Two years after the U.S. withdrew from
Afghanistan, countries around the world have begun normalizing ties with the
Taliban. Central Asian states are no exception. But amid fears that the Afghan
rulers could destabilize the region or create a water crisis, and with China
and Russia heavily influencing regional security, Central Asian countries are
proceeding cautiously.
اضافة اعلان
Kazakhstan, the largest country in Central
Asia, insists that
recognition of the Afghan group is off the table. In 2005, the country’s Supreme Court added
the Taliban to its list of
terrorist organizations. But this designation hasn’t prevented the energy-rich country
from strengthening trade cooperation with the “graveyard of empires.”
Looking to increase to $3
billion ‘soon’
Bilateral trade between Afghanistan and
Kazakhstan reached
$1 billion in 2022 and Kazakh authorities are reportedly looking to increase
this to $3 billion “soon.” Afghanistan buys about 60 percent of its imported
flour from Kazakh producers; earlier this month, the two sides struck $200
million in new commercial deals, mainly commitments by Kazakhstan to
supply Afghanistan with
even more of the essential food.
A colossal canal being built by the Taliban could significantly reduce the flow of a regionally-important river, the Amu Darya. This is of great concern to both Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which are located downstream. If the Taliban completes the Qosh Tepa Canal, which is intended to turn Afghanistan’s northern desert into farmland, Uzbek and Turkmen farmers could suffer.
A new trade route to
Pakistan through Afghanistan
Astana also views Afghanistan as an important
transit country, as evidenced by the fact that Kazakhstan
recently sent several trucks on a new trade route to Pakistan through Afghanistan.
Neighboring Uzbekistan has similar geo-economic
goals. On July 18, representatives from Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan
signed a tripartite agreement to
connect the countries by rail. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are looking east to
Pakistan as a significant export destination for their goods, a strategy that
could help reduce the former Soviet republics’ economic and political
dependence on Russia. Afghanistan’s importance as a trade route to South Asia
is a key reason why these countries,
along with Kyrgyzstan, want to normalize ties with the Taliban.
But doing business with the
fundamentalist group won’t be
easy, especially for Uzbekistan. One reason is water.
A colossal canal being built by the Taliban
could significantly reduce the flow of a regionally-important river, the Amu
Darya. This is of great concern to both Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which are
located downstream. If the Taliban completes the Qosh Tepa Canal, which is
intended to turn Afghanistan’s northern desert into farmland, Uzbek and Turkmen
farmers could suffer. There are even fears that the Qosh Tepa could reduce
Uzbekistan’s water reserves and
cause a crippling drought.
Uzbek authorities are
unlikely to jeopardize their relations
Despite these concerns, Uzbek authorities are
unlikely to jeopardize their relations with the Taliban over the project.
Policymakers in Tashkent know that if they attempt to prevent the construction
of the canal, the Taliban could stop Uzbekistan from using a railway route to
Pakistan that enables access to seaports in South Asia.
Tajikistan’s position may be the most difficult
to navigate. Dushanbe considers Taliban-ruled Afghanistan to be a
threat to Tajik national security, which is why it
supports anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan and abroad. More importantly, Tajikistan has
joined Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in
signing a statement that stresses “the priority importance of the rational use
of the water resources of the Amu Darya river.” It’s a clear message to the
Taliban that Tajikistan doesn’t approve of the group’s plans to build the
controversial canal.
A post-America Afghanistan
Central Asian states seem to share
Washington’s
vision of a post-America Afghanistan, where an inclusive,
united, sovereign, and self-reliant country “respects the rights of its
population, including women and girls, and is at peace with itself and its
neighbors.” The US, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and
Kyrgyzstan insist that Afghanistan shouldn’t be used as “a base for hosting,
financing, or exporting terrorism and violent extremism to other countries.”
Thus, even though US troops are no longer on
the ground in Afghanistan, Central Asian countries are acting as Washington’s
partners in their approach to the Taliban government.
Pro-Kremlin media in the region are trying to
upset this balance.
Mars Sariev, a Kyrgyz political scientist, told a Russia-language
newspaper published in Kyrgyzstan that the US will eventually
use the Taliban to destabilize Central Asia and weaken Russian and
Chinese positions in the strategically important region.
Neighboring Uzbekistan has similar geo-economic goals. On July 18, representatives from Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan signed a tripartite agreement to connect the countries by rail. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are looking east to Pakistan as a significant export destination for their goods, a strategy that could help reduce the former Soviet republics’ economic and political dependence on Russia.
“In Afghanistan, all these radical movements
are controlled by Western structures, as well as the Taliban,” Sariev said
earlier this month. “Therefore, the threat in northern Afghanistan against our
republics is now growing.”
One thing is certain
One thing is certain: As the newest iteration
of the Taliban government turns two, Central Asian states will continue
treading carefully, coordinating their Afghan policy not only with the US, but
also with Russia and China. Washington was able to wash its hands of the
troubled country in August 2021. Afghanistan’s neighbors don’t have that
luxury.
Nikola Mikovic is a political analyst in Serbia. His work focuses
mostly on the foreign policies of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, with
special attention on energy and pipeline politics. Twitter: @nikola_mikovic
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