Last week, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan accused Russia of
trying to buy hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from Iran for its
ongoing war in Ukraine.
اضافة اعلان
The claim was
plausible. Although the Russian army has its own domestically produced drones,
they are not as advanced as the Western hardware that has given Ukraine an
advantage in the air. That Moscow would seek to purchase UAVs from abroad makes
sense.
The only problem:
Iran has little incentive to do Russia’s bidding.
Russia has long
used its ties to Iran as a source of leverage with Western powers, especially
the US. The war in Ukraine has given Tehran an opportunity to turn the tables.
In response to
Sullivan, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that while
Iran has “various forms of cooperation with Russia, including in the sphere of
defense. … We are not helping either side involved in the Ukrainian conflict”.
Iran is “trying to avoid any actions that may lead to an escalation”, he added.
While it was not
a forceful denial, there are plenty of reasons why Iran would resist Russia’s
drone request.
In 2019, when
Iran wanted to purchase the S-400 missile system from Russia, the Kremlin used
the same rhetoric that the Islamic Republic is using now. Moscow refused to
sell the weapon to Tehran, concerned that the sale would “stoke more tension in
the Middle East”. Today, Iran fears that military cooperation with Moscow in Ukraine
would further sour its relations with the West, which is why it will unlikely
engage in the drone business with a pariah state.
Some experts
believe that Sullivan’s statement about a potential delivery of Iranian drones
to Russia was a ploy by Washington to show Riyadh that the US is not ready to
cooperate with Iran and ease sanctions. In exchange for this continued stance,
the US wants Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies to increase oil production.
Presumably, this was discussed during President Joe Biden’s recent visit to
Saudi Arabia.
Iran, for its
part, could try to use Russia as a bargaining chip with the West, refusing
Moscow’s military overtures in exchange for a loosening of sanctions. The
summit between Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his Russian and Turkish
counterparts could be the very opportunity for Tehran to make its position
clear.
For instance, in
May 2019, President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia “is not a fire brigade …
and cannot rescue everything”, referring to why the Kremlin would not help
salvage the Iran nuclear deal. Why, then, would Tehran act as a “fire brigade”
for Moscow in Ukraine now?
Today, Iran fears that military cooperation with Moscow in Ukraine would further sour its relations with the West, which is why it will unlikely engage in the drone business with a pariah state.
Raisi could also
remind Putin that Russia did not hesitate to vote in favor of all six
resolutions passed by the UN Security Council against Iran from 2006 to 2010.
And he could ask Putin why Russian troops in Syria have never protected Iranian
forces there from Israeli strikes.
Finally, Raisi
could stress that while the 2007 UN Security Council embargo on conventional
arms shipments to Iran expired in October 2020, the Kremlin has still not sold
Iran any Su-35 fighter jets, Yak-130 training jets, T-90 tanks, the advanced
S-400 surface-to-air missile defense system, or the K-300P Bastion mobile
coastal defense missile system — despite Iran’s keen interest in all of them.
Days before
Russia invaded Ukraine, Iran sought to sign a $10 billion security and defense
cooperation agreement with Moscow. Tehran also wanted to join the
Russian-dominated Eurasian Economic Union and increase its political, economic,
and military ties with the Kremlin.
Russia expressed
no interest in any of it. So, now that Moscow’s position in the global arena
has significantly deteriorated, Tehran is unlikely to rush to Russia’s aid.
That does not
mean the two nations will not continue working on various matters. In May,
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexandr Novak visited Tehran, where he discussed
connecting the two countries’ national payment systems to make banking easier.
In early June, Putin and Raisi spoke by phone about the Iran nuclear deal,
while Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited the Iranian capital later
in the month to discuss bilateral ties.
Russia and Iran
will continue to develop their nominal partnership, although most likely not in
the way that American officials have telegraphed.
Isolated and
humiliated because of its disastrous war in Ukraine, Moscow is in desperate
need of allies and seeks an infusion of new military hardware. But given the
geopolitical climate, and the opportunity for Iran to take advantage of
Russia’s predicament, do not expect the assistance to come from the Islamic
Republic, at least not anytime soon.
Nikola Mikovic is a political analyst in Serbia. His work
focuses mostly on the foreign policies of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, with
special attention on energy and ‘pipeline politics’. Syndication Bureau.
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