Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is having a destabilizing
effect on the Middle East. Recently, Moscow walked back threats to torpedo the
Iran nuclear deal – officially, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
– but continues to impede progress in retaliation for sanctions related to its
military activities. This, in turn, is pushing Iran to respond in kind.
اضافة اعلان
On March 10, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
claimed responsibility for ballistic missile attacks on American diplomatic
facilities in Erbil, in northern Iraq, under the pretext that the targets were
part of an Israeli “strategic center”. While the attacks were widely viewed as
a warning to the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) in Iraq, not to support a
Muqtada Al Sadr-led government in Baghdad that omits Iran’s Shiite allies,
Tehran was also sending a message that it would not wait forever for nuclear
negotiations to yield results.
Adding to the urgency, Iran is closer than ever to a nuclear
breakout capability. This raises pressure on Israel to intervene militarily to
prevent Iran from reaching a point of no return.
On March 15, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he
had “received written guarantees” from the US that its trade with Iran would
not come under Ukraine-related sanctions. If so, this may allow JCPOA talks to
proceed. However, the longer it takes for world powers to conclude the deal
with Iran, the more likely that tensions will continue to rise between Iran and
its regional rivals.
Moreover, if the nuclear deal withers on the vine, as US
officials now fear, the regional ripple effects would be deadly. For instance,
Tehran’s proxies would likely step up attacks against Saudi Arabia, the United
Arab Emirates, and Bahrain if the IRGC is not removed from the US State
Department’s Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list. This has been one of
Tehran’s key demands in JCPOA discussions. Without this, Tehran will target
investor sentiment toward the UAE and Saudi Arabia and hamper both countries’
ability to export oil.
Alongside the ballistic missile attacks on Erbil, Iran has
also suspended ongoing talks with Saudi Arabia, conducted with Iraqi
facilitation. Instead, Iran is negotiating with brutality. In January,
Iran-backed Houthis attacked strategic sites in the UAE with drones and
missiles. Then on March 19, the Houthis attacked an oil facility, desalination
plant, and a power station in southern Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the
Houthis also rejected GCC-brokered talks on the Yemen issue, which were to be
held in Riyadh this week. On Friday the Houthis carried out a wave of drone and
missile attacks on Saudi oil facilities, including an Aramco storage site in
Jeddah. Plumes of smoke rose over the city where Formula 1 drivers were
practicing for the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.
There are numerous other ways that Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine threatens to destabilize the region. For starters, it could imperil
Israel’s fragile coalition government. Despite religious and cultural ties to
Ukraine, Israel has long maintained good relations with Russia and has so far
not condemned the Russian attack. Instead, it has sought to strike a balance
between Washington and Moscow. With the Kremlin’s tacit approval, Israel
conducts aerial bombardments of Iranian militias in Syria. The ballistic
attacks on Erbil by the IRGC came a few days after Israel killed two IRGC
members in Syria.
Moreover, if the nuclear deal withers on the vine, as US officials now fear, the regional ripple effects would be deadly.
But Israel’s non-committal approach to the Ukraine crisis is
being tested. Israel’s foreign minister, Yair Lapid, who also has the title of
Alternate Prime Minister of Israel, has diverged remarkably from the official
position on the war. In mid-March, Lapid said there was “no justification” for
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, whereas Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett
has urged ministers to stay silent on the topic. Were the coalition government
to collapse, it could set the stage for the re-emergence of Benjamin Netanyahu
as prime minister, who would pursue a decidedly more hawkish policy toward
Iran.
The Russian invasion could also hand Daesh the perfect
opportunity to regroup and cause havoc in the region.
Because Moscow has decided to extract its pound of flesh
from the Assad regime by planning to airlift thousands of Syrians to the
battlefield in Ukraine, the Syrian military has taken a hit at home. Some
reports say as many as 40,000 Syrians have signed up to fight in Ukraine, a
significant portion of the Assad regime’s forces. This reportedly includes the
Moscow-trained elite 4th Division controlled by Maher Al-Assad, President
Bashar Al-Assad’s brother. While this will not necessarily imperil the regime’s
hold on Damascus, it could create a power vacuum in other areas.
Finally, let us not forget that countries like Egypt,
Morocco, and Tunisia are likely to see rising discontent before Ramadan, as
their food import bills increase due to Russia’s war. Just weeks before the
start of the holy month, consumers across the Middle East and North Africa
rushed to stock up on wheat due to a double whammy of import shortages and
rising transport costs. The regimes in all these countries could face the
prospect of “bread riots” breaking out, leading to a repeat of Arab Spring-like
protests across the region.
None of this is inevitable. But while the world is focused
on the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Europe, it is equally
important to assess and plan for its impact on the MENA region as well.
The writer is a political analyst who focuses on the Middle
East and South Asia. He also consults on socio-economic development for
government and private-sector entities.
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