Misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows, and the misery of Ukraine war
has dragged some of Russia’s unusual bedfellows out of the shadows.
اضافة اعلان
None more so
than Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman who only recently admitted what
had long been an open secret — that he had founded the shadowy Wagner Group of
mercenaries that have appeared in conflicts around the world.
In just the past
week, Prigozhin and the Wagner Group have stepped out, into a more public role.
First, Wagner opened an ostentatious military technology center in St.
Petersburg, a towering building of glass and steel that is meant to incubate
“patriotic” startups.
Most
explosively, on the eve of the US midterm elections, Prigozhin admitted
interfering in US elections, for which he was indicted by a US court in 2018.
For Prigozhin,
these moves are about positioning himself within the power elite of Moscow,
even though he holds no official position, and the Wagner Group as being at the
forefront of a more aggressive Russia. However long Prigozhin may have spent in
the murky world of international mercenaries, he and his fighters are stepping
out of the shadows into a much more dangerous world.
The Wagner Group
has become a vital part of Russia’s unofficial foreign policy. Wagner’s
mercenaries have operated in Syria and Libya, as well as other African
countries like Mali and the Central African Republic, where they have been
accused of committing human rights abuses.
For the Kremlin,
the attraction of these groups is their lack of accountability. Wagner operates
outside of the Russian state, allowing the Kremlin to deny knowledge of any
operations. Despite clear evidence of cooperation and coordination between
parts of the Russian state and Wagner, in particular the military and
intelligence arms, the group officially has nothing to do with Moscow.
There is also a secondary, more gruesome, benefit
for the Kremlin: Wagner mercenaries who die abroad do not cause much public
outcry. The Kremlin need never explain to the public why soldiers are dying in
African countries, because all these soldiers are private mercenaries. (That is
why a video emerged in the autumn of Prigozhin attempting to recruit prisoners
for a tour of duty in Ukraine.)
If anonymity
allows him and his mercenaries such latitude, why then has Prigozhin stepped
out of the shadows?
The short answer
is that the war has changed a lot, inside and outside Russia.
What was
previously a simmering rivalry between Russia and the West has exploded into
virtually open conflict. The Kremlin clearly no longer feels the need to
disguise some of the actions it was taking, like the use of mercenaries or
election interference. Indeed, there is much to be gained by demonstrating that
Russia has multiple ways of attacking its adversaries.
Politics in Russia is a dangerous world, and Putin may well find a useful high profile cheerleader today could equally become a useful high profile scapegoat tomorrow.
At the same
time, as the war has dragged on, dissent has increased around the Kremlin.
Here, Prigozhin serves as a vocal cheerleader for Putin’s decision, potentially
muzzling critics simply due to his combative style. For Prigozhin himself, a
higher public profile could be rewarded with a political post — perhaps even
the head of the defense ministry. And, freed from operating in the shadows,
Wagner could pick up lucrative state contracts.
Still, coming
out of the shadows carries risks — for the Wagner Group, for Prigozhin himself
and even for Vladimir Putin.
For Putin,
Wagner has always been a group he could easily disavow. Criticism of the
behavior of its mercenaries in African countries can be brushed off by claiming
Prigozhin is merely a businessman with multiple interests who does not work for
the Russian government. Allegations of interference in US elections can be
similarly dismissed for lack of proof.
But with
Prigozhin taking a more active role, such plausible deniability fades. If Prigozhin
has been indicted by US authorities, and he is now publicly admitting his
involvement in election interference, how can Putin avoid even asking him about
it? If Wagner’s new research facilities gain contracts from the Russian army or
defense ministry, surely those ministries would at least ask about the
allegations of abuse in African nations? The Russian state is free to disregard
the answers or pretend to be satisfied with any denials, but the powerful
shield of plausible deniability drops.
Even for Putin
there are risks. If he survives the Ukraine debacle, he will face a much more
aggressive West, and the admission of election interference will not be
forgotten in the US. Prigozhin’s admission has put the Internet Research
Agency, the online troll factory he runs, on the table for future negotiations.
Yet, the most
exposed person is Prigozhin himself. Unlike the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov,
who has also publicly criticized the Russian army’s performance in the war,
Prigozhin does not have a republic to run, and is therefore more expendable to
the Kremlin.
Some media have
spoken of a clash between Prigozhin and Putin, but much of this is wishful
thinking. Prigozhin is absolutely beholden to Putin — the use of mercenaries is
prohibited under Russian law, so Prigozhin could be sentenced to years in jail
the moment he falls out with or challenges the president.
Therein lies the
greatest danger. Yes, the war has increased his popularity and his visibility.
But wars have a way of turning in unexpected ways. Prigozhin has made powerful
enemies by coming out of the shadows and criticizing the Russian army. Politics
in Russia is a dangerous world, and Putin may well find a useful high profile
cheerleader today could equally become a useful high profile scapegoat
tomorrow. Even an army of mercenaries will not protect him then.
Faisal Al Yafai is currently writing a book on the Middle East and is a frequent
commentator on international TV news networks. He worked for news outlets such
as The Guardian and the BBC, and reported on the Middle East, Eastern Europe,
Asia and Africa. Twitter: @FaisalAlYafai. Copyright: Syndication Bureau.
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