The world just passed
a quiet milestone, topping 8 billion people on Earth. Embedded in this
demographic story is an important developmental one: we are healthier,
wealthier, and better educated than at any time in human history.
اضافة اعلان
And yet, macro numbers offer little solace to the
800 million people who still lack access to electricity, or the roughly same
amount who go to sleep hungry.
The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated many of the
existing inequalities in our world and added a range of new problems, from
supply chain-induced food insecurity to trillions of dollars in economic losses
worldwide.
A deep dive into the latest United Nations World
Population Prospects report reveals that the fastest growing populations are
concentrated in low-income and developing countries. These youthful, growing
societies can be a demographic gift or a burden. Thus, a key question facing
these countries, and the world, is: what’s the best way to ensure that
fast-growing, large populations become a dividend to be multiplied rather than
problems that could metastasize?
Let us start with the eight countries that the UN
estimates will account for about half of the world’s population growth over the
next three decades: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia,
India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Tanzania. If the world hits 9.7
billion people by 2050 — as the UN projects — roughly 850 million new souls will
reside in one of these countries.
None of these fast growing eight have a history of
good governance or sound economic management, but all of them are brimming with
talented and innovative people who could contribute immensely to their own
countries and the world — if their talent is unleashed.
Every government faces the fundamental challenge of
helping their people thrive and prosper. It is a 21st century corollary to that
Enlightenment idea that government should seek to “maximize the greatest
happiness for the greatest number”. Happiness, of course, is hard to measure,
but human development is not — nor is income per capita.
Of the eight countries expected to fuel future
population growth, only one cracks the top 100 on the UN Human Development
Index: Egypt, squeaking in at number 97. All, except for Egypt, fall into the
two lowest categories of the index — medium or low development. They all sit at
or near the bottom of income per capita classifications.
Are these
countries prepared for the demographic deluge? Will they be overwhelmed, or
will they flourish?
Large populations in failing and flailing economies
are inherently destabilizing — both within their borders and beyond them. On
the other hand, large populations in booming economies with strong human
development can act as a powerful force multiplier that can lift many boats at
home and abroad.
Beyond Egypt and the other seven countries, where
does the Middle East and North Africa stand? The fastest growing, large
populations in the region are Sudan, Yemen, and Iraq. The Population Reference
Bureau, a non-profit research center, projects Sudan’s population to grow by 80
percent through 2050, tipping it over 84 million people. Iraq could approach a
population of 75 million by the end of 2050, while Yemen could see its
population swell to 55 million.
While there is no one-size-fits-all model, it is clear by now that countries that invest in education and health care, promote a healthy and vibrant private sector, create regulatory environments conducive to entrepreneurship, tamp down corruption, and build the infrastructure of connectivity tend to be those that sit atop the rankings of development indexes.
By contrast, other populous countries in the region
— like Iran and Morocco — are growing slowly, with Iran’s fertility rate of 1.7
births per woman on par with notoriously slow-going Scandinavian countries. Sudan’s
fertility rate, for comparison, clocks in at 4.5.
On income per capita scores and human development
rankings, Gulf Cooperation Council countries tend to rise above the rest of the
MENA region. Surely, oil and gas wealth has played a role in those rankings,
but sound governance, particularly in the most advanced countries like the UAE
(ranked 26 in the world on the UN’s Human Development Index, ahead of Spain and
France) is also an important factor.
Years of mismanagement, inefficiency, corruption and,
in some cases, civil or regional wars have left several countries in the region
perennially playing catch-up, the gap widening each year. What is to be done?
Unfortunately, the region holds many examples of
what is not to be done. From Beirut to Tripoli to Tehran, corrupt elites have
siphoned off the wealth of their people, while squandering their present and
future. All three countries — Lebanon, Libya, and Iran — possess strategic
geography, talented populations and, in the case of Libya and Iran, immense
natural resources.
While there is no one-size-fits-all model, it is
clear by now that countries that invest in education and health care, promote a
healthy and vibrant private sector, create regulatory environments conducive to
entrepreneurship, tamp down corruption, and build the infrastructure of
connectivity tend to be those that sit atop the rankings of development
indexes.
There are no secrets in developing a country’s
success. We know what must be done. The countries that have been doing it thus far
— and continue to do it — will be winners in the 21st century. Most
importantly, their peoples will be in positions to achieve the most important
human development goal of all: reaching their full potential.
Afshin Molavi, is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins
School of Advanced International Studies, and editor and founder of the
Emerging World newsletter. Syndication Bureau.
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