The risk of chaos in southern Syria
represents a major security challenge for Jordan. The problems have multiplied;
they are no longer limited to the presence of pro-Iran militias and of drug
trafficking groups, but now see the presence of terrorist groups in the area.
اضافة اعلان
This is happening
at a time of wider instability in the region, including in Iraq and Lebanon,
where the power vacuum is likely to impact coordinated security capabilities.
The ongoing
political stalemate in Lebanon, combined with increasing social unrest, will
enable the infiltration into Lebanese Islamist extremist territory terrorist
cells fleeing the southern provinces of Syria. These groups seem to have the
capacity to finance themselves, through various illicit operations, including
smuggling, which will enable them to penetrate the social structure of rural
areas and put at risk the internal security environment.
There is no doubt
that since the war in Ukraine began, Russia’s priorities shifted, and this had
a negative impact on the security and stability of Syria. A new approach is
needed to deal with this new development, which posed a growing risk,
particularly to countries like Jordan and Israel.
Jordan’s priority
is to avoid chaos and to ensure control of these areas through official
partners and allies that can contain and minimize the presence of terrorist
cells, since instability in this area will have direct security implications
for Jordan.
There is no doubt that since the war in Ukraine began, Russia’s priorities shifted, and this had a negative impact on the security and stability of Syria.
At the same time,
Israel wants to avoid Iranian or Hezbollah presence in the region, and appears
to be willing to take serious measures to ensure that this happens. This means
there is a great risk of conflict and violence in this area.
Although various
members of Daesh have recently been eliminated, the group’s activities appear
to be expanding to Deir Ezzor, toward Iraq, and the province of Daraa, toward Jordan.
This expansion of activities has the potential of starting new waves of
terrorism.
The risk that
terrorist groups could exploit this fragile security situation in the southern
and eastern parts of Syria is increasing. In order to tackle this problem, and
be ready for any terrorist escalation, solid intelligence work, wider
cooperation amongst intelligence services and a clear understanding of the
nature of the situation of terrorists in this phase must be boosted.
Amer Al-Sabaileh is a Jordanian university professor and
geopolitical expert. He is a leading columnist in national, regional, and
international media, offers consultancies to think tanks and speaks at
international conferences on Middle East politics and developments.
Read more Opinion and Analysis
Jordan News
.jpg)
.jpg)
