Who are the
winners and losers of the changing economic power dynamics in the Middle East?
One of the best indicators to answer the question is to look at the GDP
increase over the years, in current prices, as documented by the World Bank
data.
اضافة اعلان
Economic power is
the source of all other manifestations of power, be it political, military, or
cultural. Without economic power a country cannot sustain other types of soft
or hard power.
Economically poor
countries will not be able to project their military power or enhance the
well-being of their people, as N. Korea and Iran, for example.
A comparison of
the GDP growth of seven Middle Eastern countries that have various levels of
significance for the global security, between 1980 and 2021, reveals an
interesting finding.
Countries that are
not oil dependent have multiplied their GDP in a much bigger way than
oil-dependent countries. For example, Egypt’s GDP increased from $22 billion in
1980 to $404 billion in 2021 (almost 19 fold), Israel’s from $23 billion in
1980 to $481 billion in 2021 (18 fold), Turkey’s from $69 billion in 1980 to nearly
$815 billion in 2021 (12 fold), Jordan’s from $4 billion in 1980 to nearly $45
billion in 2021 (11 fold).
These countries
depend largely on productive economic activities rather than extractive
economic production. By contrast, oil-dependent countries exhibited a different
pattern. For example, UAE’s GDP grew from $43 billion in 1980 to nearly $400
billion in 2021 (10 fold), Saudi Arabia’s from $164 billion in 1980 to $833
billion in 2021 (fivefold), and Iran’s from $94 billion in 1980 to nearly $231
billion in 2021 (threefold).
Jordan, while working with regional and international partners, stands a great chance to continue its growth by utilizing its human capital and coming up with a vision, rather than waiting for natural resources to be discovered.
Sure, Iran’s
recent history of wars and sanctions made its growth lower than that of its
regional rivals with similar economic dependency. However, both UAE and Saudi
Arabia are positioned to diversify their economies and become less dependent on
a single source. Should this trajectory realize its potential, these two
countries may catch up in a much faster manner with Israel’s mode of economic
growth.
Despite conditions
similar to those of the region, Israel managed to propel its power resources
beyond what its size and age would suggest. Using technology, for example, it
managed to turn water scarcity into an asset through efficient water-management
systems, using advanced irrigation techniques and desalination.
While S. Arabia and
UAE are catching up with Israel, which has reached a world-class level, Israel
is working to become an energy exporter by utilizing maritime gas fields; at
the same time, the demarcation of its border with Lebanon will allow it to
harvest more energy resources.
Jordan, by
contrast, achieved its growth and maneuvered through the troubles in the region
without advanced technology (Israel’s advantage) and energy (S. Arabia’s and
UAE’s advantage).
Turkey’s exposure
to the EU since the 1970s helped to make it a tech and manufacturing hub.
With the I2U2
(grouping India, Israel, UAE, and the US) geo-economic alliance, these power
resources (tech and energy) are going to complement each other and lead to a
formidable industrial and military power that is rooted in strong grounds.
The power dynamics
of Egypt and S. Arabia will be changing as they utilize their human resources
more efficiently, as stated in their respective visions for 2030.
Jordan, while
working with regional and international partners, stands a great chance to
continue its growth by utilizing its human capital and coming up with a vision,
rather than waiting for natural resources to be discovered.
Fares Braizat is the chairman of NAMA Strategic Intelligence
Solutions, former minister of youth, moderator of the working group on Tourism
as part of Jordan Economic Vision 2033, and member of the Royal Committee to
Modernize the Political System. [email protected].
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