Tuesday’s three-way summit in Tehran, the first to bring the leaders of Russia,
Turkey, and Iran together since 2019, puts many common issues on the table, but
had diverse agendas. So diverse that chances that Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, and Ebrahim Raisi will agree on everything, when each is facing unique
challenges, is remote at best.
اضافة اعلان
The Tehran
meeting comes a few days after US President Joe Biden participated in an
extraordinary high-level meeting in Jeddah, hosted by Saudi Arabia, and
attended by GCC leaders plus the heads of Jordan, Egypt, and Iraq. The outcome
of the Jeddah summit is in contrast with the bilateral US-Israel declaration
signed only two days before while Biden was visiting Israel.
While the main
component of the so-called Jerusalem Declaration was a vow not to allow Iran to
militarize its nuclear program, the message from Jeddah was articulated in a
way that keeps the door open for an Arab reconciliation with Iran. There was no
mention of an anti-Iran Middle Eastern version of NATO, with Israel as a
member, and certainly no concessions given to Washington on hiking oil
production by OPEC anytime soon. More relevant, Saudi Arabia reiterated its
position on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, brushing aside any talk of
imminent normalization with Israel.
The Iranian
leadership will appreciate the value of messages coming from Jeddah. Saudi
Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud said that Riyadh continues to
extend its hand to Tehran. The UAE announced that it is considering sending an
ambassador to Iran, which Tehran has welcomed.
But the leaders
meeting in Tehran have other issues to consider. Putin wants to sign a
comprehensive strategic treaty with Iran, whose main objective is to lessen the
effect of Western sanctions on Moscow and create an anti-American alliance.
Tehran can go as far as siding with Putin, but not at the expense of losing an
opportunity, feeble as it may be, to end Western oil sanctions.
For Iran, where a
close advisor to Ali Khamenei, Kamal Kharrazi, announced this week that Tehran
has the capability of building a nuclear bomb but it chooses not to, an 11th
hour deal to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement remains possible. An
anti-Western alliance with Moscow at this stage would not help conclude a deal
that Tehran badly wants.
For Putin, any
semblance of support from states with an axe to grind with America is a good
thing. But there are limits to such support. For Tehran, normalizing ties with
Riyadh carries a huge geopolitical value. Such rapprochement could end many of
the region’s conflicts. After all, Iran is aware of its geographical destiny as
a neighbor of Arab Gulf states.
For Erdogan, a
pragmatic leader who has no qualms about shifting sides and switching
positions, cementing Turkey’s presence and influence over two anti-US countries
is enough to keep his country a major geopolitical player, regionally and
beyond. He has been threatening to launch a major military operation in
northern Syria for weeks. But Moscow and Tehran have different takes on such an
operation. Why Ankara wants to engage in a risky military adventure in northern
Syria is difficult to fathom.
Iran had stated
that it opposes any operation that threatens the territorial integrity of
Syria. Neither is Moscow happy with Turkey’s meddling in Syria, which it sees
as an extension of its own geopolitical influence in the region. The fact that
Moscow is caught up in the Ukrainian quagmire makes it apprehensive about any
serious shift in the balance of power in Syria.
Topping all this
is the fact that Israel, in the wake of Biden’s visit, has made direct threats
vis-à-vis Tehran. On Monday, Israeli army chief Aviv Kohavi said that the
military is preparing for the possibility that it would have to act against
Iran’s nuclear program.
Israel and Iran
have been engaged in an indirect war for years. But the fact that Israel is
considering an attack on Iran does not please anybody. The US, the Europeans,
and the Arab countries are in no mood to see another unpredictable war break
out in the region. Certainly, when it comes to igniting another war in the
region, Israel is in a minority of one.
While the Tehran
summit offers much in terms of a photo op, a platform for some fiery
statements, and a semblance of an accord, the reality is that the three leaders
have less in common than it appears. Their personal agendas are not in harmony,
and while the challenges may bring them together form now, dealing with them
leaves much to be desired.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator
based in Amman.
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