The mainstream
Israeli media and allies of Yair Lapid, the caretaker prime minister, were
quick to declare Israel’s three-day asymmetrical war against Palestinian
Islamic Jihad in Gaza a resounding success.
اضافة اعلان
But the truth is that this unwarranted round of
fighting, from August 5 to 7, not only killed dozens of Palestinians, it left behind dangerous
implications for the region as a whole and Israel itself.
Lapid, who took over recently from Naftali Bennet
and hopes to be elected premier in November, has for years been criticized by
his rival, the former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for lacking the
experience needed to manage security threats.
The war, according to Galia Golan, emeritus
professor of political science at Hebrew University, allowed Lapid to burnish
his security credentials.
“There was no reason this war should have taken
place except to give Lapid a chance to show he is willing to fight,” Golan
said.
Islamic Jihad is a smaller faction than Hamas, the
militant group that rules the Gaza Strip. Both groups believe that all the area
between the Jordan River and Mediterranean Sea is Islamic territory and that
Israel should be destroyed. Israel has fought frequent wars with the
Palestinian factions ever since Hamas gained control of Gaza in 2006. Since
then, Israel’s devastating bombardments have killed thousands and reduced large areas to rubble, while a
blockade of the territory has crippled its economy. Palestinian rocket attacks
have accounted for most of the more than 100 Israeli fatalities. Both sides
have drawn criticism from the international community and human rights groups.
The latest three days of fighting killed 49
Palestinians, mostly civilians, including 17 children, according to the Gaza
health ministry. Some 360 people were injured. Some of the Palestinian deaths
came from Islamic Jihad’s rockets falling short or misfiring. More than 40
Israelis were lightly injured.
In addition to the harrowing human toll, there were
three particularly alarming aspects of this war in terms of the direction of
the broader conflict. Firstly, to modify the famous adage of German strategist
Carl von Clausewitz that war is the continuation of politics by other means,
this war was the continuation of Israel’s endless cycle of electoral politics.
Secondly, the conflict showed that Lapid, if he is elected, will be no more
dovish than his predecessors despite being depicted as a centrist. And thirdly,
that Israeli society and media, with the notable exception of a vanishing left
wing, a handful of pressure groups and Haaretz newspaper, lack the capacity or
desire to engage in critical thinking when it comes to military affairs. This
is dangerous for the future of one of the world’s longest running conflicts.
“The propaganda machinery worked very well,” said
Menachem Klein, emeritus professor of political science at Bar Ilan University.
“There was 24/7 coverage. The stations interviewed
ex-generals who gave the official line. They were slow to show Palestinian
casualties inflicted by the army, but when Islamic Jihad rockets failed and
killed Palestinians, they showed them immediately.”
No Israelis were killed, boosting a manufactured
sense of victory. Typical of the pro-Lapid and pro-army chorus was a column by
Jerusalem Post editor Yaacov Katz, who wrote: “By almost every metric, the
three-day operation called Breaking Dawn was a success. Targets were chosen
carefully and struck surgically.”
He added that the Iron Dome missile shield had
intercepted 96 percent of Islamic Jihad’s
rockets.
Moreover, Lapid had been astute in not drawing Hamas
into the fighting and stopping the bombardments after three days, in contrast
to protracted previous rounds, Israeli media outlets stressed. Hamas is
believed to have stayed out in part to not jeopardize the measured economic
gains for Gaza that came from Israel’s recent decision to allow thousands of
Gazan workers into Israel.
Despite the US and Britain proclaiming support for
Israeli self defense, the issue of whether there was any legitimate reason for
Israel to go to war is very much in the eye of the beholder.
Now we know that Lapid appears willing to play with the lives of Arabs and even Israelis (had more Islamic Jihad rockets got through) for political self interest. Furthermore it is now apparent that Israel’s ever increasing
On August 1, Israel arrested West Bank Islamic Jihad
leader Bassam Saadi in Jenin. Citing intelligence that the group was planning
retaliatory fire at Israeli targets near the Gaza border, Israel, having put
border communities under strictures, launched what it termed a “pre-emptive
strike” by assassinating Tayseer Jaabari, the commander of Islamic Jihad in the
northern Gaza Strip. It did this in the full knowledge this would escalate the
conflict into a war and trigger the firing of hundreds of Islamic Jihad rockets
toward Israel.
Thus Lapid,
counting on the Iron Dome, put Israelis at risk for a limited tactical gain. As
Klein notes, assassinated Islamic Jihad and Hamas leaders are replaceable. The
scholar does not think that assassinations have much long-term impact on these
groups.
“There is no strategic thinking, it is operational
and tactical thinking,” Klein said of Israel’s approach.
Those projecting the war as a victory also held up
the assassination of Khaled Mansour, Islamic Jihad’s commander in the southern
Gaza Strip, as evidence. But Klein differed.
“With this round ending, we return to the same
situation as before,” he said.
But perhaps we are actually wiser now. Now we know
that Lapid appears willing to play with the lives of Arabs and even Israelis
(had more Islamic Jihad rockets got through) for political self interest.
Furthermore it is now apparent that Israel’s ever increasing technological
prowess – as shown in the Iron Dome – makes it more rather than less prone to
engage in escalations that in the future may impact more broadly in the region.
That could cause a wider spiral of violence with the Palestinians and enflame
public opinion in the Arab world.
Ben Lynfield is the former Middle East affairs correspondent at the Jerusalem Post.
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