Once again Muqtada
Al-Sadr is proving to be the real game changer on the Iraqi political scene.
His announcement that he is withdrawing from politics amid the chaos in Iraq,
is once again giving him a position of power over the current situation.
اضافة اعلان
There is no doubt that Sadr’s request that his
supporters leave the Green Zone has played a significant role in calming the
tensions, but it also demonstrated the influence he has. In doing so, he has
also ensured that any clashes between militias and the Iraqi security services,
who tried to implement a nation-wide curfew, have been avoided so far.
The tension is expected to continue in Baghdad and
the southern parts of the country, which could lead to clashes between
demonstrators and security forces, or even clashes amongst rival armed
militias.
The announcement of early elections by President
Barham Salih could ease the rising social tensions, but whether this is enough
is yet to be seen, since the issues may now be more than elections as the
political rivalry and regional influence will not abate. This could mean an end
to the fragile political situation that Iraq had balanced; now there is a
conflict within the Shiite bloc itself, which could lead to more fragmentation,
competition, and clashes.
While he may be in a strong position, he is also facing a critical challenge as he aims to remain tied to the popular Shiite movement.
Sadr’s withdrawal from the political scene is
consistent with the tactics the Shiite leader has been using since 2013, but it
is even more effective as he separated himself from official policy and
positioned himself as a leader of the people, apart from the political class
that many Iraqi people see as corrupt, inefficient, and the source of all
problems.
While he may be in a strong position, he is also
facing a critical challenge as he aims to remain tied to the popular Shiite
movement.
The resignation of the religious leader Ayatollah
Al-Haeri is a move that Iran could be using to counter Sadr’s influence amongst
the Shiite community. Haeri appealed to his followers to religiously follow
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Any fragmentation of Sadr’s wide network of
organized supporters will weaken him politically, particularly if enough follow
Haeri’s request.
The coming weeks are critical for Sadr; he needs to
consolidate his position and leverage his withdrawal from politics and the
chaos it has created by preparing for a new phase that could reduce the
influence of the traditional faces that dominated the political scene in Iraq
for so long.
Amer Al-Sabaileh is a Jordanian university professor and
geopolitical expert. He is a leading columnist in national, regional, and
international media, offers consultancies to think tanks and speaks at
international conferences on Middle East politics and developments.
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