RABAT — A global fertilizer supply shock
deepened by Russia’s Ukraine invasion has brought boom times for the North
African phosphate superpower Morocco and earned the kingdom new diplomatic
capital.اضافة اعلان
Rabat is using the leverage especially in the decades-old
fight over the disputed desert territory of Western Sahara, a former Spanish
colony also claimed by Algeria-backed rebels, analysts say.
Morocco is set to chalk up record revenues for a
second year running as farmers worldwide scramble for phosphate, made scarce by
sanctions against top world producer Russia and a Chinese ban on exports.
Phosphate is a key ingredient of artificial
fertilizers, which are vital for industrial agriculture and global grain
supplies despite the long-term damage they inflict on soil and groundwater.
“It’s a strategic mineral for the future because
it’s crucial for global food security,” said Abderrahim Handouf, an
agricultural policy expert.
“As populations grow, fertilizers are the most
effective way to increase farm productivity.”
According to Morocco’s state-owned phosphates firm
OCP, the kingdom controls around 31 percent of the international trade in the
substance.
The OCP, which holds a national monopoly in the
trade, is on track to record more than 131 billion dirhams ($12.4 billion) in
revenue this year, up 56 percent on 2021 — already a bumper year.
‘Geopolitical tensions’
Even before the start of the
year, prices had been edging higher as the world emerged from the COVID-19
pandemic and market leaders like China imposed export restrictions, said sector
expert Mounir Halim.
There was also “strong demand from India, one of the
world’s biggest importers, which had exhausted its stocks,” Halim told AFP.
Then as Western powers imposed sanctions on Russia
after its invasion of Ukraine, prices of fertilizer shot up.
That made Morocco a vital alternative supplier. The
kingdom’s exports of phosphates and their derivatives jumped by two thirds
year-on-year in the first nine months of 2022, according to the latest official
figures.
Morocco has around 70 percent of the world’s
phosphate reserves, and has been mining four sites since 1921, including in the
disputed Western Sahara.
Morocco’s OCP has ramped up its production capacity
by a factor of four since 2008, hitting 12 million tonnes last year, on target
to reach 15 million by the end of 2023.
That makes it a major player in a global market
fearful of further supply shocks.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warned in a
report this year that “fertilizer supplies remain restricted, stocks are
depleted, and geopolitical tensions could spark additional supply restrictions
at short notice.”
Phosphate diplomacy
The result is that Morocco
is enjoying not only an influx of cash, but also growing diplomatic muscle,
particularly on Western Sahara.
The kingdom sees
the vast stretch of desert as an integral part of its territory, but the
Polisario movement backed by Morocco’s arch-rival Algeria seeks independence
there.
Rabat has placed the question at the heart of its
diplomacy.
King Mohammed VI in August demanded that Morocco’s
allies “clarify” their stances on the issue, calling it “the prism through
which Morocco views its international environment”.
According to L’Economiste, a Moroccan
French-language newspaper, OCP has become “the economic arm of Moroccan
diplomacy”.
In September, Rabat recalled a shipment of 50,000
tonnes of fertilizer destined for Peru after Lima restored diplomatic relations
with the Polisario’s self-proclaimed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.
Sticks and carrots
But as well as sticks, OCP
offers carrots.
The firm has been expanding its presence across
Africa, with branches in 16 countries, a fertilizer factory in Nigeria and a
deal signed in September to open another one in Ethiopia.
It has also put aside four million tonnes of
fertilizer “to support food security in Africa” next year, it said.
This year Morocco exported half a billion tonnes of
fertilizer to various African countries, either for free, as aid or at
preferential prices.
Morocco is even looking across the Atlantic for new
markets.
In September it signed a deal with Guatemala
focusing on “fertilizers and farming”, according to the two countries’ foreign
ministers.
In the same statement, Guatemala gave its backing to
Morocco’s autonomy plan for the Western Sahara.
But while OCP is a potential source of international
leverage on the issue, Morocco does not demand public support for its position
with every contract signed.
“Morocco is using its economic arms in a pragmatic
way, not in a transactional way,” said international relations expert Tajeddine
El Husseini.
But, he added, economic ties can have “a political
impact”.
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