The removal of then-Prime Minister Imran Khan
last April in a vote of no confidence by parliament triggered
a political realignment among Pakistanis that is having ripple effects around
the world.
اضافة اعلان
Networks tied to the two poles in this
conflict — Khan and the country’s army leadership — have brought their battle to the halls of the US Congress,
London’s Mayfair district, as
well as TikTok, Twitter, and YouTube.
The center of gravity is Khan, a celebrity
cricketer-turned-philanthropist and populist politician. Since losing the
support of Pakistan’s powerful generals — a process that began in late 2021 in
part due to a conflict over army personnel
changes — Khan has leveraged his strong organic media reach
and popularity in the diaspora,
introducing new volatility to Pakistani politics. Today, the Pakistan Army is
on the defensive in ways it hasn’t been in more than a decade.
Khan is testing whether the army can maintain
its dominance over the political and information domains in a controlled,
semi-democratic system. In just the past week, large parts of Pakistan have
fallen under a mix of emergency rule and martial law.
The last time the Pakistan Army faced a
serious media challenge was in 2007. Then, the heavy-handed treatment of the
country’s deposed chief justice triggered a protest movement against military
ruler Pervez Musharraf. The Lawyers’ Movement, as it
was known, maintained a symbiotic relationship with Pakistan’s cable news
channels, which emerged during Musharraf’s era. The movement was also supported
by opposition parties.
News channels aired live coverage of the
movement’s protests deep into the night. The Musharraf government took some channels off the air,
but this triggered a backlash. While the military has since resorted to this tactic again — as well
as with violence — it has also cultivated
its own network of allied channels and media personalities.
Over the years, Pakistan’s Inter-Services
Press Relations (ISPR), the public relations wing of the military, has become
the country’s biggest media group, controlling journalists, making movies, and
operating on social media networks.
Some of this was deployed to counter what the army said was “fifth-generation warfare” from India, a
world-leading disseminator of fake news.
But the primary theater of battle in the Pakistan Army’s information wars was,
and remains, at home.
By 2018, much of the army’s online support
came from volunteers who were also supporters of Khan. When the army’s split
with Khan last year became clear after the no-confidence vote, these digital
janissaries followed the ousted prime minister. But because many of these
supporters come from army families, the resulting clash is very much one within
the broader military clan.
The army has since struggled to regain
dominance of the information domain from Khan. Early on in this crisis, it used
coercive tactics against prominent journalists. Some were arrested.
Others were forced to flee the country. One
was even killed in mysterious circumstances
in Kenya.
The army has also struggled to control Khan’s digital native millennial and Gen Z supporters. It’s one thing to manage a few dozen news channels. But today, Pakistan’s tens of millions of mobile phone users are content creators or news channels on their own.
Those forced off air have since moved online.
Disaffected retired army officers have also become
social media stars, gaining hundreds of thousands of subscribers on
YouTube. They’re among the army’s most potent critics, often claiming to have
inside information. The challenge is so serious that the army has, in a veiled
reference to these men, referred to them as “externally sponsored” forces
waging “propaganda warfare” against the
military.
The army has also struggled to control Khan’s
digital native millennial and Gen Z supporters. It’s one thing to manage a few
dozen news channels. But today, Pakistan’s tens of millions of mobile phone
users are content creators or news channels on their own. The army has
responded with analog tactics — like a press conference featuring
the country’s military spy chief — only to find the fearsome official mocked in
memes that go viral in an instant.
Now, the Pakistan Army is on a
counteroffensive against the popular Khan and
his digital army. Leveraging supporters’ violence after
Khan was arrested on May 9 on corruption charges, the army has turned to brute
force, including unlawful abductions.
When released, Khan’s defenders issue public apologies clearly made under
duress.
Intimidation may silence young Pakistanis, but it will only deepen the rift between the army and the broader society. A failing economy and growing authoritarianism will accelerate the flight of Pakistani professionals.
The government of Pakistan has tried to spin
its own narrative – posting ads on TikTok, for
instance, calling on Pakistanis to “condemn the acts perpetrating disgraceful
incidents.” It has also brought back old hands from the days of countering
fifth-generation warfare, some of whom appear to be drafting pro-government
counternarratives suspiciously crafted in immaculate English.
Intimidation may silence young Pakistanis,
but it will only deepen the rift between the army and the broader society. A
failing economy and growing authoritarianism will accelerate the flight of Pakistani
professionals. The Pakistani diaspora — once a reliable advocate of
cooperation between their native and adopted countries — will begin to resemble
Iranians in the US and Canada, who lobby against the Islamic Republic.
In the end, the Pakistan Army — as it has
done so often — will likely turn friends into foes and win the battle but lose
the war.
Arif Rafiq is president of Vizier Consulting, LLC,
a political risk advisory company focused on the Middle East and South Asia,
and a non-resident scholar at the Middle
East Institute. Twitter: @arifcrafiq
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