The latest round of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan will come as
little surprise to most. After all, the two states have been locked in various
levels of conflict for three decades, ranging from low-level exchanges of fire
to the full-scale warfare that engulfed the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in
2020.
اضافة اعلان
Yet, the latest
bout marks a major escalation, one that, if allowed to continue, could lead to
a humanitarian catastrophe and even a regional war.
Just after
midnight on September 13, Azerbaijani forces launched a wide-ranging assault on
Armenian positions across nearly 200 kilometers of their shared border. The
offensive included drones, artillery and armored vehicles, and Azerbaijani
strikes reached targets up to 40 kilometers inside Armenia. Artillery fire
rained down upon Armenian towns and villages, including the resort town of
Jermuk, destroying civilian homes and apartment blocks.
By the time fighting
stopped with a tenuous ceasefire in the evening of September 14, more than 200
soldiers had been killed (135 from Armenia, 71 from Azerbaijan), 7,500 Armenian
civilians had been displaced, and Azerbaijani troops had advanced more than 7
kilometers into Armenia.
There was little
doubt who started the fighting. Azerbaijan initially claimed that it was merely
responding to Armenian “provocations” — a claim echoed by its ally, Turkey —
but largely dropped this rhetoric in the following days in favor of other
justifications.
The same pattern has been seen repeatedly in the
past two years, including during the 2020 war — in which a long-prepared
assault was initially billed as a “counteroffensive” — and Azerbaijan’s attack
last month on Armenian positions in the Lachin corridor connecting Karabakh
with Armenia proper.
The goals of the
assault were not immediately clear, but they fit with Azerbaijani policy since
the end of the 2020 war. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev believes Armenia
made a major mistake when it failed to force his country to sign a full treaty
enshrining the gains from Armenia’s victory in the First Karabakh War, which
ended in 1994. Aliyev is determined not to repeat his enemy’s error. Instead,
he is seeking to force Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to the table to
sign a document which would relinquish what remains of the Nagorno-Karabakh
Republic to Azerbaijani control.
Similarly,
Aliyev wants Armenia to give his forces exclusive control over a sovereign
corridor connecting mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan —
something he claims Azerbaijan is owed as a result of a false interpretation of
the final clause of the 2020 ceasefire agreement.
Perhaps most
importantly of all, the attacks occurred simply because they could. With Russia
bogged down in Ukraine and other powers in no position to intervene, Aliyev
took the chance to humiliate his Armenian enemies and demonstrate Azerbaijan’s
continued primacy on the battlefield.
The Russian
absence from all of this has been striking. Russia is a major ally to Armenia
and where Moscow once wielded enough influence over Azerbaijan to halt its
aggression, bringing the 2016 “April War” to an end in just four days, it now
appears helpless before Baku.
Perhaps most importantly of all, the attacks occurred simply because they could. With Russia bogged down in Ukraine and other powers in no position to intervene, Aliyev took the chance to humiliate his Armenian enemies and demonstrate Azerbaijan’s continued primacy on the battlefield.
The present
offensive took place just days after Moscow’s forces were routed by Ukraine in
the Kharkiv region, reinforcing growing perceptions of Russian impotence.
The Russian-led
Collective Security Treaty Organization, a defensive bloc including Armenia and
four other former-Soviet states, was meanwhile fully exposed as a paper tiger
after failing to honor Armenia’s invocation of the mutual defense clause its
charter contains. With Russia ever more politically and economically isolated,
Vladimir Putin has evidently decided there is nothing to be gained by standing
up to Azerbaijan or Turkey, two countries whose friendly relations he
desperately needs.
That leaves the
response of other powers. The EU has provided little of anything beyond soft
calls for “restraint by both sides”. Many Armenians rightfully point to a July
visit by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to Baku, where she
posed beaming for the cameras alongside Aliyev to sign a gas deal, as further
emboldening Azerbaijan’s actions. The EU’s search for alternative energy
partners amidst its break with Russia has left Brussels loathe to condemn, let
alone punish, Baku’s brazen aggression.
Iran, meanwhile,
the other major state in the region, has repeatedly stated that it considers
any change in the borders of the region “unacceptable”, especially anything
that would cause it to lose its transit corridor through Armenia to the Black
Sea (via Georgia). It remains unclear, however, whether Tehran is willing to do
anything tangible that might affect Baku’s calculus.
That leaves the
US. As the only other actor capable of influencing Aliyev’s appetite,
Washington’s response has been surprisingly robust. State Department officials
have shifted their tone from the usual calls for restraint from both-sides and
placed the blame for the fighting unequivocally upon Baku. House Speaker Nancy
Pelosi visited Armenia at the weekend where she condemned Azerbaijan’s “illegal
and deadly attacks”. It will require more than just words to cow Aliyev, but
tangible measures may be forthcoming; by all accounts, it was American pressure
that convinced Baku to cease its offensive on September 14.
The reality is,
however, that more attacks are probably coming. Azerbaijan, which never
confirmed the ceasefire itself, spent the next few days spreading news of
alleged Armenian “saboteur” groups being discovered and destroyed, including in
the enclave of Nakhchivan, from where Armenia has warned of a new offensive.
Azerbaijani
officials started to openly call for a “buffer zone” on Armenian territory, one
that would be large enough for the settlement of those displaced by the
fighting. Pelosi’s visit made it clear that the US is watching the region
closely and would use levers at its disposal to dissuade Azerbaijan from
attacking again. One must hope they are enough.
Neil Hauer, is a security analyst based in Yerevan,
Armenia. His work focuses on, among other things, politics, minorities and
violence in the Caucasus. Twitter: @NeilPHauer. Syndication Bureau.
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