The capture of the Tigray regional capital by its ousted
rulers this week was a dramatic setback for Ethiopia's government, diplomats
and analysts say, opening a new chapter in a brutal war but by no means
bringing it to an end.
اضافة اعلان
A showdown is brewing over rich farmlands in the west of
Tigray and humanitarian agencies say they still can't deliver enough aid to
hundreds of thousands of people facing famine.
Forces loyal to the
Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF),
the party that dominated Ethiopia's government for nearly three decades, took
control of Mekelle on Monday night, seven months after they withdrew from the
city.
The government of Prime Minister
Abiy Ahmed, whose 2018
ascent marked the end of TPLF power, played down the reversal. It declared a
unilateral humanitarian ceasefire and said its soldiers left Mekelle to tend to
greater security threats elsewhere.
But the TPLF and some international observers described the
turnaround as a rout for the military, the Ethiopian National Defense Force
(ENDF).
Tigrayan forces had launched a major offensive as Ethiopia
geared up for national elections on June 21. Residents and diplomats said they
captured towns to the north and west of Mekelle, and pushed into the center of
Adigrat, the northern region's second-biggest city.
"They were surrounding Mekelle for two to three
days," one senior diplomat in the capital, Addis Ababa, told Reuters.
"The ENDF realized they were going to get slaughtered or leave. They
decided to leave."
Reuters couldn't independently verify the residents' and
diplomats' accounts.
Territorial gains
The TPLF rapidly seized control over the region's main
cities and roads, largely without a fight, as pro-government forces withdrew to
the contested west of Tigray, according to a
UN report.
On Thursday, the TPLF vowed to drive the military and its
allies — troops from neighboring Eritrea and the Ethiopian region of Amhara —
from the rest of Tigray.
"We are closing in on both the western and southern
parts of our territory. ... so we can fully liberate every square inch of
Tigray," TPLF spokesman Getachew Reda told Reuters by satellite phone.
Col. Getnet Adane, Ethiopia's military spokesperson, and
Billene Seyoum, spokesperson for the prime minister, did not respond to
questions about the TPLF's and diplomats' assertions.
In his first public comments after Mekelle's capture, Abiy
said the city was no longer the "center of gravity for conflicts". He
said the army "was being stabbed in the back by its own", a reference
to Tigrayan civilians he accused of denying water to exhausted soldiers,
burying weapons in churchyards, and lying to aid workers to get extra food
rations for the TPLF.
Abiy's government has been battling the TPLF since early
November, when it accused the then-governing party of Tigray of attacking
military bases across the region, a charge the TPLF has denied.
The fighting followed months of deteriorating relations
between the TPLF and the government. The TPLF accuses the government of
discrimination against ethnic Tigrayans and attempts to centralize power. The
government says it is cracking down on a TPLF "criminal clique".
Eritrea and the Amhara region sent troops into Tigray to
support the army in the first days of the war. Eritrea fought a brutal war
against Ethiopia from 1998 to 2000 and "will be absolutely worried,
possibly even panicked by resurgent Tigrayan forces", said Murithi Mutiga,
Horn of Africa project director at the International Crisis Group.
Eritrea's information minister did not respond to a request
for comment.
Amhara officials say they have taken back a swathe of
territory, equal to about a quarter of Tigray, that was historically theirs and
have no intention of leaving.
Tigrayan officials say the western area has long been home
to both ethnic groups and accuse Amhara forces of driving out hundreds of
thousands of ethnic Tigrayans, which the Amhara regional administration
strongly denies.
The fighting is believed to have killed thousands and
displaced more than 2 million. The United Nations has spoken of possible war
crimes by all sides, including mass killings of civilians and gang-rapes.
Aid blocked
The government controls electricity, telecommunications and
internet connections, which are out throughout Tigray, the UN said on Thursday.
Most roads into the region, where the UN says more than 350,000 people face
famine conditions, are blocked.
Government officials on Friday denied accusations by the
TLPF and humanitarian agencies that the government was preventing aid from
reaching Tigray and said it would support UN flights to the region.
On Thursday, two bridges over the Tekeze River near the
northern town of Shire were destroyed, making it even more difficult to deliver
aid, the UN World Food Program said.
It was not immediately clear who was responsible. The
government blamed the TPLF. Residents and humanitarian officials pointed the
finger at the military or Amhara forces.
Shire and other towns east of the river are now controlled
by Tigrayan forces. Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers withdrew to areas west and
south of the river, according to two security officials in the town of Humera,
in Amhara-controlled western Tigray.
Amare Goshu, who heads Abiy's Prosperity Party in the area
and works closely with the military and Amhara regional forces, said they were
prepared to make a stand if TPLF fighters crossed the river.
"We have a right to defend ourselves," he told
Reuters.
On Thursday, Humera was teeming with Ethiopian soldiers,
Amhara regional police and local militiamen, who sat under trees in outdoor
coffee shops, their rifles within arms' reach.
Truckloads of Eritrean soldiers roared down dusty roads in
hand-painted camouflage pick-up trucks, wearing their trademark black plastic
sandals and scowling when photographed.
Zewdu Tarekegn, an ethnic Amhara farmer, said the TPLF
should not try to attack Humera.
"A polished gun is waiting for them," he said.
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