SEOUL — North Korea has surged ahead during recent years in
an inter-Korean arms race that has led to a proliferation of short-range
missiles on the peninsula and left Pyongyang closer than ever to deploying
tactical nuclear weapons.
اضافة اعلان
North Korea's years-long quest to develop precision missiles
capable of evading detection and striking targets in South Korea has
accelerated in the wake of the country's 2018 self-imposed moratorium on
testing its larger intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
Meanwhile, a 2017 agreement between Washington and Seoul
lifted bilateral limits on South Korean missile payloads, leading to the
development of at least one heavier weapon that could play a key role in
strategies aimed at preempting North Korean attacks or "decapitating"
its leadership.
The new missiles tested by North Korea last week appear
aimed at matching or surpassing South Korea's quietly expanding arsenal, and
are the first such tests since leader Kim Jong Un declared in January that the country
could miniaturize nuclear warheads to fit on tactical weapons, underscoring the
high stakes for the Biden administration as it mulls options for reducing
tensions.
South Korean officials see bigger and better short-range
ballistic missiles (SRBMs) as a way to reduce their dependence on the United
States, which stations around 28,500 troops in South Korea.
In a speech last year, South Korean Defense Minister Jeong
Kyeong-doo boasted that the country had developed a missile with
"sufficient range and the world's largest warhead weight to protect peace
on the Korean Peninsula," referring to the new Hyunmoo-4's 800-kilometer
range and 2-ton payload.
It was likely no coincidence, analysts noted, that North
Korea said its newest SRBM could carry a 2.5-ton warhead.
In a statement on Tuesday, Kim Yo Jong, the leader's sister
and a powerful politician in North Korea, cited Jeong's speech in defending
North Korea's right to develop its own missiles.
"As Seoul has developed new capabilities of this type,
Pyongyang has been close behind," said Joshua Pollack, a researcher at the
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) who co-wrote a report
last year warning that advances in conventional, precision strike missiles in
both Koreas have helped create a new pathway for a crisis to escalate into war.
North Korea says its missiles are for self defense, and has
accused South Korea and the United States of threatening its safety with joint
military drills, arms purchases, and other hostile policies.
At January's ruling party congress, Kim announced that North
Korea had accumulated technology to "miniaturize, lighten, and
standardize" nuclear weapons.
The South's spy agency concluded the latest missiles could
carry nuclear warheads, though it was unclear whether they had ever been
installed, a lawmaker briefed by intelligence officials said on Monday.
"Even short-range North Korean ballistic missiles
should be considered nuclear-capable, based on North Korea's own words,"
said Markus Garlauskas, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council and former US
national intelligence officer for North Korea.
Once the technology is mastered, nuclear warheads can be
lighter than conventional ones, said Markus Schiller, a missile expert based in
Europe.
"A missile does not care the least if it carries a
nuke, a load of TNT, or a piano — only the weight is important," he said.
North Korea's latest missiles have also demonstrated a
capability for flying low and "pulling up" shortly before reaching
their target, making them harder to detect and intercept, said Joseph Dempsey,
a defense researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"If fielded, these new type of SRBMs would allow North
Korea to strike specific targets within South Korea with a much higher degree
of accuracy (than older variants)," he said.
On Friday, 38 North, a US-based think tank, reported that
satellite imagery showed activity at a shipyard suggesting North Korea's new
ballistic missile submarine, under construction for several years, may be nearing
completion.
In a speech on Friday where he discussed North Korea's
tests, South Korean President Moon Jae-in described his country's missile
capability as "world class".
After last year's test of the Hyunmoo-4, South Korea
announced it would also mass produce another type of ground-based missile
designed to destroy underground artillery bases.
"These most recent (North Korean) tests do appear to be
communicating to the South Koreans that they have capability on par or
superseding that of the Hyunmoo-4," said Melissa Hanham, deputy director
of the Open Nuclear Network.
As soon as this year, Seoul may conduct an underwater test
of its first submarine-launched ballistic missile, based on the 500
kilometer-range Hyunmoo-2B, armed with a conventional warhead, and potentially
carried by its new 3,000-ton KSS III submarines, South Korean media reported.
South Korea's defense ministry declined to confirm the
status of specific weapons citing security concerns but said "our military
has built the capability to counter North Korea's short range missiles by
modernizing our forces, and we plan to develop it even further."
Such missiles could bolster two key South Korean strategies:
"Overwhelming Response", which aims to detect planned attacks by
North Korea and "Strategic Target Strike", a counterattack that
includes eliminating North Korean leadership.
.jpg)
.jpg)
