This
is probably the worst year for the two-state solution since the UN’s 1947
Partition Plan for British Mandate Palestine. One can also add that 2023 is the
worst year for delivering an independent Palestinian state since the signing of
the Oslo Accords, 30 years ago. And yet, with a two-month-old
Israeli war on Gaza going on with no end in sight, with settler rampages against Palestinians
out of control, and the Israeli occupation army storming Palestinian refugee
camps in the West Bank on an almost daily basis — resulting in unprecedented
destruction of infrastructure while the civilian death count overall is
breaking all previous records — US officials and their European counterparts
are again talking about the
two-state solution.
اضافة اعلان
Arab
and Muslim leaders also speak of the two-state solution, even though, for the
majority of analysts and experts,
Israel has long since bulldozed that path, as
it fattened illegal settlements and built dozens of new ones. A few days after
Oct. 7, which triggered the ongoing war — one whose death toll has surpassed
the civilian casualties of all previous Arab-Israeli wars combined —
President Joe Biden and his top aides began to mention the two-state solution again, all
while giving Israel the green light to pursue its destructive campaign of the
Gaza Strip without setting an end date.
The
partition of Palestine so it could accommodate
Israel and the native Palestinians was proposed in the 1947 Partition Plan, which the Arabs rejected.
Almost two decades later, after the 1967 war and under
UN Security Council Resolution 242, Israel was told to withdraw to the June 1967 line, including
East Jerusalem. The fate of the
Gaza Strip and the West Bank was to be decided
later on, although the principle of land-for-peace was stated.
But aside from the political, logistical, and demographic nightmare that creating a contiguous Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip will present, the reality is that Israeli leaders have long since lost the political will to end the occupation or cede any land to a Palestinian state.
Both
sides rejected the resolution, for various reasons. And then Jordan’s claims to
the West Bank, which it had ruled until 1967, came to an end when the
Arab League in 1974 recognized the Palestine Liberation Organization as the sole
legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. Jordan finally
relinquished all claims, except for the Jerusalem Waqf, in 1988.
The
1979
Egypt-Israel peace treaty spoke of self-rule for the
Palestinians and the US restated this position in the 1980s with Ronald Reagan’s “Palestinian
autonomy and self-government” declaration. The concept of a Palestinian interim
self-government in the Occupied Territories was stated in the Oslo I Accord of
1993, with the final status to be negotiated within five years. Oslo II only
succeeded in partitioning the
West Bank into areas A, B, and C, effectively
denying the nascent Palestinian Authority control of more than 60 percent of
the remaining territory. All attempts to revive the peace process and reach a
final agreement to end the occupation and create a Palestinian state reached a
dead end. Both sides blamed the other.
But
the important fact to remember is that, while the land-for-peace proposal evolved
into what we know today as the
two-state solution, it has been eroding ever
since Oslo. In the wake of the historic peace agreement between
Israel and the PLO, the former unleashed multiple waves of settlement building — not allowed
under the accords — so that there were, as of January,
144 Israeli settlements in the West Bank, including 12 in East Jerusalem, and more than 100 illegal
outposts. The estimated number of settlers in the West Bank today is nearly
800,000.
But
aside from the political, logistical, and demographic nightmare that creating a
contiguous Palestinian state in the
West Bank and Gaza Strip will present, the
reality is that Israeli leaders have long since lost the political will to end
the occupation or cede any land to a Palestinian state.
The
UN Partition Plan would have given the Palestinians about 40 percent of
historical Palestine. Implementing Resolution 242 (the two-state solution)
would give them less than a third, while Donald Trump’s peace plan of 2020
would have given them roughly the same but with major land swaps and no East
Jerusalem. Most settlements would remain and the Palestinian areas would be cut
off from each other.
Israel would annex the Jordan Valley. Both the
Palestinians and Jewish settlers rejected it.
Benjamin Netanyahu said nothing
because he knew Trump’s plan would not fly.
Today,
Netanyahu and his far-right coalition partners openly say that they will not
give up an inch of land. Netanyahu last week declared before his Likud party
members that he is the only politician who can prevent the creation of a
Palestinian state. He said that Israel will not make the Oslo mistake ever
again. He also said
that Gaza will remain under Israeli security control and
that the PA will not be allowed to govern there.
Israeli
President Isaac Herzog said this is not the time to discuss the two-state
solution. The Hebrew press reported that Israeli officials have asked their
American counterparts not to speak of that solution publicly. Fewer Israelis
are today willing to accept that concept while the
war in Gaza remainsin conclusive.
The
two-state solution is a dud. Its evolution is a perfect example of the law of
diminishing returns. Now, it has become a zero-sum game for the Palestinians,
while the rest of the world continues to ignore the profound changes that
Israeli politics has undergone in the past 20 years. Other options, like full
annexation of the Occupied Territories and/or population transfer, are doomsday
scenarios.
The
outcome of the war on
Gaza not withstanding, it is important to note that
neither the Biden administration nor its successor will be able to resurrect
any solution that will force Israel to withdraw from the Occupied Territories,
not to mention allow a Palestinian state to come into existence. In the US, it
is a combination of an endemically weak presidency, a divided Congress, and a
polarized political establishment, with the Zionist lobby having far too much
influence on foreign policy. Add to that Iran and its proxies, the role of
Russia and China in the Middle East, and a divided Europe and you get an idea
of why it is impossible for any power to force Israel into giving up its
control of Palestinian territory.
The two-state solution is a dud. Its evolution is a perfect example of the law of diminishing returns.
The
events of Oct. 7 have sent shockwaves through Israeli society and opened wounds
that will not heal shortly, while
Israel’s bloody response in Gaza has
radicalized Palestinians even further. The two people have never been so far
apart.
Netanyahu
has so far challenged every US position on postwar Gaza. Partitioning Gaza and
the creation of buffer zones remain on the agenda. Keeping security control
means reoccupation and the forced transfer of Gazans is a strong possibility.
The situation created by the Oct. 7 event has complicated the conflict in a
manner never seen before, at least not since the Second Intifada.
So,
believing that the two-state solution — now an anachronistic term — could kick
in automatically after the war is over is unrealistic and naive. Its demise
also stands to rattle the Abraham Accords and their future, not to mention
create cracks in older peace treaties.
Itwill put Israel before difficult and polarizing tests once the war is over. It
will push Palestinians back to the wall. This is a conflict that is about to
get worse, with no hope that it will ever get a chance for a peaceful
resolution.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
Disclaimer:
Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Jordan News' point of view.
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