For the US and its Arab
allies, the holy month of Ramadan, which begins in less than a month, is a
virtual cut-off date for Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu to conclude
the five-month-old
war on Gaza.
اضافة اعلان
This has not been stated
publicly by the Biden administration, but such a message was delivered to
Israel behind closed doors. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and
the foreign ministers of several Arab countries have been discussing plans for
the day after in Gaza, which includes the launch of a universal political
process not only to rehabilitate the devastated strip but to revive the
two-state solution and clear the way for the creation of a Palestinian state in
return for full normalization between Arab states and Israel.
There is only one major
obstacle facing this approach: Netanyahu and his far-right coalition. It now
appears that Netanyahu and Co. live in a parallel universe, wholly detached
from what the rest of the world is busy discussing and hoping to deliver after
more than 100,000 Palestinians have been killed, injured, or
missing in Gaza.
The US and Netanyahu have
rarely been on the same page since the October 7 Hamas attack and Israel’s
declaration of
war on Gaza. While the Biden administration stood firmly behind
Israel as it waged the most destructive war on a civilian population in modern
times, Netanyahu had always made it clear that his agenda for Gaza had nothing
to do with what the Biden administration, the Arab world, or Israel’s Western
allies had in mind for the end game. After more than five months of a brutal
and disproportionate military response, Netanyahu’s goals have become more
evident: He is not only after Hamas but wants to
destroy Gaza, home to 2.2
million Palestinians, 70 percent of whom are refugees, and turn it into a
wasteland.
While Blinken spoke, in
Munich, of opportunities to integrate Israel into the region through
normalization deals while paving the way for the creation of a Palestinian
state, Netanyahu and partners voted to reject any unilateral recognition of a
Palestinian state. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened Monday to
cancel the Oslo agreements and dissolve the Palestinian Authority (PA) if such
a unilateral recognition is made.
The US and Netanyahu have rarely been on the same page since the October 7 Hamas attack and Israel’s declaration of war on Gaza. While the Biden administration stood firmly behind Israel as it waged the most destructive war on a civilian population in modern times, Netanyahu had always made it clear that his agenda for Gaza had nothing to do with what the Biden administration, the Arab world, or Israel’s Western allies had in mind for the end game. After more than five months of a brutal and disproportionate military response, Netanyahu’s goals have become more evident: He is not only after Hamas but wants to destroy Gaza, home to 2.2 million Palestinians, 70 percent of whom are refugees, and turn it into a wasteland.
In recent weeks, the US, UK,
and France joined other Western countries in openly stating that recognizing
the state of Palestine was on the table. President Emmanuel Macron said on
Friday that recognition of a Palestinian state is “not a taboo” for Paris. In
response to such statements, Netanyahu’s office said that “now is not the time
to be speaking about gifts to the Palestinian people.”
And when President Joe Biden
and his team said openly that they do not support a ground offensive on Rafah,
the last safe enclave where more than 1.8 million Palestinians have sought
refuge, Netanyahu was defiant, claiming that Israel will not be denied a
conclusive victory.
To add insult to injury,
Netanyahu has rejected any proposal to reach a lengthy truce with Hamas in
exchange for a hostage release. Such a deal had involved the Americans, Egypt,
and Qatar, including the Israeli Mossad. He risked breaking up with Benny Gantz
and Gadi Eizenkot, two key members of his war Cabinet, for deciding on his own
the fate of any deal concerning the return of Israeli captives held by Hamas.
And when the Biden White
House begged Israel to switch to low-intensity
operations in Gaza to decrease civilian casualties, especially after the International Court of Justice (ICJ)
preliminary ruling last month on South Africa’s case, which found plausible
grounds for genocide, Netanyahu ignored all pleas and allowed his army to
pummel through Khan Yunis, attacking hospitals, residential buildings, medics,
mosques, and universities with the same indiscriminate bombing.
So we come to Ramadan and
what that could mean for Gaza, Rafah, and the boiling West Bank. Ignoring US
requests to rein in West Bank settlers and reduce civilian deaths, Israel has
continued to look the other way as Jewish settlers continued their terror
campaign throughout the West Bank. At the same time, the Israeli army
maintained its daily incursions into towns and refugee camps with deadly
results.
Now, Minister of National
Security Itamar Ben Gvir wants to raise the ante by barring almost all
Palestinians in the West Bank from entering occupied East Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa
Mosque during the holy month. Such a move would inflame the West Bank and, by
extension, the region. While the
butchery continues in Gaza well into Ramadan,
with Rafah becoming the center of military operations and with millions of
Palestinians barred from praying at Al-Aqsa, a tinderbox will indeed explode.
Perhaps that is what
Netanyahu and his far-right partners want: to trigger an Intifada and cast it
as a religious war. Ben-Gvir’s actions and provocations will give fodder to
Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, the Houthis, and many non-state actors in the region to
claim that Israel is indeed waging a religious war.
So we come to Ramadan and what that could mean for Gaza, Rafah, and the boiling West Bank. Ignoring US requests to rein in West Bank settlers and reduce civilian deaths, Israel has continued to look the other way as Jewish settlers continued their terror campaign throughout the West Bank. At the same time, the Israeli army maintained its daily incursions into towns and refugee camps with deadly results.
Netanyahu’s objectives are
aligned with those of a fire-brand ultra-religious and ultra-nationalist Jews
who aim to hijack the narrative and derail all efforts to generate a political
process following the
Gaza debacle. And yes, he wants to prolong the war, which
is hurting Israel as well, for his survival.
But despite such a harrowing
scenario of what could take place in the coming few weeks, the US appears to be
completely detached from reality. Yes, the US president is frustrated with
Netanyahu, but his administration is incapable, or unwilling, of applying
pressure on him for domestic reasons. Biden is unlikely to stop the runaway
Netanyahu train. And no Israeli politician is mustering the courage to stand up
to him during war.
Ramadan in the occupied
territories has always been a tense period, even in relatively quieter times.
But now, it is a ticking bomb that could explode at any time as a result of the
Rafah situation and extreme measures taken against Palestinians in the West
Bank.
All attempts to lure or
pressure Netanyahu will fail unless the US takes decisive action against the
current Israeli government. Else, the extremists will prevail and will create
precedents in East Jerusalem and at Al-Aqsa and will push hard with their scheme
to terrorize West Bankers and strangle them economically to push for a slow
transfer, or what Ben-Gvir calls “voluntary
migration.” In Gaza, the situation
is even worse. A ground offensive in Rafah will result in bloodshed and will
force hapless Palestinians to breach the borders with Egypt seeking safety.
All the Israeli talk about
facilitating the movement of millions of Palestinians to the
north of Gaza is a
farce. Netanyahu’s goal of repeating the Nakba is going as planned. This will
be his lethal legacy, and so far, nothing is stopping him.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
Disclaimer:
Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Jordan News' point of view.
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