With
the war in Gaza reverberating around the world, it is hard to hear anything
above the noise. Yet an
interview with Ukraine's commander-in-chief last week came through loud and clear, sparking both
an internal crisis in Kyiv and an international debate on the future of the
conflict.
اضافة اعلان
General
Valery Zaluzhny is the man leading the Ukrainian war against Russia's invasion.
For him to voice publicly that the fighting had reached a stalemate was
astonishing, even shocking. Yet that was his conclusion: “Just like in the
first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a
stalemate,” he said. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful
breakthrough.”
Then came Gaza, and as Palestinian casualties mounted and Western leaders struggled to even pronounce “cease-fire,” the exceptions to global rules offered to Western allies became clear.
It
was a surprising admission, which unsurprisingly brought an
immediate rebuke from Ukraine's political
leadership. “This is not a stalemate,” said Ukraine's President Volodymyr
Zelensky, clearly concerned by the characterization and its impact on Western
support.
It
was also a rather obvious statement about the current situation. That the
Ukraine war is at a stalemate has been clear for weeks, yet it has taken the
Gaza war to make that reality clear.
Ukraine’s spring counter-offensive was meant to be a military storm that would
finally shift the tide of battle. From the beginning it was plagued by a
lack of equipment and when it finally got
started in the summer, it spluttered rather than shocked.
Before
the counteroffensive began in June, Ukraine had managed to regain territory
from the Russians, mainly around Kharkiv in the east and Kherson in the south.
But
since the operation got underway, progress has been slow-going. Across the
almost 1,000 kilometers of heavily fortified front line, there has been
practically no change. Zoom out from the map of the vast territory occupied by
Russian forces, and the areas Ukraine has regained are mere specks. The
New York Times estimated last month that the total area retaken by Kyiv across this entire year
of fighting is smaller than the capital Kyiv itself. That's a lot of pain for
little gain.
This
lack of movement has dispirited Ukrainians and their supporters. Allies have
paid an enormous price for backing Ukraine through two bloody years and one
freezing winter. Both the US and European countries have given around
$80 billion each in military and financial assistance. At least five countries, including
Denmark and Norway, have given the equivalent of 1 percent of their annual GDP,
just to keep Ukraine fed and fighting.
Across
the world, the fallout from the Ukraine war has been astonishing, with
disrupted supply chains causing a spike in prices, a lack of food and political
unrest. The Global South was placated by the argument from the West that the
Ukraine invasion represented a fundamental change in the rules of the global
order, and some pain was necessary to rectify it.
That makes Biden himself one of the weakest links in the diplomatic chain that leads to a Ukrainian settlement. He has now staked his personal reputation on two deeply controversial wars, neither of which show any sign of ending soon
Then
came Gaza, and as Palestinian casualties mounted and Western leaders struggled
to even pronounce “cease-fire,” the exceptions to global rules offered to
Western allies became clear.
But the Gaza war hasn't made clear the Ukrainian stalemate for that reason.
Instead, the sheer focus from Western politicians on Zelensky shielded
Ukraine's leadership from the flagging campaign. Zelensky’s energetic diplomacy
meant that most weeks saw him address one event or another, visiting or being
visited by Western politicians. The reality of the war was lost in a whirlwind
of cameras and soundbites.
Now,
with Gaza taking up the world's political attention, the lack of front pages
about the Ukraine war somehow makes the reality starker. When the politics was
in constant flux, it was easy to ignore the frozen battle lines. Now, it is
harder to ignore, hence why the splits within Ukraine have become clearer.
There
are signs that Western allies are beginning to search for a way out.
Reports
in the US media, based on anonymous sources, have
suggested the topic of peace negotiations have been broached with Ukraine at the highest level.
For
now, the official line continues to be that the West, and especially the United
States, will stand by Ukraine as long as the country needs help. In reality,
though, Washington has priorities of its own, and a contentious and fractious
election cycle is looming next year, at which President Joe Biden’s handling of
the Ukraine conflict will be an important part of the debate.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin will be happy to see Biden’s likely opponent Donald Trump return to the presidency – which means there is almost no chance that Russia will negotiate while the US election campaigns are in full swing. Far better to keep the front lines frozen and let Biden take the blame.
That
makes Biden himself one of the weakest links in the diplomatic chain that leads
to a Ukrainian settlement. He has now staked his personal reputation on two
deeply controversial wars, neither of which show any sign of ending soon.
Meanwhile,
Vladimir Putin will be happy to see Biden’s likely opponent Donald Trump return
to the presidency – which means there is almost no chance that Russia will
negotiate while the US election campaigns are in full swing. Far better to keep
the front lines frozen and let Biden take the blame.
If there
is no reason for Moscow to end the conflict, then the battle lines could be
frozen for at least the next year.
Zelensky
has staked his political life on being an uncompromising wartime leader. As it
becomes clear Ukraine's army cannot deliver victory – when even the head of the
army says so – it won't be long before Ukraine's allies look to put their
faith, not in a wartime leader, but in someone who can deliver peace, possibly
at any cost.
Faisal Al Yafai is currently writing
a book on the Middle East and is a frequent commentator on international TV
news networks. He has worked for news outlets such as The Guardian and the BBC,
and reported on the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Asia and Africa. X: @FaisalAlYafai
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