countries, have historical links to rebel groups and the RSF. Others have
taken a more neutral stance—for now.
What matters now is to
save Sudan's territorial and
political integrity, which remains a country rich in natural resources. At the
same time, its stability is geopolitically vital for the Red Sea basin, the
Horn of Africa, and the entire continent. For now, the lesser of the two evils
would seem to back the national army to extend its authority over the whole
country while empowering regional and international bodies to prevent further
internationalizing the crisis. Only then can a political settlement be reached.
A defeat of the national army would sink Sudan into a black hole.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator
based in Amman
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