Full Spectrum Jordan: Jordan, West Bank and What Comes After Friday?

His Majesty again centers the conversation and brings it back to what it should be - a solution to the ongoing violence and an end to Israeli aggression against Palestinians through the formation of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. Jordan, perhaps the most interconnected country with Palestine and Israel, is again at the forefront of a regional ticking time bomb- and this time the implications for us are very dire. 

Three Things You Should Know: 

1. Energy and water:  Israel’s war on Gaza (while they say Hamas, it is all of Gaza cut off from food, water, electricity, and fuel) puts Jordan in a very tight spot. Jordan has some ambitious projects in cooperation with Israel - the gas deal through Chevron, the water agreement, diplomatic protocols. The Jordanian public will have no appetite for further ambitious projects which involve Israel. This gives Jordan very little wiggle room. It also affects Jordan’s already weary economy - the loss of tourism, a potential rise in energy prices, stalled border trade, and a difficult road to re-engaging with Israel on major projects. Does Israel think there will be support for an electricity project in the near future? 
   
   
2. Security: The increased usage of the internet among the younger generation has contributed to what academics are calling “self-radicalization”. In combination with the ongoing occupation of Palestine, the international double standards towards Palestinian life and freedom- this will inevitably lead young men and women to seek out and be more vulnerable to extremist groups - who thrive in situations of injustice and chaos, as I pointed out in a previous newsletter. Not only will young Jordanians be more susceptible to radicalization, but it disengages them more and more from their own state
   
   
3. The Key is the West Bank: Friday - the day Hamas is calling for a general mobilization -could be key to the extent Jordan will be affected and how. If Hamas’s call is answered and the West Bank does revolt, then the course of history will be, yet again, changed in the Middle East. Any reaction from the West Bank could mean two very important and reality changing events 1) collapse of the Palestinian Authority and 2) the scenario Jordan fears -displacement of Palestinians making Jordan, as it longed feared, the alternative homeland.
   

My Take:  Ever since Israel’s revenge response has started, I have been absolutely speechless regarding the reaction of our international “key partners and allies''. The calls for bloodshed, expanded war and an absolute disregard not only of Palestinian lives but future implications to Palestinian statehood and regional stability. Voices like those of US presidential candidate Nikki Haley or UK Home secretary Suella Braverman make media-friendly soundbytes calling for expanded conflict, but we live here. We still need to think of the future and what will result from the complete destruction of Gaza, an unstable Middle East, and Western neocons hoping for a fight with Iran. 

His Majesty King Abdullah II has sounded the alarm many times, sadly it always fell on deaf ears. There will be no peace without a clear and just solution - meaning a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. There must be a rational discussion of protecting civilians and preventing a mass displacement of people. There needs to be planning and diplomacy over the endgame. 

While US president Biden has spent his White House years trying to trump Trump in the Middle East, he ended up reinforcing the former president's policies - the Abraham Accords completely disregarded, excluded, and alienated the region’s voice of reason, Jordan. 

The political solution will be impossible if destruction continues.  Israel’s next steps may not only kill any chance for a political solution but get us all closer to a regional war - as Osama Al Sharif pointed out in his recent piece. The military campaign Netanyahu is pushing and the frenzied global reaction to it makes it harder for voices of reason to be heard. 

Jordan has always been a voice for mediation and diplomacy and always a supporter of Palestinian dignity. Following Jordan’s lead could take us from a fever pitch of escalation to a thoughtful discussion of where does the region go from here, how do we prevent a civilian crisis, and how can we attain the long-elusive peace. 


Katrina Sammour was first published on Full Spectrum Jordan, a weekly newsletter on SubStack. 


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