TUNIS — A bitter showdown between
Morocco and its arch-rival Algeria over the disputed Western Sahara territory is
causing diplomatic rifts with other nations and even risks sparking a
full-blown conflict, analysts say.
اضافة اعلان
“We’re seeing a diplomatic war, where both sides are
resorting to anything short of open conflict,” said Riccardo Fabiani, North
Africa project director at think-tank the International Crisis Group.
Western Sahara, a Spanish colony until 1975, is
mostly desert but boasts immense phosphate resources and rich Atlantic fishing
grounds.
About 80 percent of it is controlled by Morocco and
20 percent by the Algeria-backed
Polisario Front which seeks self-determination
for the local Sahrawi people.
The conflict has long simmered, but its dynamics
changed in 2020 when then US president Donald Trump recognised Moroccan
sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for the kingdom’s normalization of
relations with Israel.
Emboldened by Washington’s backing, Rabat has been
playing hardball ever since to persuade other states to follow suit,
heightening tensions with Algiers, which has since cut diplomatic relations
with Rabat.
Last week, Morocco reacted angrily when Tunisia’s
President Kais Saied greeted Polisario head Brahim Ghali on a red carpet at
Tunis airport as he arrived for a Japan-Africa investment summit.
Slamming the act as “hostile” and “unnecessarily
provocative”, Morocco immediately cancelled its participation in the
high-profile conference and withdrew its ambassador for consultations —
prompting Tunisia to respond in kind.
The incident showed that “the Western Sahara
conflict is starting to have repercussions beyond bilateral Morocco and
Algerian relations,” Fabiani said. “From now in Morocco will consider Tunisia
as part of the pro-Algerian camp.”
‘Unfreezing of conflict’
Morocco’s 2020 deal with
Trump also reset Rabat’s ties with Israel and opened the door to military
cooperation.
Algeria, which has long supported the
Palestinian cause and sees Israeli influence on its doorstep as a threat, cut ties entirely
with Morocco the following August, citing “hostile acts” — including the
alleged use of Israeli spyware against its senior officials.
Fabiani said the shifting dynamic had meant “the
unfreezing” of the Western Sahara conflict.
On the ground, this has taken the form of repeated
clashes since late 2020 between Morocco’s military and the Polisario, which had
agreed to a ceasefire in 1991.
On the diplomatic front, Rabat’s more assertive
stance was evident in a year-long diplomatic dispute with Madrid.
In April 2021, Ghali visited Spain to be treated for
COVID-19, sparking a row that only ended after Madrid dropped its decades-long
stance of neutrality over Western Sahara and backed a Moroccan plan for limited
self-rule there.
And last month, Morocco’s King Mohammed VI demanded
in a speech that his country’s other allies “clarify” their positions on the
issue, calling it “the prism through which Morocco views its international
environment”.
But observers say that Morocco is not the only party
in the region to be behaving more assertively.
Algeria is Africa’s top natural gas exporter with
pipelines directly to Europe, and in recent months has hosted a steady stream
of top European officials hoping to win favor and new gas contracts.
Algeria, Africa’s largest country, has been flush
with cash since energy prices soared following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“During the last decade, Morocco geared up its
diplomacy, especially in Africa, and became more assertive with some EU
members,” said Dalia Ghanem, a senior analyst at the EU Institute for Security
Studies.
At the same time Algeria, under late president
Abdelaziz Bouteflika, “lagged behind”, she said. “Now, Algeria wants to get
back on the regional arena and be the regional leader in Africa.”
‘Delicate and dangerous’
“There was a big Algerian
campaign to recruit Tunisia to its side,” said Anthony Dworkin, a senior policy
fellow at think-tank the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Tunisia, Algeria’s smaller neighbor, is struggling
with a grinding economic crisis and has also seen political turmoil since Saied
staged a dramatic power grab in July last year.
Dworkin warned that there was now “a disturbing
trend of everything in the region being seen in a binary way through the prism
of Algerian-Moroccan rivalry”.
“Morocco is
pushing a narrative of ‘you’re with us or against us’, and there has been some
similar rhetoric from Algeria,” he added, warning European governments to seek
balanced relationships with all sides.
“It’s a delicate and dangerous moment.”
Last weekend, the UN’s
Western Sahara envoy Staffan de Mistura visited the region, but few observers see any prospect of progress
in long-suspended negotiations.
“The risk of a military conflict is low, because
neither side wants it, but it shouldn’t be underestimated,” Fabiani warned,
noting that Morocco and Algeria have no diplomatic ties through which to
deescalate tensions.
“All it needs is a border incident and a
miscalculation.”
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