Although the Abraham Accords have been the main focus of Arab-Israeli
peace-making since they were signed, the Arab Peace Initiative (API),
introduced by the late Saudi King Abdullah 20 years ago, remains relevant. The
Saudi leadership has made clear that it continues to adhere to the API as the
mainstay of its approach to formalizing relations with Israel. And declining
popular support for the Abraham Accords in the Arab world may make the API once
again the better reflection of a path forward for Middle East peace.
اضافة اعلان
In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, as
pressure grew in the US and globally to confront the rise of terrorism and
violent extremism emanating from the Middle East, Saudi King Abdullah unveiled
at the 2002 Arab League Summit in Beirut what was billed as a comprehensive
plan to end the Israeli-Arab conflict. A scant 10 sentences long, Abdullah’s
API called for:
-
Complete Israeli withdrawal from territories occupied in 1967, including the
Golan Heights, based on UN Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338.
-
A just settlement of the Palestinian refugee question on the basis of UN
Resolution 194.
-
Recognition of East Jerusalem as the capital of an independent Palestinian
state.
In
exchange for those measures, the member states of the Arab League would:
-
Declare an end to the Israeli-Arab conflict, entering into a peace agreement
with Israel.
-
Establish normal relations with the state of Israel.
Thus, the initiative is, in fact, a basic formula
outlining principles for negotiations and a political settlement, but one that
leaves maneuvering room for different meanings and practical solutions.
For example, it was determined that the solution to
the “Palestinian refugee problem” should be “agreed upon”. Another example is
the lack of a demand for the evacuation of all Israeli settlements in the West
Bank, which is intended to leave room for flexibility regarding arrangements
for the blocks bordering Israel. Indeed, Saudi foreign minister Saud Al Faisal
noted in 2007 that the member states would have “to take notice of new
developments, which require additions and developments in whatever is offered”.
As only 10 of the Arab League’s member states were
present at the Beirut Summit, the API was reintroduced at the 2007 Riyadh
Summit and unanimously endorsed by the member states. (Syria and Lebanon
objected to some aspects of the initiative but supported the document. The
Hamas representative abstained.) It remains to this day the single peace plan
agreed upon by all members of the Arab League.
Israeli political leaders have addressed the API in
a variety of ways since it was first introduced. Ariel Sharon, the prime
minister at the time, flatly rejected the proposal on the grounds that it would
require Israel to accept a large number of Palestinian refugees and that it
crossed Israeli “red lines”. Nevertheless, subsequent Israeli responses have
been more ambivalent. Israeli president at the time, Shimon Peres, welcomed the
plan, and then-prime minister Ehud Olmert termed it a “revolutionary change”,
while rejecting the elements related to refugee return. Former head of
government Benjamin Netanyahu has offered a variety of opinions on the plan
over the years, rejecting it in 2007, calling it as a “general idea … good” in
2015, but then rejecting it again as a basis for negotiations in 2018.
In light of the declining appeal of the Abraham Accords, which may face an even sharper challenge should the Israeli elections on November 1 usher in a hard-right government, Saudi Arabia appears interested in shaking the dust off the API as a potential alternative.
International reactions have generally been
positive. Both the George W. Bush and the Barack Obama administrations broadly
welcomed the initiative, although without necessarily embracing the specific
elements. But the API was endorsed by the Quartet on the Middle East in 2003
and recognized in the Roadmap. The UN has also expressed support for the
proposal.
A competing model for the Abraham Accords?
In light of the declining
appeal of the Abraham Accords, which may face an even sharper challenge should
the Israeli elections on November 1 usher in a hard-right government, Saudi
Arabia appears interested in shaking the dust off the API as a potential
alternative. For the Saudis, the advantages are clear. The embrace of the API
helps fend off pressure from the US to join the Abraham Accords and normalize
relations with Israel while projecting the image of pragmatic leadership that
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman seeks. Moreover, despite their willingness to
expand de facto ties to the Israeli state, they will remain reluctant to
abandon their position on the primacy of Israeli-Palestinian peace, at least
for as long as King Salman stays on the throne. Additionally, Riyadh will
remain extremely sensitive to the potential impact of normalization both on
popular attitudes in the kingdom and on its position as the leader of the
broader Islamic world.
For Israel, the balance is more complicated. The
assessment of many in Israel since 2020, that the demands presented in the API
as a condition for normalization are no longer valid, is turning out to be
wrong. The fact that Saudi Arabia, the most important of the Arab and Islamic
states, has re-emphasized its commitment to the API precisely since the Abraham
Accords were signed is a case in point. For Israel, there is a value in
maintaining a dialogue with pragmatic actors like the Saudis and trying to
develop an agreed-upon version of the API with them. At the very least,
engaging on the API will be positively received in the Arab world and may
expand popular support for a more open policy toward Israel.
Two decades after its publication and two years
after the signing of the Abraham Accords, the API is still relevant. Israel
cannot accept the document as it is — its reliance on UN Resolution 194 and
rejection of naturalization in host countries for resolving the refugee
question is problematic — but the Saudis have made clear that it is a basis for
negotiation rather than a take-it-or-leave-it demand. Thus, the initiative has
potential value for Israel, and its position toward the API deserves a renewed
examination as a basis for a discussion that will provide the country with an
opportunity to present its objections and demands.
A renewed statement on the part of Israel, in which
the API constitutes a basis for renewed negotiations, along with a willingness
to strengthen the deteriorating position of the Palestinian Authority and renew
the political process with it, may end up as the most promising path to a
breakthrough in the impasse in the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Gerald Feierstein is a distinguished senior fellow on US
diplomacy at the Middle East Institute (MEI) and director of its Arabian
Peninsula Affairs Program. Yoel Guzansky is a senior research fellow at the
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and a non-resident scholar at
MEI, specializing in Gulf politics and security. This article was first
published in MEI.
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