The Black Sea basin has become a flashpoint due to Russia’s
interventions in Georgia and Ukraine. This has implications not only for
European security, but for Mediterranean security as well.
اضافة اعلان
As the prospect of a larger conflict between Ukraine and
Russia looms, close attention should be paid to its possible effects on the
Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The ties between the conflict in Ukraine
and the MENA region are more complex than they may seem at first glance.
Regional states have a direct interest in preventing escalation and, in the
case of heightened conflict, in minimizing its consequences as quickly as
possible.
There are three key areas where the MENA region will be
affected by a large-scale confrontation between Russia and Ukraine: energy, due
to expected interruptions of global energy flows; agriculture, because of
possible disruptions of agricultural trade and grain production in the Black
Sea basin; and refugees, as yet another humanitarian crisis would stress an
already under-funded and over-extended global aid system.
Energy
Potential natural gas supply disruptions in Europe in the
case of conflict between Russia and Ukraine are a major concern for the US and
the EU, and as a result, they are taking measures to strengthen European energy
security. Disruptions in the oil market are also possible. They could be caused
either by financial sanctions — wherein buyers would not be able to buy Russian
energy products — or by risks related to the transportation of Russian energy
products, especially through the Black Sea and Ukrainian territory.
Russian natural gas accounts for about 40 percent of the EU
gas market and making up for its disruption would not be easy. It is already
known that Qatar and the US are exploring options to provide Europe with gas
shipments in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine; the topic was on the
agenda to be discussed by President Joe Biden and Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim
bin Hamad Al Thani, during the latter’s White House visit on January 31.
It would not be the first time Qatar stepped in to alleviate
a sudden energy crisis. In the aftermath of the 2011 Fukushima incident, Qatar
— with the approval of European buyers — directed shipments to Japan, and in
2013 it helped Egypt to fill gas shortages. Qatar can provide more gas to
Europe, working with the EU, US, and its Asian buyers, to find ways to divert
cargoes from Asia to Europe in case of emergency.
Qatar is undergoing a major expansion of its liquefied
natural gas (LNG) capacity, with new plants that will come online in both the
US and Qatar from 2024. By helping Europe now, Qatar will certainly improve its
image and its chances to sign long-term contracts with European buyers. This
would achieve the country’s goal, as stated by Qatar’s energy minister, to
“monetize [gas] fields in the fastest way possible”.
In addition to Qatar, there are other MENA countries that
could seize the moment to help Europe reduce its dependence on Russia. Egypt
already increased its LNG supply to Europe, and Algeria could provide an
additional 7 billion cubic meters annually to the EU. These MENA gas producers
could be part of the solution, while increasing their market share and showing
goodwill in the current situation could bring them lucrative contracts in the
future.
Regional energy producers could also help in the event of an
oil supply crunch. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait have oil products comparable
to Russia. These countries currently have spare capacity — according to the
International Energy Agency, nearly 4 million barrels per day — and logistics
that could be used to replace at least some of the oil normally provided by
Russia. In 2021, those three countries’ exports to the EU were three times
lower than Russia’s. Giving a helping hand by sending more oil to the European
continent would confirm their reputation as reliable producers and could secure
long-term contracts in the European oil market at the expense of Russia’s
market share, which would decline if Russian banks and companies came under
sanctions.
Agriculture
The Black Sea basin is one of the world’s most important
areas for grain and agricultural exports. An estimated 12 percent of the total
global grain trade passes through the Bosphorus every year, with many of these
shipments heading to nearby MENA countries.
Ukraine exports 95 percent of its grain through the Black
Sea and more than 50 percent of its wheat exports went to the MENA region in
2020. Half of Lebanon’s and 43 percent of Libya’s wheat imports came from
Ukraine. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, relies heavily on imports
from the Black Sea region. Additionally, Ukraine is Egypt’s primary supplier of
corn.
Extensive conflict or a blockade of the Black Sea would
limit the agricultural products available to MENA countries, giving rise to a
potential food crisis. Supplies from Ukraine would need to be replaced by those
from another source, which would result in a hike in prices; they are already
at a 10-year high, reaching levels comparable to those during the Arab Spring.
This is a strong motivator for MENA countries to try to
persuade Russia to de-escalate. Turkey already showed its willingness to help
defuse tensions. But other countries on good terms with President Vladimir
Putin, such as Egypt, which will be impacted by a reduced flow of goods from
the Black Sea region, could be more involved in convincing the Russian leader.
After the 2014 annexation of Crimea, Russia tried to improve
its relations with all countries in the Middle East and attract foreign
investment from the region to reduce the impact of Western sanctions and avoid
isolation. It managed to do so, but its balancing act of pursuing good
relations with all regional powers is fragile and investments from the region
mostly came from establishing joint investment funds and stakes in oil
projects.
MENA leaders could persuade Putin to de-escalate by
emphasizing that in a harsher sanctions environment, where transactions in
dollars will be off limits for Russian companies, they will be forced to divest
from joint funds. The future prospect of a Russian invasion in Ukraine would
put them in the difficult position of choosing between doing business with the
West or with Moscow, and this would make the Kremlin’s current regional
balancing act impossible to sustain. Consequently, Russia’s presence in the
MENA region would become more costly and challenging, especially in countries
where conflicts exist and Moscow is involved.
Humanitarian crisis
International funding for humanitarian aid and
reconstruction is already strained, with the United Nations estimating that a
record number of people will need assistance in 2022. A conflict in Ukraine
would further burden a system that is maxed out. Countries in the MENA region,
such as Yemen, continue to be afflicted by conflict and remain in need of
humanitarian aid, reconstruction, and development funds. MENA countries are
also struggling to resolve their own refugee crises. It is in the region’s best
interest to do what it can to prevent further escalation of the conflict
between Ukraine and Russia, which would cause more suffering and destruction
and require more resources to alleviate its effects.
The MENA region is not isolated from the consequences of a
potential Ukrainian-Russian war. Countries in the region, especially oil and
gas producers, can help mitigate some of the effects, but it is better for them
to do everything in their power to prevent it in the first place.
The writer is an analyst with expertise in Russia, energy,
foreign policy, and arms control. You can follow him on Twitter @Cristi_t_85.
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