The world is watching the aggressive return to a Cold War atmosphere as Russia
invades Ukraine. The US and other western countries have been warning about
Russia’s plans for weeks, yet there has been very little preparation to counter
Russia’s moves.
اضافة اعلان
The western bloc
is acting more like a united alliance. In recent years, Russia relied on the
fact that there are big gaps in the priorities of western countries and on the
lack of US and some European countries’ interest to keep up with NATO. Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine was the trigger needed to focus everyone’s attention and
realign priorities.
Russian President
Vladimir Putin has used this lack of unity and interest extremely well,
leveraging incentives and mutual interests to weaken any joint anti-Russian
position. While the apparent unity may surprise Putin a little bit, Germany is
holding back, taking a hardline stance, particularly because of its reliance on
the North Stream II gas pipeline for energy security. Italy is also, although
less so, reliant on Russian gas, and together with Germany has been opposing
using the global payments platform SWIFT as part of the sanctions against
Russia.
While sanctions
have been used against Russia for many years, the type and scope being used and
considered now are quite different. Strong economic sanctions that isolate the
Russian economy will have a negative impact on the Russian people, who are
already faced with a struggling economy and show social frustration related to
the COVID pandemic.
The new sanctions
will play a significant role in repositioning Russia and Putin diplomatically,
politically and economically. The fact that Europe might be ready to rid itself
of dependency on Russian gas creates new challenges, but Putin’s actions are
forcing the Europeans to face this new reality and plan a Europe without
Russian gas. This may not be easy, but it is not impossible.
Russia may not
have expected such a strong reaction. It is more likely that Putin’s tactical
approach was based on escalation followed quickly by containment of the
situation. This has been Putin’s approach in recent years: achieve his goals
and then show readiness to come to the negotiation table.
While sanctions have been used against Russia for many years, the type and scope being used and considered now are quite different.
If the western
bloc continues to be firm, decisive and display a united strategy, there will
be a radical change in this confrontation with Russia.
The deep economic
crisis, draining of resources, sanctions and isolation of the Russian economy
will have a socioeconomic impact in a country where political opposition is
underground, but always prepared to come out. This pressure will have an even
more marked impact in Russia because the situation is of Putin’s making in the
first place.
Technically, this
is not a battle between the west and Russia, it is much more like a Cold War
confrontation in a new era. Putin’s actions are of little surprise, but he is
unlikely to have forecast the firm and united response, particularly as similar
response was not triggered when Russia meddled in Syria, Belarus, Afghanistan,
Kazakhstan, and probably also Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Adding this
surprise response to the economic crisis Russia suffers gives Putin a heavy
workload now. The venture in Ukraine is not a particularly easy mission and
could end up a long and complicated foray.
Russia has, at
best, shown indifference to international law or global security norms, but
what is the real gain from its policies? It already held the warm water port of
Sebastopol after the 2013 venture into Crimea. What has resulted is that the US
is now in a strong position to relaunch its western narrative, and Putin has
handed it a new enemy and a new Cold War.
The writer is a Jordanian university professor and
geopolitical expert. He is a leading columnist in national, regional, and international
media, offers consultancies to think tanks and speaks at international
conferences on Middle East politics and developments.
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