The strategic
importance of the Red Sea for regional and international actors is being
reshaped by a renewed set of influencing factors. These include, inter alia,
changed global posture of super and great powers in the region, emerging roles
of regional powers (through delegation of roles by the super and great powers),
expansion in the number and size of fixed and mobile military bases on and off
the shores of the Red Sea, and a set of maritime threats to oil and trade
routes, such as piracy and illegal trafficking.
اضافة اعلان
There is vested interest for the movers and shakers
who have military or commercial presence in the Red Sea, including land on its
shores, such as Egypt (over 20 ports) Saudi Arabia (six ports and expanding),
Sudan (six ports), Yemen (two ports), Eritrea (two ports), Djibouti (six ports
in the Gulf of Aden), Jordan, Israel, and those who have presence on the Red
Sea and the Gulf of Aden, such as the US, China, France, Italy, Japan, Russia,
Turkey, and the UAE.
Probably the most interesting country to watch is
Saudi Arabia, which has a 1,760k.m of coastline on the Red Sea, home to new
investments amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, such as the Red Sea
Project, King Salman Bridge to Egypt, Renewal of Jeddah, Neom, and the Line.
Moreover, the halls of power in Riyadh and Jeddah seem to be giving more
importance to the Red Sea sphere of influence (politically and economically)
than the Gulf on which Saudi Arabia has a 560-kilometer shore.
While Jordan is not an economic power in the region, it punches above its weight in political and security arenas through the Aqaba process, intelligence capabilities, and the ability to deploy special forces in a timely fashion.
The diversification of the Saudi economy (expected
to reach $1.8 trillion in 2030) is being increasingly driven west of the
Kingdom. This direction is amplifying the strategic value of the Red Sea,
proving that the security of this body of water is gaining more prominence in
the Saudi policy thinking, making, and execution.
Saudi Arabia had proposed a Red Sea summit, which
was supposed to be held in September 2022, but it was postponed for undisclosed
reasons just a few hours before it was scheduled to take place, which suggests
that there is a lot of “political elbowing” around the Red Sea that caused the
delay of summit.
The list of strategic assets on the Red Sea is
rather long. Its shores are home to rare earth minerals, which have become a
globally contested resource. Three hundred million people live around the Red
Sea (including Ethiopia, which is land-locked and separated from the Red Sea by
a narrow land strip belonging to Eritrea).
The Egyptian-Ethiopian struggle over water resources
dictated political realignments to balance the rights and the needs of the
countries along the Nile. This dynamic increased immensely the strategic value
of Eritrea; the Egyptian-Ethiopian rivalry increased Eritrea’s bargaining power
with the two countries and their regional and international allies.
Part of this rivalry manifests itself in the FDI
from the Gulf countries in ports and military bases in Eritrea and Djibouti,
like the UAE, for example. Most countries with presence in the area are
security and military allies of the US, with the exception of Russia and China.
The “wild presence” of Iran in the waterways around the region is perceived by
many as state-sponsored piracy in regional and international waters. Its
presence invited Israel’s and allies’ counter presence, and a few encounters
took place in the Red Sea in April last year.
While Jordan is not an economic power in the region,
it punches above its weight in political and security arenas through the Aqaba
process, intelligence capabilities, and the ability to deploy special forces in
a timely fashion. In collaboration with its allies, Jordan is contributing to
the security of the waterways for oil and trade from Asia to Europe through the
straits of Bab Al Mandeb, where the Houthis control hundreds of kilometers of
Red Sea coastlines.
Fares Braizat is chairman of NAMA Strategic Intelligence Solutions, former Minister of
Youth, moderator of the working group on tourism as part of Jordan Economic
Vision 2033, and member of the Royal Committee to Modernize the Political
System. [email protected]
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