Russia is stepping up its efforts to
normalize ties between Syria and Turkey in a bid to bolster its alliance with Damascus, which has
proved exceptionally beneficial to both sides since President Vladimir Putin
ordered a military incursion in 2015 that ended up saving President Bashar
Al-Assad's regime. The recent attempts by Moscow to set up a meeting between
Assad and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have to be considered against
the backdrop of Russia's elusive victory in Ukraine and the heightening
tensions between Moscow and the West.
اضافة اعلان
In contrast to its miscalculated adventure in Ukraine,
Russia's intervention in Syria has been a resounding success. It now has
permanent naval and air bases in Syria, which have allowed it to extend its
military and political influence across the Mediterranean into Libya and in the
Red Sea as far as Sudan.
President Assad has become increasingly dependent on Russia
for survival. So much so that during a meeting with Putin in Moscow last month,
he said he would welcome any Russian proposals to set up new military bases and
boost troop numbers in his country. Syria has supported Russia's war in
Ukraine, and Assad announced that Damascus recognizes the territories annexed
by Russia in Ukraine. But the protracted military operation in Ukraine has had
its toll on Russia's military resources forcing it to relocate troops and
munitions from Syria to the Russian-Ukrainian frontlines. Russia must secure
its gains in Syria and bolster a shaky alliance with Turkey and Iran, which
have a presence in Syria under conflicting agendas.
In contrast to its miscalculated adventure in Ukraine, Russia's intervention in Syria has been a resounding success.
For Erdogan, realizing that Assad's regime has survived and
that new geopolitical realities would make it harder for him to support
anti-Assad rebel groups in Idlib while hosting millions of Syrian refugees in
southern Turkish provinces forced him to adopt a more pragmatic approach
towards Damascus
. Hosting Syrian refugees and Turkey's support for Syrian
rebels have become hot issues in an election year. Erdogan's popularity has
suffered for his government's handling of the earthquake disaster, while the
opposition has vowed to pull Turkish troops from northern Syria if it wins the
May elections.
Erdogan's plans to deploy troops in northeastern Syria to
quash Syrian Kurdish groups have been dashed by the US, which has over 2,000
soldiers in the same region working with the Syrian Democratic Forces to
confront Daesh. Still, Ankara has set up dozens of bases in northern Syria,
which has prevented the Syrian army from regaining territory.
Following a meeting between the defense ministers of both
Turkey and Syria in Moscow last December, Erdogan announced that he was ready
to sit down with Assad to foster peace and stability in Syria. But so far,
Damascus has been unwilling to reciprocate. Last month Assad said he would only
meet Erdogan when Turkey was ready to completely withdraw its military from
northern Syria and restore the situation before the Syrian war.
President Assad has become increasingly dependent on Russia for survival.
This week's four-way meeting involving the deputy foreign
ministers of Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Russia in Moscow is another attempt by
the Kremlin to iron out differences between Damascus and Ankara.
This time the Russians invited the Iranians to be present as well. Iran has thousands of
militia fighters and tens of military advisors in Syria.
In recent weeks, Israel intensified its airstrikes on
suspected
Iranian military positions and convoys in Syria, while
Tehran is believed to have targeted US positions in eastern Syria in retaliation. A
shadow war is getting out of control between Israel and Iran in Syria, and so
far, the Russians have done little to contain it.
Ideally,
the Russians hope to bring Assad and Erdogan together, sending a message that they call the shots in Syria. Still, Moscow's
attempt to find a political settlement to the 12-year Syrian war has not been
successful. Rapprochement between Damascus and Ankara would deliver a blow to
the Syrian opposition and would most likely end Turkish military support for
rebel groups in Idlib.
A shadow war is getting out of control between Israel and Iran in Syria, and so far, the Russians have done little to contain it.
That leaves the US presence in the east and the fate of the
Syrian Kurds under America's protection. While the US says it is opposed to
Arab gestures towards Assad, which could culminate in restoring Syria's place
in the
Arab League ahead of the Arab summit in Riyadh in May, it is unlikely
that it would be able to derail the current process aimed at rehabilitating the
Syrian regime.
It would be an understatement to say that the Syrian crisis
is complicated. With so many state and non-state actors involved in Syria,
finding a satisfactory solution that would preserve the country's territorial
integrity while ending foreign presence and addressing issues includintg
repatriation of refugees and displaced persons, investigations of war crimes,
and the fate of thousands who remain missing is highly unlikely at this stage.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator
based in Amman.
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