There has been a second coup in Burkina Faso; the third in the
Sahel this year. Mere months after Paul-Henri Damiba overthrew the country’s
democratically elected president, he was himself overthrown last month, and for
the same reason. The Islamist militias in the ungoverned spaces of the country
continue to claim lives, and have displaced two million people within the
country’s own borders. The countries of the Sahel are fracturing.
اضافة اعلان
What caught the attention of observers, however, was
the murky involvement of Russia. When Damiba was overthrown in January, it was
thought the country would shift its alliance from France and ask Russia for
help in its war against the militants. That did not happen and reports have trickled
out that Ibrahim Traore, the army captain who led the most recent coup, will do
so. Supporters of Traore waved Russian flags after the coup.
Most suggestive, however, was a statement by Yevgeny
Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group of mercenaries, that praised the
takeover. Prigozhin’s fighters have been seen in multiple African countries,
but only recently, as the Wagner Group has become more involved in the war in
Ukraine, has he emerged from the shadows.
Yet suggestions are all there are. Russia is
certainly up to something in West Africa — but Western analysts are still
struggling to work out precisely what. There is a murkiness to Moscow’s motives
in the region, a murkiness that makes it hard to combat its influence.
For starters, the
purpose of extensive Russian disinformation and propaganda across social media
is unclear. Increasingly sophisticated and spread in English and French across
African countries, these employ multiple platforms like Facebook and WhatsApp,
use jokes and memes, and display close knowledge of the politics of the region.
The content is not overtly political, or at least not directly related to a
specific policy outcome. But it exploits a sense of grievance against Western
countries, frames Russia as a powerful country on the side of the people,
displays nostalgia for the Soviet Union’s historical backing for anti-colonial
movements, and emphasizes how African countries can take their futures into
their own hands.
The difficulty is that many of these sentiments
could equally come from people living there.
That vagueness is what makes the content such a
threat. It can be hard to distinguish where genuine anti-French, anti-Western
sentiment ends and pro-Russian propaganda begins.
And no-one can quite tell what the Russian end goal
is in West Africa. Is it to create an anti-Western atmosphere? French troops
are managing that quite well enough. Is it to promote a pro-Russian attitude
that may filter through to leaders, who may support Russia in its war against
Ukraine? Perhaps. Is it to pave the way for potential Russian involvement in
the future? Maybe, although the content is so widespread, it is appearing in
countries Russia is not publicly involved in. Russia could be playing an
extremely long game.
Against that background of propaganda — a kind of
steady drumbeat of pro-Russian content — there is actual involvement in
political affairs. But even there, things are murky.
The wave of violence across the Sahel has created enormous upheavals and the fury against the government in many countries is a symptom of this. The brutal history of France in the region has not been forgotten. Against that background, Russia has come in to pick up the pieces, offering ethics-free mercenaries without lectures on democracy.
At the center of this murkiness is the Wagner Group.
Wagner provided protection for the president of the Central African Republic,
before expanding into Mali, a pivotal country in the Sahel’s war against
militants, and one where Western powers are unambiguously losing. There, the
group’s forces initially provided training and security. Then, with the French
departing over the summer, even more have arrived from Wagner — all operating,
if the Kremlin’s denials are to be believed, without the knowledge of Russia.
And now Wagner has suggestively appeared in Burkina
Faso, bordering Mali. Small wonder if it seems as if there is a plan.
The difficulty is none of what Russia is planning is
clear, beyond a general desire to weaken Western alliances with African
countries, extend their own ties and, perhaps, gain access to natural
resources.
And therein lies the hardest aspect of the battle
for the Sahel: Russia is sometimes the mastermind, sometimes the scavenger.
The wave of violence across the Sahel has created
enormous upheavals and the fury against the government in many countries is a
symptom of this. The brutal history of France in the region has not been
forgotten. Against that background, Russia has come in to pick up the pieces,
offering ethics-free mercenaries without lectures on democracy. But Russia has
also leveraged its history and its information warfare capabilities to create
popular support for its involvement.
Burkina Faso will not be the last coup to have
Russia’s fingerprints on it. The anti-French sentiment among West African
publics appears to be here to stay. While it continues, Sahelian countries will
be reluctant to accept any new influx of Western troops, and the French public
will be reluctant to have their children fight a war where they are not wanted.
For all its maneuvering, Russia does not have to try hard to benefit from a war
for hearts and minds that the West has lost.
Faisal Al Yafai is currently writing a book on the Middle East and is a frequent
commentator on international TV news networks. He has worked for news outlets
such as The Guardian and the BBC, and reported on the Middle East, Eastern
Europe, Asia and Africa. Twitter: @FaisalAlYafai. Syndication Bureau.
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