The Republicans who now control the House will soon try to slash
Social Security and Medicare. They plan to achieve this by holding the economy
hostage, threatening to create a financial crisis by refusing to raise the
federal debt ceiling. The interesting questions are why they want to do this,
given that it appears politically suicidal, and how Democrats will respond.
اضافة اعلان
Before I get into the puzzles, let me start by pointing out that
the plot against the social safety net is not a conspiracy theory. The general
shape of the scheme has been widely reported for months. The arithmetic is also
clear: Without deep cuts in popular social programs, it is not possible to
achieve huge reductions in the budget deficit while at the same time depriving
the IRS of the resources it needs to go after tax cheats.
And beyond all that, we now have it in black and white — well,
blue on blue. CNN has obtained a screenshot of a slide presented at a
closed-door Republican meeting Tuesday. The first bullet point calls for
balancing the budget within 10 years, which is mathematically impossible
without deep cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. The second calls
for reforms to “mandatory spending,” which is budget-speak for those same
programs. And the final point calls for refusing to raise the debt limit unless
these demands are met.
So, the plan is not a mystery. I would add only that if
Republicans try to assure currently retired Americans that their benefits
would not be affected, this promise is not feasible — not if they are serious
about balancing the budget within a decade.
It is true that self-identified Republicans say that they are vehemently opposed to “socialism”. But when an Economist/YouGov poll asked them which programs they considered socialistic, none of the big-ticket items made the cut.
But where is this determination to gut programs that are crucial
to well over 100 million Americans coming from? These programs are, after all,
extremely popular — even among Republican voters.
It is true that self-identified Republicans say that they are vehemently
opposed to “socialism”. But when an Economist/YouGov poll asked them which
programs they considered socialistic, none of the big-ticket items made the
cut. Social Security? Not socialism. Medicare — which is, by the way, a
single-payer national health insurance program, which we are often told
Americans would never accept — also is not socialism.
Unfortunately, that poll did not ask about Medicaid, a program
targeted at lower-income Americans that many Republicans consider a form of
“welfare.” Even so, a Kaiser Family Foundation survey found far more
Republicans approving of Medicaid than disapproving.
One reason even Republicans support major social programs may be
that GOP support comes disproportionately from older voters — and most of
America’s social spending goes to seniors. This is obviously true for Social
Security and Medicare, which kick in primarily when you reach a minimum age.
But it’s even true for Medicaid: Most of Medicaid’s beneficiaries are
relatively young, but almost two-thirds of the spending goes to seniors and the
disabled, many in nursing homes.
The attitude of the Republican rank and file, then, seems to be
that big government is bad — but when we get down to specifics, don’t cut you,
don’t cut me, cut that fellow behind the tree. Which means that the priorities
of the new House majority are wildly out of line with those of its own voters,
let alone those of the electorate as a whole.
And history says that attacks on the safety net come with a
heavy political price. George W. Bush’s attempt to privatize Social Security in
2005 surely played a role in the Democratic takeover of Congress in 2006;
Donald Trump’s attempt to kill Obamacare helped Nancy Pelosi regain the
speakership in 2018.
So, where is the push to gut Social Security and Medicare coming
from? Ronald Reagan left the White House 34 years ago. The modern GOP seems
much less animated by small-government ideology than by the desire to wage
culture war. And there’s no necessary connection between culture war and
right-wing economics. For example, France’s anti-immigrant National Rally has, in
effect, staked out an economic position somewhat to the left of the government
of President Emmanuel Macron.
Put it this way: Advocating a welfare state for white people
might well be politically effective. But in America, it’s a road not taken.
Here is what I think is going on: Even now many, perhaps most
Republicans in Congress aren’t culture-war zealots. Instead, they’re careerists
who depend, both for campaign contributions and for post-Congress career
prospects, on the same billionaires who have supported right-wing economic
ideology for decades. They won’t stand up to the crazies and conspiracy
theorists, but their own agenda is still tax cuts for the rich and benefit cuts
for the poor and middle class.
And the culture warriors go along because they basically are not
interested in policy substance.
I am not completely sure that this analysis is right. But all
indications are that at some point this year, the Biden administration will
have to deal with a full-scale effort at economic blackmail, a threat to blow
up the economy unless the safety net is shredded. And I worry that Democrats
still are not taking that threat seriously enough.
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