Lithium, the common ingredient in almost all
electric-car batteries, has become so precious that it is often called white
gold. But something surprising has happened recently: The metal’s price has
fallen, helping to make electric vehicles more affordable.
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Since January, the price of lithium has dropped by nearly 20
percent, according to Benchmark Minerals, even as sales of electric vehicles
have soared. Cobalt, another important battery material, has fallen by more
than half. Copper, essential to electric motors and batteries, has slipped by
about 18 percent, even though US mines and copper-rich countries like Peru are
struggling to increase production.
The sharp moves have confounded many analysts who predicted
that prices would stay high, or even climb higher, slowing the transition to
cleaner forms of transportation, an essential component of efforts to limit
climate change.
Instead, the drop in commodity prices has made it easier for
carmakers to cut prices for electric vehicles. This month, Tesla lowered the
prices of its two most expensive cars, the Model S sedan and Model X sport
utility vehicle, by thousands of dollars.
The metal, uniquely suited for batteries because of its ability to store energy, costs from about $5,000 to $8,000 per tonne to produce. It sells for 10 times that amount
That followed cuts in January by Tesla to its more
affordable Model 3 and Model Y, and by Ford Motor to its Mustang Mach-E. The
average price of an electric vehicle in the US fell by $1,000 in February
compared with January, according to Kelley Blue Book.
“For electric vehicles, the major roadblock is cost,” said
Kang Sun, the CEO of Amprius Technologies, a young battery maker that this
month announced plans for a factory in Colorado. The falling price of lithium,
he said, “is going to promote EV sales.”
Sun thinks prices could fall much further because demand for
the metal has not risen as fast as some in the industry expected.
Why have lithium prices declined?As with any commodity, there is a wide range of opinion on
what has caused the recent drop in prices and on how much lithium will cost in
the coming months and years.
Some analysts said the falling price of lithium was caused
by short-term factors like slowing sales growth in Europe and China after
subsidies for electric car purchases expired. But other industry experts said
the drop suggested that new mines and processing plants were solving the
lithium problem sooner than many analysts had thought was possible.
Even after falling so much, lithium prices remain so high
that mining and processing the metal is an unusually profitable business. The
metal, uniquely suited for batteries because of its ability to store energy,
costs from about $5,000 to $8,000 per tonne to produce. It sells for 10 times
that amount, according to Mobility Impact Partners, a New York private equity
firm that invests in the electric vehicle industry, among other areas.
Given those fat profit margins, investors and banks are
eager to invest in, or lend to, mining and processing projects. The US federal
government is awarding grants worth tens of millions of dollars to lithium
prospectors and processors.
“You can’t have profit margins that are 10 times what it
costs to extract,” said Shweta Natarajan, a partner at Mobility Impact Partners
who has analyzed the lithium market. “You will see that come down.”
“Financing is very easy to come by,” Natarajan added. “There
is no reason to think you wouldn’t have new projects opening up to meet any shortages.”
Lithium and climate targetsBut others, including members of the Biden administration,
are less confident. The supply of lithium has to increase by 42-fold by 2050 to
support a transition to clean energy, said Jose W. Fernandez, the undersecretary
for economic growth, energy and the environment at the State Department.
The supply of lithium has to increase by 42-fold by 2050 to support a transition to clean energy… “We have to find additional sources of supply because 42 times is a lot. Right now, we don’t have enough.”
“We have to find additional sources of supply because 42
times is a lot,” Fernandez said in an interview. “Right now, we don’t have
enough.”
There is plenty of lithium in the world. But it was not
considered very valuable until sales of electric vehicles began to take off in
the past few years. As demand soared, the industry rushed to start new mines,
and refineries increased their capacity to process the ore.
“The mining is not what is driving the costs,” said Bold
Baatar, the CEO of the copper production unit at mining giant Rio Tinto. “It’s
the availability of processing facilities.”
Chinese monopolyMost lithium refineries are in China, and few managers and
engineers outside that country know how to build processing plants. Beijing’s
near-monopoly on an essential resource alarmed the Biden administration, which
has allocated billions of dollars to encourage companies to develop lithium
mines and refineries in the US or in countries with which it shares close
political and economic ties.
Supplies of lithium and other critical materials are a
national security issue, Fernandez said. Last year, the administration
established the Minerals Security Partnership, he said, a group that includes
the European Union and 12 industrialized nations, including Australia, Japan,
and Britain, to locate mining opportunities and financing, and to promote
recycling.
The US Department of Energy is doling out $3 billion in
grants to create a domestic battery supply chain. In addition, the Inflation
Reduction Act, which President Joe Biden signed into law last year, provides
tax credits for battery production.
Automakers, fearful of lithium shortages and rising prices,
have taken steps to ensure a steady supply. They have signed contracts with
lithium suppliers that require them to buy certain quantities of the metal. In
some cases, carmakers are getting into the lithium business more directly.
Tesla said this month that it would build a lithium processing plant near
Corpus Christi, Texas.
“Even when the price comes down from its elevated levels, there is still is a very healthy profit margin.”
General Motors said in January that it would invest $650
million in Lithium Americas, which is developing a mine in Nevada known as
Thacker Pass. The deal makes GM the largest customer and shareholder of Lithium
Americas.
Those investments could turn out to be money losers if the
price of lithium continued to fall, analysts have warned.
New technologiesThere is also a risk that improvements in battery technology
could affect demand for lithium in unexpected ways.
Solid-state batteries being developed by several companies
would require even more lithium than batteries in use today, increasing demand.
But those batteries probably will not appear in mass-produced vehicles for
several years. Other advances in production techniques and chemistry would
allow batteries to be smaller and lighter without sacrificing performance, reducing
the need for lithium.
Shifting technology has already hit cobalt. The price of
that metal plunged in part because of the increasing popularity of batteries
made without cobalt from lithium, iron, and phosphate, a combination known as
LFP. Stockpiling by a major cobalt supplier may also have hit prices, analysts
say.
LFP batteries are heavier than batteries made with cobalt,
but they are significantly less expensive and last longer. And LFP batteries do
not come with the taint associated with cobalt, most of which comes from Congo,
where mining operations are known for child labor and abysmal working
conditions.
Ford Motor said in February that it would spend $3.5 billion
to build a plant in Michigan to produce LFP batteries using technology from
Contemporary Amperex Technology, or CATL, a Chinese company that is the world’s
largest battery manufacturer.
No technology on the horizon would eliminate lithium from
mass-produced car batteries. For that reason, few analysts are predicting that
the price of lithium will fall as low as it did in 2020, when it dropped below
$10 per kilogram.
“Even when the price comes down from its elevated levels,”
Natarajan, of Mobility Impact Partners, said, “there still is a very healthy
profit margin.”
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