BERLIN — Devastating
floods in Germany and other parts of western
Europe have been described as a "catastrophe", a "war
zone", and "unprecedented".
اضافة اعلان
With more than 150 people dead and the toll still climbing, many are asking:
How did this happen and why has it been so bad?
Exceptional weather
"Masses of air loaded with water had been blocked at high altitude by
cold temperatures, which made them stagnate for four days over the
region," Jean Jouzel, a climatologist and former vice-president of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), told AFP.
Between 100 and 150mm of rain fell between July 14 and 15, according to the
German weather service — an amount that would normally be seen over two
months.
Europe has been hit repeatedly by severe flooding before, but this week has
been "exceptional in terms of both the amount of water and the
violence" with which it was dumped, according to German hydrologist Kai
Schroeter.
Global warming?
Many European politicians have squarely blamed global warming for the
disaster, while Germany's far-right AfD has accused them of
"instrumentalizing" the floods to promote a climate-protection
agenda.
"We cannot yet say with certainty that this event is linked to global
warming," Schroeter told AFP, but "global warming makes events like
this more likely".
In technical terms, climate change means the earth is becoming warmer so
more water is evaporating, which "leads to larger water masses in the
atmosphere", increasing the risk of intense rainfall, he said.
The IPCC has also said global warming boosts the likelihood of extreme
weather events.
Small rivers
overwhelmed
The worst-hit areas have been those near small rivers or tributaries without
flood defenses that have quickly become overwhelmed by the volume of rain and
burst their banks.
"The Rhine is used to floods" and cities along it have built
protections, unlike the towns and villages along the region's smaller rivers,
Armin Laschet, head of the hard-hit North Rhine-Westphalia region, said.
"When rivers are slower and wider, the water rises less quickly and
there is more time to prepare," said hydrologist Schroeter.
Lack of awareness
Local authorities have come under fire in Germany for not evacuating people
soon enough.
"Forecasters ... issued warnings, yet the warnings were not taken
seriously and preparations were inadequate," said Hannah Cloke, a
professor of hydrology at the UK's University of Reading.
Some residents were also simply unaware of the risks of such violent
flooding, with dozens found dead in their cellars.
"Some victims underestimated the danger and did not follow two basic
rules during heavy rainfall. Firstly, avoid basements where water penetrates.
Secondly, switch off the electricity immediately," Armin Schuster,
chairman of the BBK, a state agency specializing in natural disasters, told the
Bild daily.
Urban planning
Some experts have pointed to the dangers of poor urban planning and the
increasing amount of concrete at the heart of a heavily industrialized, densely
populated region of Europe.
The affected regions had already seen unusually high rainfall in recent
weeks, meaning the soil was saturated and unable to absorb the excess water.
When the ground is covered with man-made materials like concrete, the soil
is less able to absorb water, increasing the risk of flooding.
"Urbanization ... has played a role. Would the toll have been as high
40 years ago?" Jouzel asked.
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