A recent spike in aggressive behavior by the Russian military over
Syria, coupled with
the downing of an American drone by a Russian fighter jet in
the
Black Sea, is prompting fears that Moscow and Washington are on a collision
course to confrontation.
اضافة اعلان
While scuffles and standoffs between
Russia and the US in
northeast Syria are not new, developments this month have sparked concern among
analysts that a more serious skirmish is possible. De-escalation is urgently needed
to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control.
American
and Russian militaries have operated in an uneasy coexistence in Syria since the
Kremlin sent forces there in 2015 to support the Syrian regime.
Russian aircraft are acting aggressively toward US bases in a manner not typical of an organized military force, commanders said.
US troops
were deployed to northeast Syria in 2014 to counter the Daesh terrorist group in
cooperation with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Today, approximately
900 US service members remain to keep a potential resurgence of the group at bay.
‘Concerning’
Russian aggression
Notably,
the US and Russia established communication channels in 2015 to prevent direct military
encounters. But since March 1, US forces have reported a surge in unprofessional
behavior by Russia’s air force in Syria. Russian aircraft are acting aggressively
toward US bases in a manner not typical of an organized military force, commanders
said. For instance, armed Russian jets reportedly flew sorties over American bases in the
country nearly every day last month, violating the deconfliction agreement between the two countries.
Lt. Gen.
Alexus G. Grynkewich, the top US air force general in the Middle East, said Russia’s
aggressive posture in Syria is linked to the return of Russian commanders after failing in Ukraine. “To
me, it’s very, very concerning,” he said. “I believe that some of those Russian
leaders are trying to rebuild their reputation.”
The US is signaling that it will take all necessary measures to defend its forces in Syria and the wider region
The erratic
behavior, previously a nuisance, became a major concern for the Pentagon after a
Russian Su-27 fighter jet damaged a US Reaper drone west of Crimea, causing it
to crash into international waters.
In a statement,
the US military’s European Command criticized the pilot’s
“unsafe and unprofessional” interception, and said that
the Russian fighter dumped fuel and flew recklessly in front of the drone before striking its propeller. For its part, the Russian
defense ministry denied the allegations and claimed that an increase in US drone
flights off the coast of Crimea is "provocative in nature".
Crimea is
a Ukrainian peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014 and now uses as a major military
base for its war on Ukraine. As such, the drone incident highlights the dangers
of miscalculation and the threat of escalation between Russia and NATO — particularly
as the West continues to increase its military support to Ukraine.
Airspace
violationsBut although
the drone incident was serious, the situation in Syria presents greater risks. According
to US officials, Russian forces in Syria are no longer informing them about their
movements, violating protocols that require the air force that flies into areas
controlled by the other party to announce operations in advance.
Hence, when
unannounced Russian aircraft enter what the US regards as its airspace, American
warplanes intercept them. US officials argue that they are obliged to monitor Russian
aircraft movements in their airspace closely to ensure the safety of their forces
on the ground, and to prevent potential mishaps.
The US recently increased its military presence in the Middle East, in response
to the heightened aggression in Syria. In addition to deploying a squadron of A-10
attack aircraft ahead of schedule, a carrier strike group was ordered to remain
in the region to support US forces. Through these actions, the US is signaling that
it will take all necessary measures to defend its forces in Syria and the wider
region.
Averting
disaster in SyriaThese developments
are even more concerning amid the absence of clear procedures to prevent what happened in
the Black Sea from occurring in Syria. If such an event were to unfold, the US would
likely interpret it as deliberate, which could lead to a further escalation of tensions
in the region.
In times of crisis, even the slightest misunderstanding can lead to miscalculations and grave mistakes. While wise people are needed to prevent catastrophic outcomes, this approach is not foolproof.
Unfortunately,
recent developments indicate that such a scenario is no longer a remote possibility.
In times of crisis, even the slightest misunderstanding can lead to miscalculations
and grave mistakes. While wise people are needed to prevent catastrophic outcomes,
this approach is not foolproof.
With the
risk of escalation in Syria climbing, there is an urgent need for clear deconfliction
protocols between US and Russian forces. A military hotline is only useful if both
sides pick up the phone. To avert disaster in Syria, Washington and Moscow must
work to prevent confrontation — and move quickly to contain the fallout if it occurs
again.
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