Take a look at Africa on a typical world map. Straddling the
equator, the continent is roughly the same size as Greenland and slightly
smaller than Russia. In reality, however, Africa is a massive landmass, a
cartographic illusion that’s about 14 times larger than Greenland; more than
twice as big as Russia; and bigger than the United States, India, Japan, parts
of Europe, and China combined.
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Now, consider another map. Imagine if we depicted countries and
continents not by their area but by their total carbon dioxide emissions. In
that map, Africa would be miniscule.
Africa has only accounted for a small amount of global
emissionsIn fact, according to researchers at the Our World in
Data project and the Energy for Growth Hub, Africa has only accounted
for about 2.73 percent of global emissions since the dawn of
industrialization.
If we removed South Africa and the countries of North Africa
from the data, the remaining Sub-Saharan African countries – home to some 1
billion people – have accounted for just 0.55 percent of total emissions.
Europe has produced 33 percent cumulative global emissions
By contrast, Europe, the launch pad of the Industrial
Revolution, has produced 33 percent of cumulative global emissions, while North
America, and Asia clock in at 29 percent each. Together, these three continents
account for more than 80 percent of total emissions.
In fact, according to researchers at the Our World in Data project and the Energy for Growth Hub, Africa has only accounted for about 2.73 percent of global emissions since the dawn of industrialization.
By now, we all know that climate change is an existential
threat to our planet and our way of life. We should also know that the largest
emitters are best prepared to adapt to the damages, while the continent that
has done the least to contribute to emissions is the most vulnerable.
From changing rainfall patterns and extreme heat to water
scarcity and rising food insecurity, the climate-related challenges in Africa
are only just beginning. The upcoming COP28 gathering in the United Arab
Emirates is an opportunity for the international community to highlight the
continent’s vulnerabilities and acknowledge its minimal contribution to the
problem.
The top priority for COP28 should be to support the
financing needs of African and other emerging and developing countries to
support affordable renewable energy. At a recent African Development Bank meeting,
COP28 President-designate Sultan Al Jaber called the lack of available,
accessible, affordable finance the “critical challenge” that is “putting the
world’s climate goals and Africa’s sustainable development at risk.”
More than a decade ago, developed nations pledged $100
billion in annual climate finance to developing countries beginning in
2020 to help bridge this funding gap. Those pledges have failed to
materialize.
Wealthy nations are dismal
Al Jaber has called wealthy nations’ efforts in this
regard “dismal.” While “expectations are high,” he adds, “trust is low.”
Climate finance is rising across the world as countries race
to meet net zero goals and companies opt to green their businesses. But the
money is not arriving in Africa. Bogolo Kenewendo, a UN Climate Change
High-Level Champions’ special advisor, says that Africa – home to 16 percent of
the world’s population and 25 percent of the world’s remaining rainforests –
only attracts 3 percent of climate finance. She also notes that just six
African countries are on the receiving end of this finance.
For COP28 to have a meaningful impact, leaders must marshal
the political will to ensure that past pledges are met and new ones are made.
African countries should top these funding goals.
Beyond supporting renewable energy in Africa, however, we
must also understand this basic fact: Africa’s emissions are low not because of
poor policies or abundant green power. Rather, it’s due to underdevelopment.
Simply put, much of Africa was left behind in the fossil
fuel-driven industrialization that has made the world wealthier and healthier
and more connected than at any time in human history.
For COP28 to have a meaningful impact, leaders must marshal the political will to ensure that past pledges are met and new ones are made. African countries should top these funding goals.
A staggering 600 million Africans lack access to
electricity, roughly 43 percent of the continent’s population. This means
inevitably that fossil fuels will be needed to get more Africans on the power
grid. Yes, renewable energy sources should be cultivated, but Africans deserve
the same rights to electricity and power that so many in the developed world take
for granted. Fossil fuels will be part of that mix.
“If we’re going to have a just transition from fossil fuels
to renewable energy, we’ll need both,” says NJ Ayuk, executive director of the
African Energy Chamber. “We’ll need fossil fuels to ensure energy security and
drive industrialization in developing nations, even as the world works to pull
together the necessary investments, infrastructure, and governance to make a
world fueled by renewable energy work.”
With Africa’s population projected to double by
2050, we should all hope for faster growth to meet the tremendous demand
for jobs, infrastructure, healthcare, education, and other needs. Greater
access to energy will help achieve those goals.
We are all children of Africa – it’s the place where humans
first roamed the Earth – and humanity’s future will increasingly be African.
The continent’s success in economic development, and in meeting the climate
challenge, is in everyone’s interests.
The contours of climate change responsibility are as skewed
as the average atlas. At COP28, we can finally redraw the map.
Afshin Molavi is a senior fellow at the Foreign
Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
and editor and founder of the Emerging World newsletter. Twitter: @AfshinMolavi
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