The Israeli war on Gaza has placed Jordan
in an increasingly delicate position as it navigates the fallout from the
conflict. The kingdom is striving to maintain stability and prevent a nightmare
scenario of the displacement of Palestinians across its borders. At the same
time, Jordan is trying to appease its own population, which is boiling with
anger against the Israeli operation.
اضافة اعلان
It is proving to be a difficult balancing
act. The longer the Israeli-Hamas war drags on, the more Jordan’s concerns
intensify – and for good reason.
More than 1.8 million Palestinians have
been displaced from their homes in Gaza - the highest number since the Nakba in
1948, which led to the formation of the Israeli state. Fueled by comments from
prominent Israelis and leaked plans, fears have grown that Israel is planning
to drive Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt, reopening scars that run deep in
the Palestinian psyche.
The specter of Palestinian refugees fleeing
to the Sinai Peninsula, serves as a haunting prelude to what Jordan fears
Israel could potentially do to Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.
King Abdullah has repeatedly warned against
a regional spillover from the Gaza war and rejected the acceptance of refugees
as a red line. “No, refugees in Jordan, no refugees in Egypt,” he said. This
week, he added: “There will be no solution to the Palestinian issue at Jordan’s
expense.”
“State-backed settler violence against Palestinians has risen in both frequency and intensity, with soldiers and police officers fully backing the assailants and often participating in the attacks,”
A mass displacement of Palestinians to
Jordan could upset the delicate demographic balance and dilute national
identity. More than half of Jordan's population are of Palestinian origin,
including 2.2 million Palestinian refugees registered with the UN. The threat
of a further influx poses an existential threat to the country.
Since Israel’s most right-wing and
religiously conservative government took over last year, the notion that
Palestinians could be expelled from the occupied territories has entered the
mainstream. And Israel has set about creating the conditions that make life
extremely difficult for Palestinians to continue living in the West Bank.
While the world has focused on the shocking
Palestinian death toll in Gaza, with at least 18,000 killed in the past three
months, in the West Bank, 270 Palestinians have been killed by security forces
or Israeli settlers during the same period.
The escalating settler violence in the West
Bank since the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel has added to Jordan’s concern
over a wider conflict that could spark an exodus.
B’Tselem, an Israeli human rights
organization, said Israel has intensified efforts in the West Bank to displace
Palestinian communities and seize their land, using the conflict as a pretext.
“State-backed settler violence against Palestinians has risen in both frequency
and intensity, with soldiers and police officers fully backing the assailants
and often participating in the attacks,” the group said.
Oraib Rantawi, the founder and director
general of the Amman-based Al Quds Center for Political Studies told me that
Jordan is working hard to prevent a wave of displacement from the West Bank to
Jordan. “In response, Jordan can close its borders, deploy troops and declare a
state of emergency,” he said. “When one country displaces people to another
country, it's akin to declaring war.”
In 1994, Jordan became the second Arab
country after Egypt to sign a peace deal with Israel. The agreement included an
article prohibiting the forced displacement of people in a way that could harm
the security of either party. While Rantawi thinks a breach of this article is
unlikely for now, he said Jordan is working to avert this.
Indeed, Jordan sent tanks to the border
last month in a clear message to Israel that it would not accept Palestinians
being pushed into its territory.
There have also been constant provocations
by Israeli settlers at Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, which is under the
custodianship of Jordan. The mosque experiences almost daily incursions by
settlers escorted by Israeli police.
Back home in Jordan, protests persist,
fueled by the distressing scenes of carnage in Gaza and resentment toward the
government. Many Jordanians accuse the government of being subservient to
Israel, citing the $10 billion gas deal signed with Israel in 2016. They also
want Jordan to abrogate its peace treaty with Israel.
For now, Jordan has heightened its
criticism against Israel. Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi has spoken against
Israel repeatedly and called its aggression in Gaza a genocide.
Jordan also summoned its ambassador to
Israel and asked Israel's foreign ministry to instruct its ambassador not to
return to Amman. Safadi also said Jordan would not renew an agreement to supply
energy to Israel in exchange for water, a deal that was initially scheduled for
ratification in October.
Those measures helped in part to placate
public anger. A recent survey showed that 27 percent of Jordanians are highly
satisfied, and 31 percent are moderately satisfied with Jordan’s position
toward the Gaza war.
But severing ties with Israel does not seem
like an option Jordan is considering. Last month, Jordan was among several Arab
countries that refused to break all diplomatic and economic relations with
Israel.
Jordan must also be careful not to upset
Israel’s main ally, the US, which provides Amman with $1.45 billion annually in
economic and military aid under a seven-year agreement signed this year.
But as the war persists, demands increase.
Incidents of violence near the Israeli embassy have been contained by Jordanian
police thus far. Citizens were also given space to vent their anger and even
wave Hamas flags.
As public anger simmers and the government
carefully tries to navigate the unrest pulsing from Gaza, how long can Jordan
remain calm and retain its position as a nation of stability in a sea of
turmoil.
Suha
Ma’ayeh is a journalist based in Amman, Jordan. Her work has been published in
Foreign Policy and CTC Sentinel. She also reports for The Wall Street Journal
and other publications on Jordan and southern Syria.
Disclaimer:
Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Jordan News' point of view.
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