Now that the dust has settled on Turkey’s hotly contested
presidential election and Recep Tayyip Erdogan begins his third decade in
power, Ankara’s relationship with its southern neighbor Syria has come into
sharp focus.
اضافة اعلان
Questions about Syrian refugees, Turkey’s military involvement in
Syria, and the potential for normalized relations with the regime of Bashar
Al-Assad had hung over the election.
While the result shed light on Turkey’s approach to the crucial
issues, uncertainties persist regarding the ongoing Russian-brokered talks
between Ankara and Damascus and their trajectory amid the evolving political
landscape.
Syria’s reinstatement: positive and negative ramifications
Erdogan’s triumph and Syria’s reinstatement in the Arab League
have both positive and negative ramifications for each side, making it a
challenge to predict the outcome of these talks.
After years of diplomatic efforts, Moscow successfully
orchestrated talks between Ankara and Damascus.
The negotiations
unfolded in multiple stages, beginning with meetings between the
intelligence chiefs of Turkey and Syria and gradually expanding to involve the
defense ministers.
Despite encountering some delays and adjustments, the talks
recently reached a significant
milestone in Moscow as they were elevated to the foreign ministerial level,
coinciding with the start of Turkey’s elections.
The latest round concluded
with an agreement to maintain high-level contacts and engage in technical
discussions aimed at enhancing Syria-Turkey relations.
Hakan Fidan reportedly led talks between intelligence chiefs for
the Turkish side last year. On June 3, Erdogan appointed Fidan as his new
foreign minister in a possible sign that the sides were on track for further
rapprochement.
The warm welcome Assad received at the league’s May summit solidified Syria's reintegration into the Arab community, diminishing the importance of restoring relations with Turkey in a bid to break the regime’s diplomatic isolation.
However, the road to a comprehensive deal remains
full of obstacles. Significant disparities persist in the demands of both nations
as well as the sequencing of their implementation. Turkey’s top priority is the
dismantling of the Kurdish-led administration in northeast Syria and the
repatriation of Syrian refugees residing within its borders.
In contrast, Assad insists on the complete withdrawal
of Turkish forces from Syrian territory as a prerequisite for engaging in
discussions.
Since the latest round of talks, several significant developments have
taken place. Erdogan’s victory has eased some domestic pressures. In his effort
to show progress in repatriating Syrian refugees and mitigate a potential
backlash from his base, Erdogan had expressed eagerness to meet with Assad
before the elections.
Assad, however, was keenly aware of Erdogan’s motives, proceeding
cautiously and deliberately to strengthen his bargaining power. Despite
pressure from Moscow, Assad remained resolute in not
aiding Erdogan through a potential deal. The Syrian leader’s preference was
for a new administration in Turkey that would restore ties with favorable terms
for Damascus.
Syrian side must go first
With Erdogan securing
another five-year term, Assad may reassess his wait-and-see strategy and
consider his options in light of this new reality. Recent statements indicate a shift in
Turkey’s position, with Erdogan’s spokesman saying that leadership-level talks
would require noticeable steps taken by the Syrian side first.
While Erdogan’s victory has strengthened his position, Syria’s
return to the Arab League may reduce Assad’s willingness to make concessions.
The warm
welcome Assad received at the league’s May summit solidified Syria's
reintegration into the Arab community, diminishing the importance of restoring
relations with Turkey in a bid to break the regime’s diplomatic isolation.
Moreover, Turkey’s active engagement in conflict zones such as
Iraq, Libya, and Syria have strained relations with certain Arab states,
prompting them to seek ways to counterbalance Ankara’s growing regional
influence.
While there may not be a direct call for Assad to adopt a more assertive position against Turkey’s presence in Syria, it is expected that he will proceed with caution to avoid any negative repercussions on his relationships with Arab states.
While there may not be a direct call for Assad to adopt a more
assertive position against Turkey’s presence in Syria, it is expected that he
will proceed with caution to avoid any negative repercussions on his
relationships with Arab states.
This introduces an additional level of complexity to the
Ankara-Damascus talks, a dynamic that was not as prominent in the past.
Although it is worth noting that the ongoing trend
of de-escalation in the region could motivate certain Arab states to act as
mediators between Turkey and Syria, potentially altering the situation in the
opposite direction.
Russia is widely regarded as the pivotal player capable of aligning
the shifting dynamics and facilitating a deal.
However, thus far, Moscow's success has been limited to getting
people to the negotiation table.
While there is a possibility that Putin could leverage the new
realities to achieve more substantial progress, it would require significant
resources and attention from Moscow.
Russia’s overwhelming role
It is uncertain whether Russia is willing to take on such an overwhelming
role at this time, given its focus on the war in Ukraine.
It is also important to acknowledge that even if Russia fully
commits to this endeavor, its efforts may still face challenges.
Assad's improved relations with Arab states have bolstered his
maneuverability, particularly in relation to his allies.
This growing support network could embolden Assad to resist
pressure from Russia, especially when significant compromises are demanded.
Unless these shifting dynamics align perfectly, the talks between
Turkey and Syria are destined to remain a staged performance, lacking true
commitment to achieve significant progress beyond mere camera-friendly
gestures.
While no immediate military escalations are anticipated between
the two nations, the Syrian and Turkish soldiers deployed on the ground will
continue to be treated as pawns on the negotiating chessboard.
Dr. Haid Haid is a Syrian columnist and a consulting
associate fellow of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program.
Twitter: @HaidHaid22
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