A recent dinner in Washington suggests that a seemingly forthcoming visit to Turkey by Israeli President Isaac Herzog could
be about more than putting an end to strained relations between the two
erstwhile allies.
اضافة اعلان
Engineered by an influential
American Jewish leader, Malcolm Hoenlein, vice-chair of the Conference of
Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, the dinner was attended by
the Washington ambassadors of Israel, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, and
hosted by the envoy of Azerbaijan.
It was designed to find a pathway to
closer economic and security cooperation between Israel and the Turkic
countries, which have diplomatic relations with Israel.
The
significance of the dinner lies not only in the fact that it occurred in
advance of Herzog's visit. The ambassadors met as the Ukraine crisis threatened
to force Turkey to choose between NATO and Russia.
Moreover,
Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Central Asian states had attempted, three months
earlier, to blow new life into their Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking
States.
A NATO
member with close ties to Russia that has bought a Russian anti-missile system,
Turkey has backed Ukraine, tightened military cooperation with the embattled
East European state, and condemned Russia's occupation in 2014 of Crimea.
Erdogan
visited Kyiv earlier this month but saw his offer to mediate Ukraine's conflict with Russia
rebuffed by Moscow.
The
Turkish president has since said he would like to resume talks with Israel on transporting Israeli gas to Europe.
Europe’s gas supply could be in jeopardy if the West sanctions Russia in
response to a potential Russian military operation in Ukraine. The sanctions
could halt Russian gas sales to Europe.
Sanctions
could also affect TurkStream, a gas pipeline that bypasses Ukraine by running
from Russia under the Black Sea to Turkey, from where gas is pumped to Europe.
Turkish-Israeli
gas cooperation would strengthen Erdogan’s bid to position Turkey as an
alternative energy hub for Europe. Azerbaijan has said it was ready to supply Europe with
emergency gas that would flow through Turkey should the
Ukraine crisis disrupt Russian shipments.
Although
Israel has yet to confirm the trip, Herzog appears set to become the first
Israeli head of state to visit Turkey in 15 years. Herzog’s brother, Michael,
is the Israeli ambassador in Washington who attended the dinner.
Relations
between Israel and Turkey broke down after the killing in 2010 by Israeli
commandos of 10 Turkish activists onboard a ship that was part of an aid
flotilla attempting to breach the Israeli-Egyptian blockade of Gaza.
Last
month, a phone call between Yair Lapid and Mevlut Cavusoglu was the first confirmed conversation between the two countries’ foreign
ministers in 13 years.
The arrest in November on espionage charges and the subsequent
release of an Israeli tourist couple for taking pictures
of Istanbul’s Dolmabahce Palace, one of the city’s major tourist attractions,
prompted the call and paved the way for an Israeli-Turkish rapprochement.
The
palace, on the shores of the Bosporus, served as the administrative
headquarters of Ottoman sultans in the 19th century and the place of death in
1938 of Kemal Mustafa Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey.
The
couple's release also triggered the first phone call between Erdogan and top
Israeli leaders in nine years, with Herzog and Prime Minister Naftali Bennett
phoning the Turkish president separately to thank him.
The
release of the Israeli couple and Erdogan’s outreach served multiple purposes.
The Turkish leader did not want the incident to scare off badly needed tourists
at a time of severe economic crisis. The incident also provided Erdogan an
opportunity to break through to Israel and reduce the United Arab Emirates'
geopolitical advantage in maintaining close ties with Israel.
From
Erdogan’s perspective, the Ukraine crisis has only increased the utility of
improved relations with Israel. Erdogan last week visited the UAE for two days, as part of
a regional balancing act in which various Middle Eastern states are trying to
ensure that their differences and multiple regional conflicts do not spin out
of control.
UAE
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed heralded the visit, Erdogan’s first in almost a
decade, as the start of a "prosperous new phase" of cooperation
with Turkey. UAE is Turkey’s foremost trading partner in the
Gulf.
Meanwhile,
Sabah, a flagship pro-government Turkish daily, reported in recent days
that Turkish intelligence had last autumn foiled an attempt to assassinate
Turkish-Israeli businessman Yair Geller.
Some
analysts suspect that the timing of the disclosure was intended to counter
Israeli calls on Turkey to halt its support for Hamas, the Islamist group that
controls the Gaza Strip, as part of a rapprochement with Israel.
The
paper said several suspects linked to Iran had been detained. Turkish officials
suggested the assassination attempt was in retaliation for the killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020 by
Israeli agents.
For
Erdogan, repairing relations with Israel and forging a potential partnership in
the Caucasus and Central Asia means walking a tightrope. Erdogan has to balance
improving relations with countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE,
perceived by their critics as having abandoned the defence of Muslim causes,
including the plight of the Palestinians, with projecting himself as the Muslim
leader who cares about his co-religionists.
As a
result, Cavusoglu made a point of saying last week that “any step we take with
Israel regarding our relations, any normalization, will not be at the expense of the Palestinian cause,
like some other countries.”
At about
the same time, Turkey charged 16 people arrested last fall on charges of being
part of an Israeli spy network. Israeli intelligence
sources have denied the existence of such a network.
“Ankara’s
accusations of ‘espionage’ and apparent threats to raise the price for the
detainees show that it was using hostage diplomacy involving innocent tourists.
This is how Hamas, which is backed by Ankara’s ruling party, has also
behaved… Normal regimes don't detain innocent people,”
thundered Seth J. Frantzman, the right-wing Jerusalem Post’s Middle East
correspondent, shortly after the arrests last fall.
The
writer is an award-winning journalist and scholar and a senior fellow at the
National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute.
Read more Opinion and Analysis
.jpg)
.jpg)
