Following the Arab Spring, governments in the region became keen on
producing long-term national development plans. Such top-down visions,
regardless of the extent of citizen input, have been designed by experts to
address key concerns, achieve economic growth, and enhance productivity.
اضافة اعلان
With the exception of some well-designed plans, most
have three main shortcomings: the small extent to which they take into
consideration executive and legislative decisions and discussions; lack of
contingency plans and risk mitigation elements; they were designed and launched
in a reactionary fashion, mostly to appease public dissent.
These three limitations are present in Jordan’s
Economic Modernization Vision 2033. Adding to these, less than two days after
the vision was launched, the government announced another increase in fuel
prices. The government then indicated its intention to introduce a toll system
on some busy roads. The Central Bank of Jordan also raised the interest rate on
monetary policy instruments by 50 basis points. All this has not only caused
confusion among citizens and potential investors, it also diminished any prospect
for a much-needed optimism in Jordan.
Furthermore, the vision lacks any comprehensive
contingency plan, much needed in view of the post-pandemic realities, the
looming global economic and financial crises, and the ongoing Russian war in
Ukraine.
The vision presented some unrealistic targets, like
increasing outputs in most sectors by a sustainable average of more than 4
percentage points for the next decade, which is highly unattainable even in the
most advanced economies.
It is clear that this vision was launched, possibly
prematurely, to appease public dissent that has been surfacing for months.
A deeper look at the situation suggests a troubling
regional trend. For the past 30 years, government policies in response to
citizens’ economic concerns have been centered on political reforms, mostly in
the form of elections. This reactive approach has rendered elections
undesirable, with turnout rates decreasing year after year.
Adopting the same approach in the context of
strategic planning is intrinsically troublesome. In doing so, decision makers
risk diminishing public confidence in experts. The most recent data by the
World Values Survey reveals an average rating of 2.5 out of 4 across the
countries surveyed in the Arab world when individuals were asked whether having
experts, not the government, make decisions according to what they think is
best for the country.
This rating falls exactly between “fairly good” and
“fairly bad”. Meaning, utilizing experts to come up with strategic planning in
a blundering and rushed fashion risks lowering their public approval ratings.
Strategic planning that sets unattainable targets, that is tone deaf to the economy’s limited production capacities, merely to paint an optimistic image for citizens is destined to fail.
Considering the dwindling public confidence in
governments, parliaments, political parties, and democratic and authoritarian
rule alike, citizens may be made to believe that there are no legitimate
traditional institutions or groups, including experts, capable of addressing
their issues and meeting their demands.
In such case, citizens can also find themselves an
easy target of the devious reach of destabilizing groups and their agendas, groups
that generally compete with legitimate institutions for public confidence. Such
groups could find a propitious environment to spread their rhetoric and cause
domestic instability, which is unequivocally not needed.
Strategic planning across the Arab world is becoming
an invisible and indivisible component of governments’ go-to sedatives, merely
to buy time and shift public discussion away from their inability to address
citizen concerns.
The all-time low unemployment rates across many
countries in the region do necessitate immediate responses. With job-creation
rates stagnant for years, governments must think creatively and strategically.
While strategic planning is indeed a textbook response, ignoring both current
decisions and preceding strategies and plans when devising a plan, and oblique
monitoring and accountability measures, limit its efficacy.
Jordan launched its National Employment Strategy
2011–2020 in 2011; Jordan 2025 A National Vision and Strategy in 2014; the
National Strategy for Human Resources Development in 2016; and Jordan National
Social Protection Strategy 2019–2025. None of these achieved the targets, at
least not at the desired level.
Rather than learning from their shortcomings or
their extrapolated lessons, this new vision opted to offer a fresh start at a
time when citizens are not willing to accept a clean slate and the national
economic conditions are not conduciveto that either.
Strategic planning that sets unattainable targets,
that is tone deaf to the economy’s limited production capacities, merely to
paint an optimistic image for citizens is destined to fail. It may lead to the
abrupt launch, in a few years’ time, of a new vision with unrealistic figures,
catchy titles, and flashy colors in hopes that the depressed citizens might
turn a blind eye.
Mohammed Abu Dalhoum is the president of MENAACTION and senior
research analyst at NAMA Strategic Intelligence Solutions.
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