The crisis in Ukraine is beginning to leave its mark on the Middle East,
and the region is seeing dynamics movements. Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad made
his first visit to an Arab state; he met the rulers of Abu Dhabi and Dubai this
week, breaking a taboo that might pave the way for other visits. Immediately
after this visit, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed met with Israeli
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi in
Sharm El-Sheikh.
اضافة اعلان
According to official statements, the discussions covered global
developments and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on energy, market
stability, and food security. However, given the moves the UAE is making, it
could be part of an Emirati effort to play the role of peace mediator between
Syria and Israel, and to resume the peace talks interrupted in 1997.
The US does not seem to support these efforts; the US State
Department said it was "profoundly disappointed and troubled" by
Assad's official visit to the UAE. It is not, however, the first policy divergence
between the UAE and President Joe Biden’s administration; recently, the Gulf refused
to increase oil production in response to the situation in Russia and the
Ukraine.
It is important for the US to consider why its old allies are
taking a position that differs from its own. During the Trump administration, the
UAE enjoyed a privileged position and, in many ways, represented the center of
regional political weight. But since Biden took office, there have been radical
changes in approach, as attention has switched mainly to Qatar, which is
supposed to play a significant role in fulfilling global gas supply needs.
Another critical issue they differ on is the Iran nuclear deal; the
UAE and Saudi Arabia wanted to be involved to ensure it was not limited to the
nuclear issue, but also covered Iran’s aggressive policies in the region as
well as its ballistic missile capacities. In this context, it makes sense that the
UAE should take more independent policy positions.
In a post-ideology time distinctly lacking a common doctrine, building alliances will be based on mutual benefits, interests and economic gains.
Other US partners may begin to question their position as well, as
American focus and approach change wildly depending on the administration of
the day.
Turkey is also starting to play a more important strategic role. As
a NATO member, Turkey’s recent policies have aligned with those of the US and
NATO. Moreover, the reconciliatory approach Turkey has taken toward Israel and Greece
suggests a more realistic and pragmatic Turkish vision.
The role that Turkey can play is fundamental for the US at this
stage, but it is yet to be seen if the US is successful in building a longer-term
alliance with Turkey, or bringing back any unsatisfied allies.
Recent shifts in global political dynamics will have an impact on
all countries. In a post-ideology time distinctly lacking a common doctrine,
building alliances will be based on mutual benefits, interests and economic
gains. It will be hard to maintain a strong alliance over time, as economic
pragmatism and self-interest will take precedence over stable relationships.
The writer is a Jordanian university professor and geopolitical expert. He is a leading columnist in national, regional, and international media, offers consultancies to think tanks and speaks at international conferences on Middle East politics and developments.
Read more Opinion and Analysis
Jordan News
.jpg)
.jpg)
