Repercussions from Hamas’ October 7 attack continue to
reverberate beyond Israel’s borders. In Syria, skirmishes between
Iranian-backed militias, Israeli forces, and American troops are complicating
efforts to contain the fighting.
اضافة اعلان
But as diplomats from Doha to Downing Street race to prevent
a wider war, Russia, a key Syrian ally, has been conspicuously quiet. For
Moscow, chaos may be a means to an end.
After decades of relative calm, fighting along Syria’s
southern border with Israel has returned. Initial clashes involved the exchange
of mortar fire, but tensions escalated significantly on November 10, when an
armed drone reportedly flew more than 400 kilometers from southern Syria across
Jordan to hit an Israeli school in the city of Eilat.
Informed diplomats and analysts tell me that Moscow, despite being among President Bashar Al Assad’s closest allies, isn’t actively trying to mitigate the proxy war in Syria. This contrasts with Moscow’s previous role as mediator in Syria five years ago, when Russia relayed Israeli messages to Iran’s leadership to help contain hostilities in May 2018.
In response, Israel targeted not only the perpetrators of
the attack – without naming them – but also two Syrian airports believed to
serve as transit hubs for weapons to Iranian-backed militias throughout the
region.
While concerns are mounting that these escalations could
turn Syria into a new front in the Israel-Hamas war, Moscow’s attempts to
defuse the situation carry little clout, experts say.
Informed diplomats and analysts tell me that Moscow, despite
being among President Bashar Al Assad’s closest allies, isn’t actively trying
to mitigate the proxy war in Syria. This contrasts with Moscow’s previous role
as mediator in Syria five years ago, when Russia relayed Israeli messages to
Iran’s leadership to help contain hostilities in May 2018.
In explaining the current silence, some sources suggest that
Russia lacks sufficient leverage to influence a de-escalation. With Iran
distancing itself from this round of fighting, Moscow’s ability to get Tehran
to the table is limited.
At the same time, Russia stands to benefit from the
consequences of these escalations, particularly because they’re perceived as
posing no direct threat to Moscow. Dmitry Peskov, the Russian presidential
spokesman, said recently that the Kremlin has “no concerns about Russia being
drawn into the conflict.”
In truth, Russia has done more than observe. The Russian
mercenary organization Wagner Group, which operates in Syria, has been tasked
with delivering Russian-made surface-to-air SA-22 missile defense systems to
Hezbollah, according to American intelligence sources.
Moscow may even be doing more than arming its allies.
Classified documents leaked earlier this year revealed the creation of a
coordination center involving Russia, Iran, and the Syrian regime. Its purpose
is to coordinate efforts to increase risks for United States military personnel
in Syria – and to eventually compel their withdrawal.
To that end, US troops are increasingly under fire. In the
month since Hamas’ attack, US soldiers operating in Syria and Iraq have been
hit by at least 40 separate drone and rocket attacks launched by Iranian-backed
militia groups.
The departure of the US would be a strategic victory for
Moscow, as it would open the door for the Syrian regime to regain control of
the resource-rich northeast, handing Russia substantial financial gains.
Assuming Washington stays put, which seems likely for now,
the next-best outcome is a preoccupied foe. Moscow anticipates that increased
American military support for Israel will divert resources away from
Ukraine.
This is far from wishful thinking. Last month, US President
Joe Biden sent a $106 billion emergency spending package request to Congress,
which included funding for both Israel and Ukraine. Instead of approving the
entire request, Republicans focused their efforts on passing a bill to provide
only $14.3 billion in emergency aid to Israel. The bill passed the House of
Representatives before being blocked by Democrats in the Senate.
At its most basic, Moscow views the Israel-Hamas conflict as a beneficial distraction from the war in Ukraine and its atrocities committed there. The heightened divisions in Europe over Gaza, coupled with a surge in anti-American sentiment across the Middle East and the Global South due to Biden’s unequivocal pro-Israel stance, could hurt America’s diplomacy and image.
Even if Biden does manage to keep Ukraine atop the US
funding agenda, the increased demand for US weapons could prompt Washington to
prioritize deliveries to Israel or split supplies between the two fronts. This
situation might lead to delays in arms deliveries to Ukraine, causing concern
for Kyiv.
At its most basic, Moscow views the Israel-Hamas conflict as
a beneficial distraction from the war in Ukraine and its atrocities committed
there. The heightened divisions in Europe over Gaza, coupled with a surge in
anti-American sentiment across the Middle East and the Global South due to
Biden’s unequivocal pro-Israel stance, could hurt America’s diplomacy and
image.
While the frequency of attacks in Syria against US forces
and toward Israel have increased in recent weeks, Russia is quietly lurking in
the wings, ready to reap the rewards if chaos continues.
Most frustratingly, all Russia needs to do to benefit from
its strategic indifference in Syria is sit back and wait.
Dr Haid is a Syrian
columnist and a consulting associate fellow of Chatham House’s Middle East and
North Africa program. X: @HaidHaid22
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