For decades, young Tunisians have struggled to move beyond
what American political scientist Diane Singerman refers to as “waithood,” the
limbo where university graduates in the Middle East and North Africa idle as
they look for employment. Today, the frustration of those unemployed youth
epitomizes the predicament Tunisia finds itself in as the country searches for
light at the end of the long social and economic tunnel.
اضافة اعلان
Despite politicians’ promises to create jobs and correct
development imbalances after the toppling of the Ben Ali regime in January
2011, 30 percent of university graduates remain unemployed. Tunisia’s sluggish
economic growth over the last decade has hobbled the government’s ability to
hire graduates – or anybody else for that matter. In the absence of reforms,
the private sector has also suffered.
The International Monetary Fund and other foreign lenders
are now pressuring Tunisia to introduce meaningful reforms, which would include
reducing the share of the state budget devoted to civil service salaries – a
ratio considered one the highest in the world. There are already 650,000 public
service employees in a population of less than 12 million, and that does not
include the 150,000 workers in state-owned companies. And despite recent
expressions of satisfaction over “progress” in the “technical” round of talks
between the government and the IMF, the coming months are unlikely to be any
easier for Tunisia.
Ripple effects from Ukraine, including higher oil prices and
more expensive grain imports, will add to the country’s economic challenges. On
the way to securing a $4 billion loan deal to fill the country’s 2022 budget
gap, Prime Minister Najla Bouden must assemble a reform package that will
satisfy the IMF while keeping social upheaval in check. Her Cabinet has been
floating suggestions that include cuts to price subsidies and public service
job cuts.
Those in power today must surmount a legacy of unrealistic
expectations nurtured by successive governments. At one time, president Beji
Caid Essebsi thought Tunisia deserved to receive a full-fledged Marshall Plan
from the West as a reward for having sparked the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings.
Nothing resembling that came through.
Some post-2011 administrations vowed to reinvent the
socioeconomics of the country. Instead, they used international loans to pay
workers’ salaries, provide subsidies, and shore up the finances of failing
government-owned companies. Populism trumped budget realities while creating a
monstrous debt problem.
Nothing illustrates better the country’s unused potential
than the large number of highly skilled workers who are emigrating in droves.
Tens of thousands of doctors and engineers have left for Europe and Gulf
countries. Less fortunate Tunisians are trying the path of illegal emigration
through Italy.
There are obvious trepidations about the needed reforms, and
many fret over the possible social repercussions. President Kais Saied has said
that passing on the costs of austerity measures to the poor is “a red line”
which he is unwilling to cross. Foreign donors know the country is walking on
thin ice, given that the unemployed and the poor, including many who used to
belong to the middle classes, are unwilling to continue footing the country’s
bills.
It will not be easy for the government to strike compromises
with the powerful UGTT labor union, which has just come out of its general
congress buoyed by the re-election of its leadership. The union will bargain
hard to protect the old system of entitlements and ensure that reform measures
do not further penalize workers. Unsure to what extent its members will be willing
to accept sacrifices, the union has already drawn lines in the sand over price
subsidies and preservation of public enterprises.
Another challenge during the months ahead is the likely
instability linked to the country’s fractious politics. Considering recent
statements by the UGTT’s leader Noureddine Taboubi, the union is jockeying for
a more assertive political role.
“Time is up,” Taboubi said in a recent interview, insisting
that “concessions” are needed to end political feuding. But that is easier said
than done. It will be particularly tough to reenact the events of 2013, when
the trade unions were part of a civil society National Dialogue Quartet, which
pulled the country from the brink of civil war. The quartet’s efforts
eventually earned Tunisia a Nobel Peace Prize and a lot of political mileage
that was quickly squandered.
Then, there is the external front. Some foreign donors hope
Saied will use his high stock in terms of public opinion to sell the painful
reforms to the public. While he prepares the country for a referendum and early
elections by December, the president is likely to insist on social measures
that would mitigate the impact of the economic reforms.
At the same time, most Western powers do not know what to
make of Saied. There appears to be ambivalence toward the Tunisian leader who
invoked “exceptional measures” in July to suspend parliament and rule by
decree.
Despite pressures, Saied has not budged from his position
and seems unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future. Western governments are
likely to remain on wait-and-see mode. Responding with aid cuts is not viewed
as an option, given that it could destabilize the country.
Meanwhile, most Tunisians know the solution to the country’s
woes starts and ends at home, with the building of common ground that would
allow the nation to minimize and manage the turbulence ahead. The costs of
prolonged “waithood” for unemployed youth, inadequate management of the
economic crisis, and strife-driven politics have been high. And the bill is
long overdue.
The writer is the editor of The Arab Weekly. He previously
served in the Tunisian government and as a diplomat in Washington. ©:
Syndication Bureau, www.syndicationbureau.com
Read more Opinion and Analysis
.jpg)
.jpg)
