With the world’s attention focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine, Türkiye is
preparing to launch its own “special military operation” in northern Syria.
Ankara appears to be taking advantage of the conflict in Eastern Europe to
achieve strategic goals in the Middle East.
اضافة اعلان
It is not a
secret that Türkiye aims to create a 30km deep buffer zone across its border
with Syria. But to do that, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would have to get
the green light from Türkiye’s NATO ally the US, as well as at least a tacit
approval from its frenemy Russia.
Turkish troops
plan to seize the towns of Tel Rifaat, Kobani, Ain Issa, and Manbij in northern
Syria. Presently, the region is under the control of the Kurdish-dominated
People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Türkiye considers to be a terrorist
organization and an extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
The problem for Erdogan is that Washington sees the YPG as an allied force
against Daesh militants. Could the US be about to “betray” the Kurds again?
Recent comments
from State Department spokesman Ned Price indicate that the US and Türkiye are yet to reach a final deal on northern Syria. “We recognize Turkey’s
legitimate security concerns on its border,” Price said. “But again, we are concerned
that any new offensive would further undermine regional stability.”
Given that
Washington needs Erdogan not to sabotage NATO membership requests from Finland
and Sweden, it is entirely possible the US will soon indirectly approve the
Turkish military incursion in northern Syria.
Without external
support, Kurdish forces are unlikely to be able to withstand the combined power
of the Turkish Armed Forces and its proxies from the remaining Syrian rebel
stronghold in Idlib. If the US does not prevent Türkiye from launching a
military operation in the region, the Kurds will almost certainly lose control
over a significant portion of strategically important territory.
..., we are concerned that any new offensive would further undermine regional stability
Still, it is
questionable if the Turkish military will seize Manbij — a town that sits on a
major intersection of roads on Syria’s west-east highway known as the M4. Given
that it is the Russian army that patrols along this route, Türkiye is unlikely
to attack Manbij unless it first attempts to make a deal with the Kremlin.
From the Russian
perspective, some sort of a “land swap” — Manbij for Jabal Al-Zawiya in Idlib —
would be the best option. But given Russia’s weak position in the international
arena, and its preoccupation with the ongoing military fiasco in Ukraine, it is
unlikely that Türkiye would agree to make such an arrangement. Instead, in
order not to seize Manbij, Ankara could demand certain economic concessions
from Moscow, such as a discount on Russian energy and grain.
Russia’s
isolation does not allow the Kremlin to set any conditions on Türkiye, which
means that a potential deal with Erdogan would come at a very high price for
Moscow.
Reports suggest
that Russia has recently redeployed some of its troops from Syria to Ukraine.
More importantly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s claim that “Russian
forces in Syria have almost no military missions left” clearly indicates that,
at least for the time being, what is happening in Syria is not Moscow’s top
priority. For the Kremlin, at this point, it is very important to avoid a new
escalation in the region, and to preserve relatively good relations with
Türkiye.
It is not
improbable, therefore, for Russia to simply turn a blind eye to a new Turkish
incursion into Syria, even though such a move would represent another
humiliation for the Kremlin on the global stage. Although Russia acts as a
major ally of Syria’s President Bashar Al-Assad, in reality, Moscow cannot
guarantee Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. A passive approach
regarding Turkish operations in the north of the country would be yet another
demonstration of Ankara’s leverage over Russia.
Theoretically,
Russia could provide a “symmetrical response” to Turkish actions by pushing
Assad’s Syrian Arab Army to launch a military offensive in Idlib. The problem,
however, is that Assad’s forces are unlikely to make any significant gains in
the province where Türkiye increased its military presence, and continues
backing its proxy forces, namely the Syrian National Army.
In response to
Erdogan’s announcement of an operation in northern Syria, Russia has reportedly
sent fighter jets and helicopter gunships to a base close to the border with
Türkiye. The move could be interpreted as a message from the Kremlin to Ankara.
But Türkiye is quite aware of Russia’s extremely poor military performance in
Ukraine, as well as Russia’s unfavorable geopolitical position, and therefore
Moscow’s gesture will be seen as an empty threat that will not affect its
military plans.
The fate of the
Syrian Kurds will largely depend on the US, rather than on Russia. If the US
approves Turkish actions, Ankara will establish control over significant
portions of northern Syria. In the future, Türkiye, through its Syrian rebel
proxies, would be able to use the territory as an instrument against Assad in
Damascus and his ally Russia.
The writer is a political analyst in Serbia. His
work focuses mostly on the foreign policies of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine,
with special attention on energy and “pipeline politics.”
Read more Opinion and Analysis
Jordan News
.jpg)
.jpg)
