AMMAN — While experts agree that the Basra-Haditha-Aqaba oil
pipeline was hindered by consecutive misfortunes, such as the Gulf War, the US
invasion of Iraq, sectarian war, the rise of Daesh, and most recently the
COVID-19 pandemic, they also agree that the abating of these challenges will
not necessarily allow the project, which has been decades in the making, to
finally become a reality.
اضافة اعلان
“This pipeline is not a new idea, I conducted a feasibility
study on the project in 1986. Over time, the project changed bit by bit and
today we are looking at challenges, yet solutions are also available,” said
Khalid Shamari, director of AlKhuld Center think tank.
Despite these delays, the project remains on the agenda of
both Jordanian and Iraqi decision-makers.
The political front
“The United States should put its weight behind a
north-south energy corridor, in which Iraq serves as an energy hub between
ever-friendlier Gulf states and Turkey, ultimately forming an export bridge to
Europe. Washington should also support the Basra-Haditha-Aqaba pipeline project
to bring Iraqi oil and gas to Jordan,” James F. Jeffrey, former US ambassador
to Iraq and Turkey, argued in a paper published in the Washington Institute for
Near East Policy in 2018.
His argument was based on the fact that Iraq has only one
outlet to export its oil, which is through Iran, leaving the war-torn country
dependent on its neighbor.
Three years later, Jordan and Iraq are revisiting the idea
of the Basara-Aqaba oil pipeline. However, the megaproject does not come
without both internal and external opposition.
Iranian influence in Iraq was identified by experts as a
major challenge facing the project.
An oil expert based in Baghdad who preferred anonymity, told Jordan News, that “Iran seeks to isolate Iraq from its neighbors to keep
it dependent on its energy and maritime gateway.”
“The Iranian influence inside Iran is clear. Tehran is using
soft power in economic, political and social spheres and still has the last
word on projects such as this one, which might be rejected by Iran’s agents in
Iraq,” Jassem Mohammad, director of the European Centre for Counterterrorism
and Intelligence Studies, told Jordan News.
“There are some in Iraq who would oppose any attempts to
better Iraq’s relations with its neighbors. Those are usually influenced by the
Iranian stances. The start point for the oil pipeline would be on the southern
region of Iraq, bordering Iran, where there will be a need to reach certain
understandings with Iranian agents to be able to operate,” said Moyad Windawi,
a strategic security expert.
“This project serves the interests of both Iraq and Jordan
and it could create a sort of political and economic stability to Iraq,”
Shamari said.
“This is a very important project, it is expected to last
for the next 50 years. Regarding funding, the situation in Iraq is hard
nowadays, and some wouldn’t want this project unless it is privately funded,”
the Windawi said.
The security front
Although Daesh saw a defeat in Iraq, some believe that the
terrorist group still operates through scattered cells.
“The security situation in Iraq remains fragile, because of
the political rivalry between factions ... The project passes through areas in
Western Iraq, Al Anbar-Haditha, a geographic area that is extremely hard to
secure. These areas still harbor Daesh cells,” Mohammad said.
The analyst pointed out that some stakeholders and actors
may deem this project to contradict their interests, and thus may mobilize
armed agents to disrupt and sabotage the pipeline.
On the other hand, Shammari believes that the security
situation is better than it was a few years back. “Things are more stable now
and the security threats are minimal,” he said.
Windawi dismissed the threats of sabotage, saying that they
are “not a big issue”.
The economic front
The pipeline, if it manifests, is expected to transfer 1.5
million oil barrel per day to the port of Aqaba. Experts estimate that Jordan
could make around $2 per barrel in transport fees. The pipeline would run over
1700KM and is estimated to cost around $14 billion.
A research paper published on the website of the Iraqi Bayan
Center for Planning and Studies in 2020 quoted the former minister of
transport, Amir Abdul-Jabbar, as saying: “There are no economic returns for
Iraq from this pipeline, but Jordan will benefit from it because the cost of
exporting oil through the southern ports does not exceed 10 cents per barrel,
while the cost of exporting through the proposed pipeline is $4.5 per barrel.
This is in addition to losing returns and revenues from ships, and maritime
agencies and services, which will benefit the investors.”
Likewise, Gary Vogler, author of “Iraq and the Politics of
Oil: An Insider’s Perspective”, told Forbes Magazine in 2020: “I personally do
not see the economic driver to install such an expensive project, especially
now that we have the pandemic. But even before the pandemic, such a project would
have poor economics.”
Windawi believes that Iraq’s economy is already in a dire
condition. “The economic situation in Iraq is difficult and finding the
finances might be tough.”
Shamari believes that the solution for funding the pipeline
is through a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) formula.
“These companies [that carry out the BOT contract] will get
their return on investments in several years and then they will transfer the
project to the state, however, I don’t think Jordan will make steps on the
grounds unless they see Iraq doing the same,” he concluded.
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