Without any doubt, Volodymyr Zelensky’s whirlwind “surprise”
visit last week to three European capitals — London, Paris, and Brussels — was
an immensely successful trip, despite the fact that he could not get any
clear-cut pledge from his friends for fighter jets, a top priority on his
agenda at the moment.
اضافة اعلان
The timing of the trip was very strategically important for
two key reasons: the impending anniversary of the Russian invasion as an
emotional signpost; and the much-awaited spring offensive by the Russians in
the coming weeks — which some believe has already started.
After a failed bid to inflict a dark and harsh winter on
Ukraine, Putin is now desperate to win more territories to generate momentum
for his spring offensive. The ferocious Russian attacks on Bakhmut, which has
held out for months in bloody defiance against the invading forces, is a part
of Putin’s new war plan to unleash a massive spring offensive to further annex
more territories inside Ukraine, putting pressure on Kyiv.
In his speech to the European Parliament, the president said Ukraine’s soldiers are battling the "most anti-European force" in the world and linked Ukraine’s fate to that of Europe as a whole.
Sensing this strategy, Zelensky is making desperate attempts
to galvanize military support from Western capitals. Thus came his lightning
tour, with a hectic itinerary that included meeting with British PM Rishi
Sunak, an address to the British Parliament, an audience with the UK’s King
Charles, meetings and dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron and German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Paris, and then an address to the European Parliament
in Brussels.
Zelensky’s trip seemed to have two main objectives. The
first was to revitalize the moral support of Europe at this crucial phase of
the war. The second was to renew the request for fighter aircraft, particularly
British Typhoon jets or similar machines. In terms of meeting the former goal,
the Ukrainian president was largely successful. He also saw some rudimentary
success on the question of fighter jets.
Free Europe, free UkraineZelensky, whose wartime signature attire — an olive-green
sweatshirt, cargo pants, and combat boots — has become globally recognized,
intuitively evoked European sentiment during his addresses to the British
parliament and the European parliament.
In his speech to the European Parliament, the president said
Ukraine’s soldiers are battling the "most anti-European force" in the
world and linked Ukraine’s fate to that of Europe as a whole.
"Free Europe cannot be imagined without free
Ukraine," he implored.
Pleas for planesWhile his speeches touched the right chords at the right
time, Zelensky struggled to find many sympathetic ears for his request for
warplanes. It had taken him almost a year of intensive canvassing to get a
positive nod from European capitals and Washington for the supply of battle
tanks. His case had been strong, but NATO leadership had been hesitant to yield
to his request on the pretext of possible direct collision with Moscow.
Supplies are running out, and without fighter jets or longer-range missiles, he said, there is a risk of "stagnation" in his country's fight against Russia
Now, after getting the green light for tanks, Zelensky is
seriously pleading for fighter jets, too. He warned that supplies are running
out, and without fighter jets or longer-range missiles, he said, there is a
risk of "stagnation" in his country's fight against Russia. As an
emotional gesture to support his case, he presented the UK with a Ukrainian
pilot's helmet as he asked for fighter jets to be sent to combat the Russian
invasion.
According to a report by the International Institute for
Strategic Studies, at the beginning of the conflict, Ukraine had a modest air
force consisting of Soviet-era jets, estimated to include around 120
combat-capable units. Due to the ongoing war, the number of aircraft has dropped
drastically, with experts claiming that Ukraine now possesses a limited air
capacity.
Another important factor is that the battle tanks recently
promised by the US, Germany, and the UK will not be able to perform optimally
unless they have a reasonable air coverage. With a meager air force, Ukraine
will not be able to utilize these sophisticated battle machines at the ideal
level. This explains Zelensky’s eagerness to acquire warplanes to counter the
incessant attacks by Russian forces.
No jets… for nowBut the jets request
is not likely to find a positive response anytime soon, with a firm “no” from
US President Joe Biden and an even firmer rejection by Germany’s Scholz. As
demonstrated over the past year, initial rejections of forms of military aid to
Ukraine have often been reversed only after months of internal debates.
Scholtz is particularly
cautious about the ongoing race among the European countries to “outcompete
each other” in providing military packages to Ukraine. In an interview last
week with Tagesspiegel news outlet, the chancellor reasserted his refusal to
countenance jets, saying: “The question of combat aircraft does not arise at
all. I can only advise against entering into a constant competition to outbid
each other when it comes to weapons systems.”
The UK’s Sunak was
also quite wary of making any direct commitments regarding providing Typhoon planes
for Ukraine. While Sunak did say that "nothing is off the table when it
comes to assisting the war effort in Ukraine”, and that fighter jets "are
part of the conversation", he offered ostensible excuses for his soft
refusal to supply the equipment right-out. These included the long pilot
training required to fly the aircraft, supply chain complications, and a
compromised domestic inventory.
Pilot
trainingEventually,
however, Zelensky was successful in obtaining a promise for the training of
Ukrainian pilots by the UK’s Royal Air Force.
"The training will ensure that pilots will have the ability to operate advanced NATO-standard fighter jets in the future, as part of building their long-term capabilities."
By
offering to train Ukrainian pilots, Rishi Sunak has reflexively yielded to
Zelensky's pleas. However, Sunak has carefully framed the proposal as a part of
a comprehensive plan to empower Ukraine to have control over its skies in the
future. He stated: "The training will ensure that pilots will have the
ability to operate advanced NATO-standard fighter jets in the future, as part
of building their long-term capabilities."
The
British offer to train Ukrainian pilots on modern fighter jets is a carefully
couched hint to other NATO countries that, at some point it, they may also be
called on to provide modern jets to help Ukraine defend its airspace from
the Russian air force.
So,
Zelensky, a comedian-turned-politician-turned-war campaigner, has been able to
at least gain a foothold in his attempts to obtain European fighter jets.
Still, a lot depends upon how the Ukraine war unfolds in the next few months.
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