The inter-Libyan dialogue has been going on, at various
levels, for years. It resulted in multiple understandings and agreements, the
most prominent of which was the Skhirat agreement of December 2015, which
established a Presidency Council and an interim government, ending the
duplicity of legislatures that had derailed the political settlement between
various political and militant players in the east, west, and south.
اضافة اعلان
But even that breakthrough had its detractors; chief among
them was the head of the Libyan National Army, Gen. Khalifa Haftar, who in 2020
declared the agreement as “a thing of the past” after he failed to take over
Tripoli by force. And for years, several UN special envoys had tried to close
the gap between the east and the west in a bid to pave the way to hold
presidential and legislative elections and unite the war-torn country once and
for all.
The main question in a post-Gaddafi Libya is who will rule
the vast, oil-rich, sparsely populated North African country? The 79-year-old
dual national, Haftar, believes he should be the next leader. After all, he
controls Benghazi and much of the south, and his troops can overrun the oil
crescent at a moment’s notice. He also enjoys the support of several Gulf
countries, Egypt, and Russia. He is also seen as a staunch Muslim Brotherhood
opponent who happens to influence the UN-backed government in Tripoli, now
headed by Abdul Hamid Al-Dbeibeh, who also has ties to militant groups and
Turkey.
Haftar has relied on the support of the Tubrok-based parliament
speaker, Agilah Saleh. The latter lobbied to fire the Dbeibeh’s government and
named former minister of interior Fathi Bashagha as the new premier earlier this
year.
Having failed to form a government, Bashagha tried to take
over Tripoli by force, only to fail. A stalemate then prevailed.
Saleh also introduced a bill to set up a Constitutional
Court in Benghazi while demoting one with similar powers in Tripoli. That straw
broke all lines of communication between the two sides.
The proposed Constitutional Court is — or believed to be —
intended to pave the way for Haftar to put his presidential election papers in
order, mainly to abolish the previously agreed-upon statute that bars the
candidacy of those with a military background or dual nationality from running.
Meanwhile, a year has passed since the postponement of the
general elections on December 24, 2021. With no new date in sight, Haftar
issued an ultimatum last week, “a final opportunity” to draw up a road map for
new elections. There were speculations that he was close to declaring areas
under his control in the east and south, including Benghazi, as autonomous or
self-governed, which is almost what the case is today.
It is up to the Libyan people and their representatives to save their own country from foreign intervention and what seems to be the plausible scenario of partition.
But international pressure from the US, Italy, Germany, and
the UK hit the brakes on Haftar’s threat. All four countries issued statements
vowing to resort to “alternative mechanisms” unless the Presidential Council
and Parliament agree to a Constitutional framework to hold the delayed
elections.
Under such pressure, Saleh declared that he was not passing
the Constitutional Court bill while he and the head of the Presidential Council
agreed to resume dialogue. Dbeibeh, meanwhile, said he was ready to oversee the
much-awaited elections provided that the next government will not be a
transitional one.
This is not the first time that opponents have agreed to
talk and implement what was embraced in the past. But the reality is that there
are too many players, both domestic and foreign, who are preventing a final
deal. For one, no central government or national armed force controls all of
Libya. Tribal allegiances dictate how armed militias behave and where their
loyalties lie. And political rivalries between the east and west prevent an
accord on who should rule Libya.
Moreover, Libya has become hostage to geopolitical power
struggles with regional powers such as Turkey, Egypt, and some Gulf countries,
putting pressure on various parties. In the bigger picture, the US, Russia, and
Italy, in addition to others, also have interests in how the country will
eventually be run and where its politics will lean.
Another sad reality is that the big powers are too busy
elsewhere to worry about an immediate resolution to the decade-old Libyan
crisis. It is up to the Libyan people and their representatives to save their
own country from foreign intervention and what seems to be the plausible
scenario of partition. Judging from the track record of the various players in
the last few years, discord rather than unity is what to be expected.
Foreign interlocutors will never agree on what is best for
the Libyan people and their future. That has to be decided by Libyans alone,
away from external pressure. Failing to do so, the likely thing to happen is
that Libya will revert to pre-state conditions paving the way for partition
along tribal lines.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator
based in Amman.
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